I do not agree with the view that market cycles are only four years long; I believe this cycle may extend to four and a half or even five years, potentially lasting until 2026.
Compiled & Edited by: Deep Tide TechFlow
Guest: Murad
Podcast Source: MustStopMurad
Original Title: 116 Reasons why Crypto BULL MARKET is NOT OVER
Broadcast Date: November 27, 2025
Key Summary
Do you remember Murad, the king of calls from the last cycle? The one who proposed the Meme Supercycle theory.
He is back again.
In this podcast, Murad shares 116 bullish reasons, data analysis, and on-chain signals indicating that the cryptocurrency market's bull run may continue until 2026.
Murad believes that this market cycle may break the previous four-year pattern and last longer.
Highlights of Insights
Bitcoin may experience parabolic growth in the future, reaching highs of $150,000 to $200,000.
ETF holders have strong long-term confidence in Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin bull market is not over and will continue until 2026.
The stablecoin market is in a supercycle.
Most recent sell-offs have come from traders and short-term holders.
I do not agree with the view that market cycles are only four years long; this cycle may extend to four and a half or even five years, potentially lasting until 2026.
The liquidation volume on the upside (shorting) is significantly higher than on the downside (longing), with more short positions than long positions.
There are 30 signals indicating that Bitcoin's traditional cycle has not yet reached its peak, meaning the market has not yet hit the top area.
The market trend in 2025, including the current price fluctuations, may just be a range-bound phase laying the groundwork for the next upward movement.
The maximum pain point prices for Bitcoin options in late November and December are $102,000 and $99,000, respectively, far above the current market price.
Bitcoin's price has bottomed near the ETF cost basis range (approximately $79,000 to $82,000), which aligns with the realized price of the ETF.
Additionally, $80,200 (slightly below the recent low) is considered the true market average price for Bitcoin. Multiple price indicators overlap in the range of $79,000 to $83,000, including ETF cost basis, realized price, and market average price. This price overlap is typically seen as a support area.
Further analysis of Bitcoin's realized price distribution shows that the $83,000 to $85,000 range is also a key support and resistance conversion area.
Podcast Content
Analysis of Recent BTC Plunge
The first question to answer is: Why did Bitcoin (BTC) plummet from $125,000 to $80,000?
First, some investors who believe in the four-year cycle theory sold off significantly, exacerbating the downward pressure on the market. At the same time, the prolonged government shutdown in the U.S. exceeded market expectations, further increasing macroeconomic uncertainty. Due to the government shutdown, there was financing pressure in the repurchase market, and a slight decline in the stock market also negatively impacted BTC prices.
Additionally, some smaller digital reserve companies and early Bitcoin holders sold off due to market contagion effects. To a lesser extent, some so-called BTC whales expressed dissatisfaction with the latest BTC core update and engaged in "protest selling." These factors collectively led to the atypical rapid decline in Bitcoin's price over the past six weeks, from $125,000 to $80,000.
Nevertheless, I will prove through 116 reasons and charts that the Bitcoin bull market is not over and is expected to last until 2026.
116 Reasons Supporting BTC Bull Market Continuing Until 2026
Technical Analysis and Price Structure (TA)
The recent 36% drop is not something we have never seen before. If you look at all the pullbacks in this cycle, this one is the fastest, most abrupt, and largest. However, we have seen a 32% pullback at the beginning of 2025 and a 33% pullback in mid-2024. These pullbacks are roughly comparable to the current 36% drop. Therefore, this is not an unusual occurrence relative to the situation in this cycle so far.
A 3-day bullish hammer has formed, which is typically a reversal pattern. We need to wait and see if a bottom can be established in the next two to three weeks, but this specific 3-day candlestick pattern is bullish.
We are still in a pattern of making higher lows. From a higher time frame perspective, assuming that the low of $80,005 is a local low, BTC is technically still making higher lows.
BTC has just tested a two-week demand zone, and we are essentially at a support level.
