JPMorgan analysts maintained a "neutral" rating on Bullish (BLSH) crypto exchange after it reported third-quarter results that beat revenue and EBITDA expectations.
In a Thursday equity research report, the analysts slightly lowered their December 2026 price target to $45 from $46, and cut their 2025 and 2026 earnings estimates to strip out investment income generated from the company's $1.2 billion IPO proceeds.
The new $45 price target implies roughly 23.3% upside from the company's Thursday closing price of $36.50, according to The Block's data dashboard.
"We maintain our Neutral rating, but lower our price target as we better account for interest income on stablecoins," the analysts said.
For the third quarter, Bullish reported adjusted diluted earnings-per-share of $0.10, in line with Bloomberg consensus. Revenue came in at $77 million, ahead of the $74 million consensus and JPMorgan's $74 million estimate, while adjusted EBITDA of $29 million topped the $26 million expected.
JPMorgan analysts said they view the results as "solid," with subscription services and other (SS&O) revenue of $50 million driving the upside. That figure was up from $12 million in the prior year and beat JPMorgan's $47 million forecast, even with a "seasonally weaker" event schedule.
However, the analysts trimmed estimates as they decided to strip out the high-margin stablecoin promotion income generated on the company's $1.2 billion IPO proceeds from their core earnings model and valuation.
The analysts estimated that approximately $6.2 million of the quarter's SS&O revenue came from promotion payments on the $1.2 billion of IPO proceeds held in stablecoins. Excluding that one-time item, which carries roughly 100% margin, third-quarter adjusted EBITDA would have been closer to $22.4 million, the analysts said.
The firm also lowered its 2025 adjusted EPS estimate to $0.31 from $0.44 and its 2026 estimate to $0.93 from $1.29, primarily to remove the expected investment income on IPO proceeds from both years.
JPMorgan now expects Bullish to generate about $12 million of stablecoin promotion revenue in the fourth quarter from the IPO cash — roughly $37 million annualized in 2027 — which the bank is excluding from its core valuation.
In spite of the estimate reductions, JPMorgan said fourth-quarter trends look strong, setting grounds for a "much more constructive" trading environment for Bullish compared to the third quarter.
"Despite falling market caps, higher volatility is driving trading volumes with reported observed average monthly volatility in October up +46% QoQ in bitcoin and +12% in ethereum," JPMorgan wrote.
Analysts also pointed to the earlier-than-expected launch of options trading and continued U.S. institutional onboarding following the October grant of a New York BitLicense.
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