Hello everyone, I am Lao Lu. I have been on a business trip for nearly a week. Now we will continue with the updates. We missed a good opportunity with Bitcoin. The original plan was to wait until it peaked at $109,700 before we entered a medium-term short position. However, the timing was off, and the price only reached a maximum of $107,000. This is just how fate works sometimes. Looking back at Ethereum, it has already fallen below the key support level of $3,369, which we mentioned in the previous article. Once this level is broken, the bulls basically lose their upward momentum. Now the bears have taken control, but I see an opportunity, and yes, it is the bottom that many people are looking forward to. To conclude, I personally believe that if Bitcoin drops another $6,000 from its current low, and Ethereum drops another $500, we can basically confirm a major bottom.

Ethereum is still in a cyclical downtrend. If we look at the downtrend that started from $3,650, this round of decline still needs an acceleration, which means a rapid drop from a short-term peak at $3,255. According to the downtrend pattern starting from $3,650, the low point of this acceleration should be around $2,750, meaning the bears still have at least $500 of space to play with. As for Ethereum at the moment, the price is still relatively strong. It all depends on Bitcoin, which has basically dropped to its lowest point. Ethereum hasn't actually dropped too much, which is why we dared to take a long position on Ethereum earlier and then go short in the medium term. However, we didn't expect Bitcoin to perform so poorly. Whether on the weekly or daily chart, it is extremely weak. The most frightening part is not how hard Bitcoin is falling, but that it can quickly rebound and repair indicators in a short period. This means that every time you enter a long position, if you get stuck, the price will likely not return to your entry point, which is essentially trying to wipe out all bottom-fishers! We all know that in a downtrend, when prices fall sharply, there is usually an oversold condition, which we often refer to as indicators being oversold. At this time, small cycle indicators will show a bottom divergence pattern. Once this pattern appears, it indicates that the price will have a short-term rise to repair the decline. However, Bitcoin has not done this. Once the indicators show oversold conditions, the hourly chart directly turns into a large bullish candle to repair upwards, and then through oscillation, it repairs the divergence pattern. Based on this continuous repetition of the downtrend, whether in spot or contract buying, it is too early.

According to the current low break and rebound cycle pattern of Ethereum, the rebound will definitely continue to bet on a significant drop below the bottom. The key position is to break the support at $2,900. Once this level is broken, the $2,750 position will be easier to discuss. Recently, the dual currency has been following the old pattern. After breaking the low, it quickly rebounds to near the starting point of the decline, and then initiates a secondary cyclical downtrend. Therefore, when shorting, it is essential to manage the gains and adjust the stop-loss; otherwise, it is easy to eat into the shorting space. Currently, we continue to not look at the technical aspects of the dual currency but rather refer to the downtrend channel line and historical downtrend patterns to speculate. For example, the current decline of Ethereum, from $3,065 to $3,250, then from $3,088 to $3,247, and then back to $3,000, continues to cycle between highs and lows, and we can keep speculating based on this pattern.

Ethereum short at $3,180

Bitcoin short at $93,400

Today: Written by Lao Lu on the evening of November 18, 2025, at 19:48. Please note that all strategies are effective once and cannot be reused!

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