As November begins, the cryptocurrency market faces a severe test, with the demand from Wall Street institutions, once seen as a core support for Bitcoin prices, showing unprecedented signs of wavering. The IBIT Bitcoin spot ETF under BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, has seen its market value shrink by as much as $1.6 billion within a month, marking its worst monthly performance since its launch. Against the backdrop of an overall market downturn and Bitcoin prices briefly falling below $90,000, this is not just a singular "bleeding" for IBIT, but reflects a comprehensive effect of macro liquidity tightening, a decline in institutional investors' risk appetite, and a cooling of altcoin ETF issuances. Does this signal the fading aura of the Web3 bull market, or is the market undergoing a deeper structural adjustment?
I. BlackRock's IBIT Suffers Huge "Bleeding": Institutional Demand Faces Severe Test
BlackRock's IBIT fund, one of the largest Bitcoin spot ETFs globally, experienced its most severe "bleeding" since its inception in November.
Significant Market Value Shrinkage: The redemption amount for IBIT alone reached $1.6 billion that month, leading to a notable decrease in its market value.
Capital Outflow Wave: On November 13, the U.S. stock trading day saw a single-day capital outflow of $866.7 million, marking the second-largest single-day decline in history. The BlackRock IBIT fund was further hit the next day, suffering a single-day drop of $463.1 million, setting a historical record.
Overall ETF Weakness: As of November 17, the net outflow from U.S.-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $2.57 billion, the most severe monthly retracement since its launch in January 2024. This ongoing redemption indicates a weakening of persistent demand and lowers the minimum price needed to attract sellers.
ETF capital flows are directly converted into spot demand through the subscription and redemption processes of authorized participants. When these distributors change their strategies, they eliminate the structural demand that absorbed the issuance of mining stocks and other cyclical supplies.
II. Bitcoin's Deep Drop in Search of a Bottom: Structural Demand Retreats, Strong Macro Headwinds
Against the backdrop of continuous outflows from ETFs, Bitcoin prices have plunged, reflecting the shaking of the market support structure.
Price Low: Bitcoin's monthly decline reached 14.7%, hitting a low of $89,253.78 on November 17, the lowest level since April, before rebounding to around $92,000.
Structural Demand Retreat: This reflects the retreat of structural demand that supported the asset's rise in early 2024 and 2025. Miners are still producing 450 Bitcoins daily, and the market is digesting previous capital inflows.
Macro Background: The macroeconomic environment is tightening, and expectations for rapid interest rate cuts have faded; real yields are rising, and liquidity conditions are cooling. The 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index has reached about 0.80, the highest level since 2022, increasingly resembling a leveraged tech stock.
Increased Volatility: As the absorption capacity of corporations and ETFs weakens, Bitcoin's price movements will increasingly be influenced by short-term traders and macroeconomic sentiment.
III. The Dilemma of Altcoin ETFs: Dimming Stars, Numerous Challenges
With the SEC opening a fast track for crypto ETFs and the regulatory environment becoming clearer, more altcoins are attempting to take the stage on Wall Street. Since last month, eight altcoin ETFs have been approved, but in the overall downturn of the crypto market, these products face limited capital inflows after their launch, making it difficult to significantly boost coin prices in the short term.
General Cooling: Altcoin ETFs such as Solana, XRP, Litecoin, and Hedera have generally faced limited capital inflows and declining prices after their launch. For example, after the Solana ETF went live, the SOL price dropped by 31.34%, the XRP price fell by 12.71% after the XRP ETF launched, and the HBAR price dropped by 25.84% after the Hedera ETF was listed.
Insufficient Capital Attraction: Overall attractiveness remains limited, with some ETFs experiencing several days of zero inflow, and the four types of ETFs only receiving a cumulative net inflow of about $700 million.
Structural Disadvantages of Altcoin ETFs:
Limited Market Size and Liquidity: Bitcoin's market share is close to 60%, while altcoins account for only 19.88%. This results in poor liquidity for the underlying assets of altcoin ETFs.
High Volatility: Altcoins are easily influenced by short-term narratives, exhibiting higher volatility and are viewed as high-risk Beta assets.
Market Manipulation and Transparency Risks: Many altcoins have insufficient liquidity, making them susceptible to price manipulation. The net asset value of ETFs relies on the prices of underlying assets; if altcoin prices are manipulated, it directly affects ETF value, potentially leading to legal risks or regulatory investigations.
Securities Classification Risk: Some altcoins may be classified as unregistered securities, as the SEC is currently promoting a token classification plan.
Lack of Endorsement from Large Institutions: Altcoin ETFs lack the recognition and market acceptance of Bitcoin or Ethereum spot ETFs, especially the endorsement from large institutions like BlackRock. The distribution networks, brand effects, and market trust brought by leading issuers are difficult to replicate.
IV. The Expansion Cycle of Crypto ETFs: Opportunities and Challenges Coexist
Despite the challenges faced by altcoin ETFs, the expansion cycle of crypto ETFs continues.
Accelerated Approvals: Currently, there are 155 ETP (Exchange-Traded Product) applications in the crypto market, covering 35 digital assets. With the end of the U.S. government shutdown, the approval process for these ETFs is expected to accelerate.
Regulatory Support: The SEC has approved general listing standards for crypto ETFs and issued new guidelines allowing crypto ETF issuers to expedite the effectiveness of their filing documents. Additionally, the SEC has significantly removed the previously routine special chapters on cryptocurrencies from its latest fiscal year review focus document.
Staking Function: The introduction of staking functionality is believed to stimulate institutional investor demand. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has issued a new statement indicating that he will work with the IRS to update guidance to provide regulatory support for crypto ETPs that include staking functionality.
Conclusion:
The significant market value shrinkage of BlackRock's IBIT and the deep drop in Bitcoin prices reveal the severe challenges currently facing the crypto market. The weakness of Wall Street institutional demand and the cooling of altcoin ETF launches indicate that the aura of the Web3 bull market is fading. This is not only a test of market deleveraging but also a sign of a structural transformation in the entire crypto industry. However, the expansion cycle of crypto ETFs continues, and with the clarity of the regulatory environment and the introduction of innovative products, the Web3 market still has the opportunity to welcome new development prospects after structural adjustments.
Related Reading: Hong Kong Financial Secretary Xu Zhengyu: International shipping rents will be "tokenized," stablecoin licenses will be issued next year.
Original article: “BlackRock's IBIT Loses $1.6 Billion in Market Value, Is Wall Street's ETF Demand Fading?”
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
