On one side, there are "god-level" swing traders making a staggering $24 million in a single month with a win rate exceeding 94%, while on the other side, there are "tragic" bulls struggling with unrealized losses of tens of millions of dollars, teetering on the edge of forced liquidation—this is the true picture of the current battlefield of cryptocurrency derivatives where whales operate.
Recently, an address named “pension-usdt.eth” has caused a stir on the on-chain data platform. This address has achieved over $24 million in profit in the past month, with a trading win rate as high as 94.1% since December.
At the same time, another whale address on the Hyperliquid platform, “0xb317..ae,” is suffering from nearly $39.18 million in unrealized losses due to a 5x leveraged long position in Ethereum (ETH).
1. The Short-Term Art of the Pension Whale
● In the crypto world, “pension-usdt.eth” is humorously referred to as the "pension whale" due to its name. It is not a traditional whale that holds assets long-term but an extremely active high-frequency swing trader.
● Its trading strategy is clear and sharp: it focuses almost exclusively on the two major assets, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), using relatively low leverage of 2 to 3 times for ultra-short-term operations.
● Data reveals the astonishing efficiency of this address: its average holding period is only about 20 hours. This means it typically completes a full cycle of opening and closing positions within a day, precisely capturing market fluctuations.
The recent impressive operations of this address began in December. As of December 20, it had completed 17 trades in December, with 16 ending in profit.
● One typical victory occurred on December 16, when the address opened a new long position in BTC worth approximately $85.76 million with 3x leverage, becoming one of the largest BTC long positions on the Hyperliquid platform.
● However, even top traders cannot avoid mistakes. After taking profits on the BTC long position on December 17, it reversed and opened a short position in ETH. This trade ultimately ended with a loss of about $2.09 million, breaking its streak of 13 consecutive winning trades.
● But what truly reflects its professionalism is the speed of its response to mistakes. After closing the ETH short position, it quickly pivoted and simultaneously established long positions in BTC and ETH with 3x leverage, not only recovering some losses but also continuing to expand its gains in subsequent market movements.
2. The Whale Battleground on Hyperliquid
● “pension-usdt.eth” is not an isolated case; the Hyperliquid platform is currently one of the main battlegrounds for whale long and short battles. As of December 19, the total position size of whales on this platform reached $5.203 billion.
● A silent yet intense showdown is taking place here. The long positions of whales amount to $2.523 billion, while short positions are slightly higher at $2.68 billion, with a long-to-short ratio of 0.94.
● The profit and loss situation vividly reflects the brutality of this confrontation: the overall unrealized loss of whale long positions is $251 million, while short positions show an overall unrealized profit of $350 million. This data profoundly reveals the immense pressure the recent market correction has placed on the bullish camp.
● The situation of whale “0xb317..ae” is an extreme manifestation of this pressure. This address went long on ETH with 5x leverage when the price was $3,147.39, and now its paper loss is nearing $40 million. This trade has become a typical case for observing market sentiment and risk control.
● The subtle balance of long and short forces is reflected not only in position sizes but also in capital flows. On December 17, a whale withdrew 775 BTC and 5,767 ETH from Binance, with a total value exceeding $84 million.
This large asset transfer from the exchange to a private wallet is often interpreted by the market as a signal that selling pressure may ease, as it indicates that these assets are unlikely to be easily sold on the exchange in the short term.
3. Exchange Withdrawals and Major Asset Rotations
● On-chain data acts like a mirror, reflecting the complex strategic layouts of whales. In addition to the long and short battles in the derivatives market, the large capital flows in the spot market are also worth noting. The massive withdrawal on December 17 is just the tip of the iceberg. Such behavior often indicates that whales may be adjusting their long-term asset allocations or preparing to participate in decentralized finance (DeFi) activities.
A more significant asset rotation is quietly occurring. A whale address that had been dormant for seven years recently began to adjust its positions on a large scale, shifting its holdings from Bitcoin to Ethereum.
● This address previously held 10,606 BTC for seven years, realizing a profit of $1.12 billion. Recently, it sold 3,100 BTC, worth about $348 million, while purchasing 50,522 ETH in spot and opening high-leverage long positions in ETH. This series of operations has brought the total long exposure of this address in ETH to about $784 million, demonstrating its strong confidence in Ethereum's future performance relative to Bitcoin.
● Asset rotation is not only happening between mainstream coins but also extends to platform tokens. On September 25, a whale deposited 6 million USDC into Hyperliquid and made a large purchase of the platform's native token HYPE, currently showing an unrealized profit of $7.16 million.
4. The Truth and Misconceptions Behind Whale Behavior
The actions of whales stir the nerves of the market, but their true intentions are often more complex than they appear. A recent analysis by Cointelegraph points out that the behavior patterns of whales have changed significantly in 2025.
A key turning point is considered to be October 10, 2025, a day that many market participants view as the "unofficial end date" of the recent crypto bull market. On that day, when retail holdings were largely liquidated, an early Bitcoin whale successfully profited about $200 million.
Analysis indicates that early this year, "veteran" whales significantly reduced their holdings, while institutional investors absorbed these sell-off chips. This new and old capital transition is reshaping the market structure of Bitcoin.
However, retail traders often misinterpret the signals of whale activities. Many investors blindly follow the large trades of whales, overlooking the complex strategies and special circumstances behind these trades.
For example, some whale trades may be part of complex hedging strategies or aimed at meeting institutional liquidity needs, rather than simple directional bets. In 2025, as mainstream quantitative trading firms like Renaissance Technologies and Two Sigma deploy complex crypto algorithm strategies, the market structure has become even more intricate.
Professional research reports indicate that the increase in position concentration is highly correlated with the decline in market liquidity and increased price volatility. When whales establish high-leverage positions in mainstream assets like Ethereum, it may trigger a chain liquidation, exacerbating market fragility.
5. The Survival Strategy Under the Shadow of Whales
In a market dominated by whales, ordinary investors need rational strategies rather than blind following. On-chain data should be one of the reference factors for decision-making, not the sole basis. For investors looking to find signals from whale activities, it is essential to focus on more sustainable trends rather than single trades.
● Understanding the limitations of whale behavior is crucial. First, data is lagging; when retail traders see public whale trading information, the whales may have already begun to operate in the opposite direction.
● Secondly, the scale of whale funds and their risk tolerance are entirely different from those of retail traders. They can withstand significant short-term volatility and even profit from it, which is often something retail traders cannot do.
● The high win-rate trading of “pension-usdt.eth” provides a valuable observation window, but directly mimicking its operations carries high risks. Although this address uses relatively low leverage of 2-3 times, its trading frequency and precise timing are difficult for ordinary investors to replicate.
When the “pension-usdt.eth” address's 30,000 ETH long position shines on the Hyperliquid leaderboard, another whale on the same platform suffers nearly $40 million in unrealized losses due to a 5x leveraged long position in ETH.
These numbers record the cruelty and opportunities of the crypto market. Bitcoin whales withdrawing tens of millions of dollars in assets from exchanges, and a seven-year dormant address suddenly starting to exchange Bitcoin for Ethereum—these on-chain traces intertwine to form a complex expectation of the future market from institutions and large holders.
In this long and short game dominated by whales, the best strategy for ordinary investors may be: to keep observing, think independently, and treat on-chain signals as part of the puzzle rather than the only map to wealth.
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