What to know : VanEck data shows that in the past 30 days bitcoin’s hashrate dropped by the most since April 2024 Hashrate declines are historically aligned with miner capitulation and markets closer to local bottoms than tops. According to VanEck, periods of negative 90-day hashrate growth have delivered positive 180-day bitcoin returns 77% of the time.
Declining bitcoin mining activity is often interpreted as a sign of network stress, reflecting weaker miner profitability, declining hashrate and concerns over the economic sustainability of mining operations. It is commonly assumed to be bad for the bitcoin price.
Digital assets investment firm VanEck, however, argues that periods of falling hashrate — the total computational power being used by miners to secure the bitcoin network and process transactions — has historically functioned as a contrarian indicator, indicating improving price momentum rather than a signal of structural weakness.
This dynamic is emerging as bitcoin trades around $87,000, following a 36% peak-to-trough slide from the October's all-time high.
Over the past 30 days, bitcoin's network hashrate recorded its steepest decline since April 2024, as miners faced compressed margins from a weaker BTC price and that month's "halving," an event that cuts block rewards by 50% roughly every four years, reducing new bitcoin issuance.
VanEck notes that the shrinking hashrate when bitcoin prices fall reflects miner capitulation, with inefficient or highly leveraged operators shutting down or selling bitcoin, which contributes to sell-side spot pressure.
In reality, hashrate declines tend to lag behind the price drops. According to VanEck, the timing has historically placed the market closer to cyclical bottoms than tops. As higher-cost miners exit, lower difficulty adjustments occur, making it easier to mine bitcoin and ensuring blocks are produced at a consistent pace. The resulting improved miner profitability then eases forced selling.
The current price correction appears selective, VanEck noted, with shutdowns concentrated among higher cost or geopolitcially exposed operations.
VanEck found that when the 90-day hashrate growth has been negative, bitcoin has delivered positive 180-day forward returns 77% of the time, meaning the price performance over the following six months is high than average than during periods of rising hashrate.
The firm estimated that buying bitcoin during sustained hashrate corrections has improved 180-day forward returns by roughly 2,400 basis points, reinforcing miner capitulation as one of bitcoin more durable contrarian signals.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