On the monthly time frame, we are in a long-term rising parallel channel. This channel began in 2023, and we are still at the diagonal support level, which is essentially a bullish structure. This is a slow and steady bull market cycle, but this structure has not yet been broken.
On a longer time frame, there is also an ascending parallel channel on a logarithmic scale, with diagonal support dating back to 2013. This structure is technically still intact, and we have just tested its lower edge.
There is also a diagonal line that acted as resistance in early 2021, late 2021, and early 2024. We broke through it at the end of 2024, tested it as support in early 2025, and now we are testing it again as support, which may just confirm another resistance-to-support transition.
Momentum and Oversold Indicators
The weekly RSI has never been this low since the FDX collapse. The only previous times the weekly RSI was this low were at the bear market bottom in 2018, the COVID bottom, and during the mid-2022 3AC/Luna crash. We are currently roughly at the level seen during COVID, but this is essentially the lowest weekly RSI since 2023. If you match these weekly RSI levels with the charts, you will find that they typically coincide with the bottoms at the end of bear markets or sharp declines like the COVID crash.
The daily RSI is at its lowest point in two and a half years, with the last time being in the summer of 2023. Statistics show that when the BTC daily RSI falls below 21, the expected returns in the future appear favorable.
**Another indicator is the distance from the **Power Law, which is currently at a "buy zone" level.
If you connect all the pullback bottoms in this cycle, you will find that this is a perfect diagonal support. Someone predicted that the bottom might be around $84,000 when it was at $95,000, and we ultimately bottomed around $80,500.
BTC's MACD on the 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day charts is at historical lows.
In the past three instances when the 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day moving average, it was a good buying opportunity in this cycle. Historically, this situation has led to positive returns over 60% of the time.
Interestingly, if you look at all past instances where Bitcoin's trading price was 3.5 standard deviations below its 200-day moving average, the only previous occurrences were during the bear market bottom in November 2018 and the COVID crash in March 2020.
If we look at the situation of being 4 standard deviations low, this has only happened once during the COVID crash. We reached similar levels on November 21, and the probability of this happening is less than 1%, indicating an extremely unusual and severe drop, suggesting that the market is very fearful.
The LeaC indicator has issued its first buy signal on the 3-day chart since the FTX collapse, which typically only occurs in bear markets or at bottoms.
The total cryptocurrency market cap is currently at the 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average).
The total cryptocurrency market cap is currently at both horizontal support and diagonal support.
On-Chain Analysis and Signs of Capitulation
Most recent sell-offs have not primarily come from long-term holders and/or miners, but rather from traders and short-term holders.
The percentage of short-term holders in profit is at its lowest level in five years, having never been this low since 2019.
The supply of short-term holders is at a historical low.
The realized profit to loss ratio of short-term holders is also at its lowest level in five years, indicating that the market is experiencing a complete capitulation, especially from the perspective of short-term holders and traders.
The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) of short-term holders is beginning to enter the buy signal zone.
Realized losses are at their highest level since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023, which is another signal of market capitulation.
The Puell multiple is at a discount level (the current miner revenue to the average over the past 365 days), which is typically associated with mid-term bottoms.
Recent on-chain data shows that we have experienced the largest outflow of funds from exchanges in history. Looking back at the last four similar events, such fund flows typically signal the start of a bull market or the end of a bear market. In the following weeks or even months, the market often sees significant bullish trends.
Additionally, the on-chain "Realized Net Profit and Loss" indicator has dropped to its lowest level since the FDX collapse, indicating that market sentiment may have bottomed out, creating conditions for a potential rebound.
The SOPR is preparing for an accumulation breakout. So far, in this cycle, it has not reached levels associated with a global top.
The SOPR remains within the structure of a bull market cycle. Since 2023, this indicator has never entered the typical bear market zone, consistently rebounding around the level of 1.
Stablecoin and Derivatives Market
The stablecoin market is in a supercycle, with its scale continuously expanding over the past three years. This trend is a bullish signal for the market, as the increase in stablecoins means that investors have more funds available to buy Bitcoin and ETH on dips.
