Yesterday, the cryptocurrency market experienced a dramatic shift in sentiment, primarily driven by the adjustment of expectations following the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement and the impact of macroeconomic data. Previously, the market had some expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but its "hawkish rate cut" statement far exceeded market expectations—while announcing the rate cut, the Federal Reserve emphasized that the downward trend in inflation has not yet stabilized, and future policy paths will rely more on data performance. This tightening policy tone directly triggered a panic sell-off in the market.

During the day, Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two major cryptocurrencies, broke free from the previous day's volatile pattern and entered a continuous downward mode. By the close of the Asian and European sessions, they not only completely erased all gains from Tuesday but also showed signs of accelerated decline during certain periods. It is noteworthy that there was almost no significant rebound momentum in the market during the Asian and European sessions, with both short-term bottom-fishing funds and trend-based buying remaining on the sidelines, highlighting the market sentiment of "the benefits of the rate cut have been fully realized," resulting in a generally sluggish trading atmosphere.

A turning point occurred after the release of macroeconomic data and favorable policy news in the evening. The U.S. Department of Labor reported the largest weekly increase in initial jobless claims since the pandemic, directly reflecting the weakness in the U.S. job market, contrasting with the Federal Reserve's previous assessment of economic resilience, and indirectly reinforcing market expectations for further rate cuts. Meanwhile, the news of the reappointment of a Federal Reserve regional president in the early morning alleviated market concerns about potential policy shifts due to changes in the decision-making body. With these dual favorable factors, market sentiment gradually warmed, and Bitcoin and Ethereum began to rebound during the U.S. trading session.

From a specific point of view, Bitcoin fell to a key support level of 89,200 yesterday before stopping its decline and rebounding. After a continuous rebound overnight, it had already returned above 92,000 in the morning, recovering some lost ground. Ethereum, after testing support around 3,150, also initiated a rebound, similarly rising above 3,200 in the morning. Both cryptocurrencies demonstrated a certain effectiveness of support.

Technical analysis shows that after Bitcoin's rise and fall yesterday, it completed a short-term indicator correction. Currently, during the rebound process, the four-hour MACD indicator's green bars are continuously shrinking, indicating that bearish momentum is waning, reinforcing the rebound repair logic. However, the hourly RSI indicator has entered the overbought zone, and short-term upward pressure is gradually becoming apparent. In conjunction with the Bollinger Bands, the current four-hour Bollinger Bands are flattening, indicating that the market is still in a volatile pattern in the short term, and the strength and space of the rebound may be limited. It is expected that today's daytime session will continue the rebound repair trend, but the overall volatility will be limited, and attention should be paid to the oscillation and consolidation rhythm after the rebound.

In the short term, Bitcoin needs to pay attention to the pressure at the 93,000 integer level. If it can break through, it is expected to further test the key resistance level of 94,000. The support below focuses on the two key points of 91,000 and 90,000, with the effectiveness of the 90,000 support level directly affecting the short-term trend direction. For Ethereum, the short-term resistance levels are at 3,270 and 3,350, with strong resistance likely forming near 3,350. The support below has moved up to 3,150 and 3,100, with 3,150 being the starting point of yesterday's rebound, making its support strength noteworthy.

It is worth noting that several Federal Reserve executives will give public speeches this evening. As the first collective voice after the rate cut, their statements will directly impact the market's expectations for future policy paths and may trigger market volatility, which requires close attention.

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