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) is currently at its largest gap since 2022, further demonstrating the market's potential buying power.
The SSR oscillation indicator for stablecoins has reached its lowest level since 2017.
Observing Bitcoin's positions, Bitfinex BTCUSD long positions are currently in the buying range, which aligns with the state seen during multiple mid-cycle bottoms in this cycle. Whales on Bitfinex are often viewed as "smart money," and historical data shows they tend to accurately gauge market trends.
The market dominance of stablecoins is currently at a level consistent with Bitcoin's bottoms in this cycle. The market shares of USDT and USDC have surged, typically reflecting investor fear. Historical data shows that during the last three instances when USDT and USDC dominance reached this level, the market was at local mid-cycle bottoms.
In recent weeks, the market has experienced the largest long liquidation since the FTX collapse. This phenomenon is often seen as a "capitulation signal," indicating that leveraged positions in the market have been significantly cleared.
In terms of liquidation distribution, the liquidation volume on the upside (shorting) is currently significantly higher than on the downside (longing).
According to CoinGlass data, the current number of short positions exceeds long positions.
The long-short indicator reading is at 0.93, indicating that market sentiment is in a state of extreme panic.
Whale Dynamics and Institutional Behavior
Rumor has it that an "OG" whale who sold $1.2 billion in BTC over the past few weeks has finally finished selling.
There are also recent rumors that Tether sent $1 billion directly from the treasury to a Bitfinex address, possibly for purchasing BTC.
Some funds suffered significant losses on October 10. If they now have to sell Bitcoin or Ethereum, such selling is more likely to be forced rather than voluntary.
The Bgeometrics demand index is in the buying zone (the Bgeometrics demand index is an analytical tool primarily used to measure Bitcoin's demand level), with the last similar occurrence being in September 2024, when the market was also at a mid-cycle bottom.
Additionally, the on-chain indicators NVT (Network Value to Transactions) and NVTS (NVT Signal) currently show a severe oversold condition, which historically is often associated with mid-cycle bottoms.
The Bitcoin sentiment indicator "Fear and Greed Index" has currently reached a level of 10/100, which is the lowest in this cycle, indicating that the market is in a state of extreme fear.
Sentiment on social media also shows an extremely pessimistic tendency, with many KOLs sharing a large number of very bearish Bitcoin price charts on CT (Crypto Twitter).
There are also many bearish market videos on YouTube.
A large number of bearish tweets, articles, and blog posts are emerging.
Observing Bitcoin's traditional cycle top signals, currently none of the 30 signals have been triggered, indicating that the market has not yet reached the top area.
Price Patterns and ETF Flows
Last week, the CME Bitcoin futures gap at $91,000 has been successfully filled.
The CME Ethereum futures gap at $2800 has also been filled.
From a technical analysis perspective, there is a pattern known as the "Domed House and Three Peaks," which is typically seen as a corrective pattern, often followed by a new bullish wave.
There is also a viewpoint that the market trend in 2025, including the current price fluctuations, may just be a range-bound phase laying the groundwork for the next upward movement. Another pattern worth noting is the "Four Bases and Parabola," and the current market may be in the middle of the fourth base stage. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin may experience parabolic growth in the future, reaching highs of $150,000 to $200,000.
The Bitcoin to stablecoin reserve ratio on Binance is currently at a historical low, which is seen as a strong bullish signal.
Looking back at historical data, Bitcoin bottomed within four days after the U.S. government shutdown ended in 2019. This year's government shutdown ended in mid-November, and if the $80,500 on November 21 is the bottom, this bottoming time is very similar to the situation nine days after the government reopened.
In the Bitcoin options market, the buying volume of put options is dominant.
At the same time, the Put Skew indicator continues to rise, reflecting the market's extreme fear sentiment. The implied volatility of put options (Put IV) is significantly higher than that of call options (Call IV).
Notably, this week also saw record trading volume for put options on IBIT (the world's largest Bitcoin ETF).
The maximum pain point prices for Bitcoin options in late November and December are $102,000 and $99,000, respectively, far above the current market price.
The maximum pain point price for ETH options in June next year is $4,300.
November 21 was the highest trading volume day in IBIT's history, further confirming the view of market capitulation. Historical data shows that market capitulation is usually accompanied by extremely high trading volumes, which is a process of rebalancing the forces between buyers and sellers.
In fact, not only did IBIT's trading volume reach a historical peak, but if we tally the total trading volume of all BTC ETFs, this day also marks the highest in history.
Bitcoin's price has bottomed near the ETF cost basis range (approximately $79,000 to $82,000), which also aligns with the ETF's realized price.
Additionally, $80,200 (slightly below the recent low) is considered the true market average price for Bitcoin. Multiple price indicators overlap in the range of $79,000 to $83,000, including ETF cost basis, realized price, and market average price. This price overlap is typically seen as a support area.
Further analysis of Bitcoin's realized price distribution shows that the $83,000 to $85,000 range is also a key support and resistance conversion area. Therefore, the likelihood of Bitcoin finding a mid-cycle bottom in this price range is high.
November 21 was also the historical peak for Hyperliquid BTC perpetual contract trading volume. This phenomenon corresponds with the surge in ETF trading volume, indicating that the market may have gone through a mid-cycle capitulation phase. Capitulation is often accompanied by the exhaustion of selling pressure and may also signal the first rebound in market demand.
Currently, 98% of the assets under management (AUM) in ETFs are held by diamond hands, and these funds are primarily designed for long-term holding rather than short-term trading or speculation. Even with the recent 36% drop in the market, 98% of ETF AUM remains unsold, indicating that ETF holders have strong long-term confidence in Bitcoin.
The proportion of Bitcoin supply held by ETFs is continuously rising. Over the past two years, this proportion has grown from 3% to 7.1%, and it may further climb to 15%, 20%, or even 25%. This trend indicates that the Bitcoin market is experiencing what is referred to as an "IPO moment." During this phase, early large holders (OGs) gradually exit, while the passive inflow from ETFs continues to drive market accumulation. The money supply held by the fiat currency system far exceeds the amount of Bitcoin held by OGs. By definition, Bitcoin's supply is limited, while the funds available for purchasing Bitcoin from fiat and ETF systems are nearly unlimited.
The situation with Ethereum (ETH) is similar. The proportion of ETH held by ETFs has also been steadily increasing over the past few years, reflecting institutional investors' long-term optimism towards crypto assets, regardless of market price fluctuations.
Market Indicator Analysis
On November 21, the trading volume on Binance and Coinbase even exceeded the levels seen on October 10, which was already an extremely active trading day. This indicates that the market may have gone through a complete capitulation phase.
On Binance and Coinbase, Bitcoin's order book has shown a bullish tendency for the first time in weeks, at least in the short term, similar market conditions were observed when Bitcoin bottomed in April 2025.
In terms of funding rates, we see the first negative value in weeks, indicating that market sentiment is still filled with fear. A large number of investors are choosing to short, believing that prices will decline further.
Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has been trading at a discount on Coinbase, which has put continuous pressure on prices. However, since November 21, market sentiment has begun to ease, and prices are gradually normalizing. Currently, the discount on Coinbase seems to have bottomed out and is recovering to neutral levels. This could be another signal indicating that Bitcoin prices are approaching a mid-cycle bottom.
Additionally, the RSI indicator of Bitcoin compared to gold has dropped to historical lows of a bear market. Historical data shows that similar situations between Bitcoin and gold occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the global market bottom phases in 2018 and 2015, as well as during the collapses of 3AC, Luna, and FTX. If you believe that the gap between Bitcoin and gold will eventually be filled, then the current market may provide support for a bullish outlook.
From the perspective of open interest (OI) data, we have just experienced the largest scale of cleansing in this cycle, with OI dropping from $37 billion to $29 billion, marking the fastest adjustment since the FTX collapse.
In terms of the open interest (OI) of altcoins, October 10 was a large-scale washout in the altcoin market, with the bubbles of most assets having been burst.
The mNav of DAT has fallen below 1 or slightly above 1. I believe this is a bullish signal as the parts of the market that were considered bubbles have been cleaned up.
Previously extremely overvalued assets, such as MSTR's mNav, have now fallen back to levels seen during the FTX collapse. Historical data indicates that these levels are typically associated with mid-cycle bottoms in the market.
Similarly, Metaplanet's mNav once reached 23 but has now dropped to 0.95. This adjustment indicates that the market is returning to rationality. Nevertheless, Meta Planet is still borrowing funds against its Bitcoin positions to purchase more Bitcoin, showing that there is still some buying demand in the market.
Likewise, Ethereum's mNav has also undergone a significant downward adjustment, further proving that the market bubble has dissipated. Currently, an mNav below 1 does not serve as a reason to be bearish on the market. While some believe this may prompt certain DATs to sell Bitcoin or Ethereum to buy back stocks, from a game theory perspective, those DATs aiming to take a leading position in the industry are well aware that short-term trading behavior can damage their long-term reputation. They are more inclined to gain market recognition through long-term holding.
Although the Bitcoin lending industry is still in its early stages, it is gradually developing under the impetus of MSTR. I believe this trend will ultimately exhibit parabolic growth, allowing MSTR to accumulate Bitcoin in a more sustainable manner.
The social risk indicator for Bitcoin is zero, indicating that retail investors have not yet entered the market on a large scale. While some may think this is due to a lack of funds among retail investors, I believe this is precisely why Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market have not yet experienced a parabolic rise. Historically, this phenomenon is usually triggered by a large influx of retail investors into the market, which we have not seen in this cycle, indicating that the current cycle is primarily driven by DATs and institutions. I believe retail investors will return to the market on a larger scale in the future, so holding on now is a wise choice.
Macroeconomic and Political Factors
**From a macroeconomic perspective, the Federal Reserve has begun to cut interest rates, although the current *inflation rate* is still above the target level of 2%.** We need to recognize that the low volatility and slow movement of this cycle are largely due to the extremely tight current macroeconomic environment, which is one of the most challenging macro backgrounds in Bitcoin's history and a major reason for the market's difficult performance. At the start of this cycle, interest rates were at 5.5%, and they remain above 4%, indicating that the current macroeconomic conditions are still relatively tight. In past cryptocurrency cycles, interest rates typically ranged from 0% to 2.5%, with relatively loose conditions. Even in such a tight environment, Bitcoin's rise from $15,000 to $125,000 is already a significant achievement.
The probability of a rate cut in December has surged from 30% last week to 81%, which is generally good news for risk assets, including Bitcoin.
The daily trading volume of the S&P 500 index reached its highest level since April last week. Historical data shows that similar spikes in trading volume are usually associated with local or mid-cycle market bottoms. The reason to pay attention to this is that if Bitcoin prices are to rise further, ideally, the stock market also needs to maintain upward momentum.
Similarly, the daily trading volume of the Nasdaq 100 index also reached its highest level since April. Multiple meetings on November 21 discussed this time point as a potential mid-cycle market bottom, and such spikes in trading volume are also typically associated with market bottoms.
The weekly trading volume of the S&P 500 index is at its third-highest level since 2022.
The weekly trading volume of the Nasdaq 100 index is similarly at its third-highest level since 2022.
The Nasdaq 100 index has found support at the 100-day moving average and has shown a bullish crossover signal with the MACD indicator.
The trading volume of put options for the S&P 500 has reached the second-highest level in history. According to historical data, this situation will 100% lead to positive price performance one month later.
Last week, the S&P 500 index gapped up more than 1%, but closed negative on the same day. Historical data shows that this situation leads to price increases 86% of the time three weeks to a month later.
The market is currently in a unique environment. Over the past four weeks, the VIX index has been rising continuously, yet the S&P 500 index remains within 5% of its historical highs. Historical data shows that when this occurs, the probability of price increases six months later is 80%, and one year later it is as high as 93%.
The RSI indicator for SPX has fallen below 35 for the first time in seven months. Historical data shows that in similar situations, the probability of price increases three months later is 93%, six months later is 85%, and one year later is 78%.
When SPX first falls below the 50-day moving average, historical records show that the probability of price increases three months, six months, and nine months later is 71%.
For the Nasdaq, when the McClellan Oscillator falls below 62 (the McClellan Oscillator is a technical indicator used to analyze market breadth, reflecting overall market momentum by calculating the difference between the number of advancing and declining stocks and smoothing that difference), historical data shows that in most cases, prices will rise one week to one month later.
The AAI bull-bear indicator is currently below -12, and historical data shows that in the past three instances of this situation, prices increased 100% two months, three months, six months, nine months, and one year later.
On November 21, the trading volume of SPXU (3x Short S&P 500 ETF) exceeded $1 billion. Historical data shows that each time this occurs, market prices rise one month later.
Last week, the proportion of oversold stocks saw a significant increase, which is typically associated with local or mid-cycle market bottoms.
The bullish/bearish options ratio for the S&P 500 has exceeded 0.7 for two consecutive days. Historical data shows that in this case, market prices rise 100% two months later.
The price of Bitcoin is highly correlated with the growth of the global M2 money supply. Historically, Bitcoin's rapid rises in 2017 and 2021 were accompanied by parabolic growth in M2. In this cycle, Bitcoin's slow rise aligns with the moderate trend of M2 growth. If M2 growth accelerates in the future, Bitcoin prices may experience a new round of rapid increases. From a broader historical perspective, so-called "market bubbles" often last longer than people expect. Comparing the current market with the prosperity of the 1920s, the gold rush of the late 1970s, the Japanese asset price bubble, and the internet bubble, while overlaying the performance of the Nasdaq 100 index since October 2022, it can be seen that the market still has significant room for upward movement.
The S&P 500 index has never reached a global top when the ISM manufacturing index is below 50. The current ISM index is around 48, leading many to speculate that the business cycle may enter an expansion phase, further driving up the prices of stocks and risk assets like Bitcoin.
**In terms of the Mega 7 indicator, the current market performance shows that *resistance levels* are turning into support levels.** If we take Mega 7 as a barometer for the market, it currently does not show any abnormal signals. In fact, since 2015, there have been multiple instances of retesting support within four months after breaking previous highs, and the current market is experiencing a similar pattern. Therefore, the current market is not in an abnormal or bear market state, at least it still maintains a healthy operating trend.
There is a connection between Bitcoin prices and the year-on-year growth of the global M2 money supply. Historically, Bitcoin's rapid rises in 2017 and 2021 were closely related to the parabolic growth of M2. In this cycle, Bitcoin's slow rise aligns with the stable trend of M2 growth. If M2 growth accelerates in the future, Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market may experience a new round of rapid increases. There are already some signs that M2 growth is gaining momentum, but to achieve parabolic price growth, accelerating M2 growth is key.
If the money supply continues to grow, Bitcoin prices may gradually catch up with this trend and rise further.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is an important factor influencing cryptocurrency prices, and it is currently at a key resistance level, an area that has served as both resistance and support multiple times since 2015. **Between 2015 and 2020, it primarily acted as a resistance level; while from 2022 to 2024, it served multiple times as a support level. At the beginning of 2025, the dollar index broke below this area and is now retesting this resistance level from below. Generally speaking, *when the dollar index is at a resistance level, it is an ideal time to buy risk assets (such as cryptocurrencies).*
The Federal Reserve plans to end quantitative tightening (QT) in December 2025, and this policy change is considered favorable for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Although the policy will not take effect immediately, overall, quantitative easing (QE) typically helps cryptocurrency prices rise, while quantitative tightening may lead the market into a bear phase. Historical data shows that when the Fed expanded its balance sheet in 2013, the cryptocurrency market performed strongly; conversely, when it reduced its balance sheet in 2018, the cryptocurrency market experienced significant declines. The Fed's rapid expansion of its balance sheet during 2020 and 2021 coincided with the timing of the Bitcoin bull market. In 2022, as the Fed began to reduce its balance sheet, the stock and cryptocurrency markets entered a bear phase.
**Many market analysts predict that some form of *quantitative easing (QE)* or implicit QE may return in 2026, and the Fed may expand its balance sheet again.** Although the scale of this expansion may not be as large as after the pandemic, this policy is still considered to have a positive effect on the market. Looking back at history, the last time the Fed announced quantitative tightening, the market experienced what is known as the "QT-QE turning wash." At that time, Bitcoin's price initially fell but later found support around $6,000 (ignoring the pandemic-induced crash). As the pace of QT slowed and QE was initiated, Bitcoin's price subsequently experienced a surge.
There is a theory that the Fed's announcement to stop quantitative tightening may lead to a similar "QT-QE turning wash." During this period, the market may first experience a phase of volatility, and once some form of quantitative easing (QE) is initiated, Bitcoin's price may again see strong performance. This scenario may replay itself.
**From a higher political and administrative perspective, the U.S. government is currently fully supporting the development of Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, **ETFs, and stablecoins. This can be considered one of the most supportive governments for cryptocurrencies in history, and this policy environment is expected to continue, providing long-term positive support for the cryptocurrency market.
The Trump administration aimed to promote economic growth, advocating for debt reduction through economic growth, and criticized the Fed's monetary policy as being too tight. Overall, the Trump administration tended to implement more accommodative economic policies.
Additionally, the Trump administration actively supports the development of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, viewing it as a strategic national priority for the U.S. For example, the U.S. launched the Genesis mission, a plan aimed at further advancing the AI industry, whose importance and urgency can be compared to the Manhattan Project (developing nuclear weapons).
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent has hinted in multiple interviews that there may be a relaxation of bank regulations to increase lending to key industries. This could not only prepare for future interest rate cuts but also further increase the money supply. He emphasized the importance of relaxing bank regulations and lowering capital rules, similar claims have also been made by the chairman of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC).
The Trump administration is committed to lowering housing costs to release trillions of dollars in home equity into the economy and markets. This is one of the key focuses of the White House at present, aiming to convert this massive wealth into economic vitality.
The interests of the Trump family are highly aligned with this policy goal. They have significant investments in the cryptocurrency space, including Trump meme coin and decentralized finance (DeFi) projects.
The Trump administration is also discussing issuing $2,000 stimulus checks to everyone, especially low-income and middle-income individuals. Looking back at 2020, the impact of $500 or $600 checks on asset prices was evident. If this policy is implemented, the $2,000 stimulus checks would significantly benefit asset prices, particularly in the cryptocurrency market. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that this could take the form of tax refunds, but regardless of the form, it would be very favorable for the market.
**China is currently taking measures to end *deflationary* pressures that have affected its economy for years.** Historically, when China's economic pressure index reaches high levels, it is usually accompanied by some form of monetary easing policy.
Japan has announced a $135 billion economic stimulus plan, which may further boost global market liquidity and asset prices.
Conclusion and Risks
- Although there are many positive signals in the market, we also need to pay attention to potential risks. The four major risks currently facing the market include:
The Mega 7 AI bubble in the stock market may suddenly burst.
Bitcoin whales may further increase their selling pressure.
A stronger dollar may put pressure on risk assets.
The business cycle may reverse, while liquidity may further deteriorate.
I do not agree with the view that market cycles are only four years long; I believe this cycle may extend to four and a half or even five years, potentially lasting until 2026.
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