Events and Conclusions

Recently, Morgan Stanley's strategy team suggested that the U.S. may be entering a "jobless productivity boom," where non-farm labor productivity significantly increases even as employment expansion slows or stagnates. According to data from the U.S. Department of Labor, non-farm business worker output per hour grew by 3.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, a notable jump from the previous value of 1.8%, which serves as a key support for this judgment. Morgan Stanley believes that this productivity rebound is likely to suppress inflationary pressures, and combined with the current moderate employment data, provides room for the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates. The chain logic is: rising productivity → reduced unit labor cost pressure → declining inflation path → lower nominal interest rate center → monetary policy shifts from tight to loose. Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tool shows that investors are betting on a roughly 72% probability of significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2026, far exceeding the baseline scenario where officials only predict one rate cut, rapidly widening the divergence between the market and official views on the rate cut path. This article will explore this macro narrative: if the "jobless productivity boom" materializes and strengthens the pace of rate cuts, it will reshape the global liquidity environment and the risk-free interest rate anchor, thereby providing new pricing coordinates and risk premium repricing opportunities for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

Macro Data Context

From a data perspective, the year-on-year output per hour for non-farm business workers jumped from 1.8% to 3.3%, indicating that despite relatively limited new employment and even marginally weak labor demand, overall output in the U.S. is still maintaining a high growth rate, with individual worker productivity rapidly improving, providing direct evidence for the "productivity boom." At the same time, the market's description of current inflation and employment is mostly "moderate" and "controllable": inflation remains above the 2% target but has shown converging month-on-month fluctuations, and job growth is slowing rather than experiencing a cliff-like drop, which is typically seen as a stronger version of a soft landing scenario. CME FedWatch data shows that investors believe there is about a 72% probability of significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2026, while the Fed officials' dot plot only reflects a baseline expectation of one rate cut, indicating a clear divergence in views on the terminal nominal interest rate and its path. In the "jobless productivity boom" scenario, sustained productivity improvements will weaken the wage-price spiral, lower medium- to long-term inflation risk premiums, and thus exert downward pressure on the nominal interest rate center. For asset markets, this not only suggests that real interest rates are likely to decline but may also reconstruct the discount rate framework for risk assets, leading to a higher tolerance for high-volatility, high-risk assets.

Bullish and Bearish Perspectives

In terms of viewpoints, Morgan Stanley strategists emphasize that U.S. inflation trends are increasingly determined by productivity and labor market structure. If the "jobless productivity boom" continues, it will create conditions for a more accommodative monetary environment. Chris Iggo from AXA Investment also pointed out that signs of weakness are emerging in the labor market, and in an environment where inflation remains above target but is marginally declining, the reasons for the Federal Reserve to further cut rates are accumulating. Economist Julia Cartwright believes that the current rate cut path aligns with previous expectations of a soft landing, with the moderate combination of employment and inflation data supporting a smooth transition of the economy from high interest rates to a neutral range. Driven by this, market sentiment has recently shifted noticeably towards optimism and FOMO, with the mainstream logic still being "rate cuts are beneficial for risk assets": a decline in risk-free rates will elevate the valuation of future cash flows and forward narratives, driving a resurgence in risk appetite for stocks, tech growth, and cryptocurrencies. However, the pricing of a 72% probability of rate cuts in 2026 by investors far exceeds the officials' expectation of only one rate cut, and if this expectation gap is corrected in the face of unfavorable inflation or employment data, it could trigger concentrated liquidations and increased volatility. At the same time, the "jobless boom" is seen by many observers as a reflection of the productivity surge driven by AI, accompanied by job displacement and increasing inequality. If rising unemployment or worsening income distribution leads to political pressure, the Federal Reserve will also face social scrutiny when implementing overly accommodative policies, increasing uncertainty around the rate cut path.

Cryptocurrency Transmission Chain

Extending the perspective to asset allocation, declining interest rates and a weak dollar are important starting points for institutions bullish on Bitcoin and gold. Traditional theory suggests that when real interest rates decline and fiat asset returns worsen, relatively inelastic scarce assets—such as gold and Bitcoin, which is often referred to as "digital gold"—will receive higher valuation premiums. Morgan Stanley has previously emphasized in reports that in an environment of a weak dollar and persistent inflation expectations, it raised its mid-term target price for gold to about $4,800 per ounce. This framework has also been extended by many institutions to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin: by comparing scarcity, marginal issuance speed, and global availability, they are priced analogously. Expectations of rate cuts and marginal improvements in the liquidity environment will transmit to the crypto market through two main channels: first, lower funding costs will reduce financing expenses for leveraged long positions and structured products, enhancing the capital efficiency of allocating crypto assets; second, a resurgence in risk appetite will lead portfolios to seek high-beta assets beyond stocks and bonds to enhance overall returns, driving new funds into the spot and derivatives markets. However, if the current optimistic expectations for the pace of rate cuts are contradicted by data, leading to a re-elevation of the nominal interest rate path, the prior gains in cryptocurrencies driven by expectations will face pressure to retrace, with both price and volatility potentially increasing in both directions: on one hand, there is valuation downgrading, and on the other, a strong liquidation chain reaction under high leverage structures, with the combination potentially amplifying short-term risks.

Institutionalization and Gold Anchor

Over the past year, Wall Street has accelerated its entry into the crypto market through Bitcoin-related structured products, custody, and trading services. Institutions like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have launched notes linked to Bitcoin ETFs and provided crypto trading access for high-net-worth clients, while platforms like E*Trade have opened crypto trading features, gradually incorporating Bitcoin into mainstream asset allocation systems. During the same period, stablecoin issuers have continued to increase their gold reserves, and central bank demand for gold remains high, enhancing the correlation between gold prices and crypto market cycles. More and more institutions view Bitcoin and gold as part of the same "hedge asset cluster" against a weak dollar and inflation. On the institutional level, firms like K33 Research predict that Bitcoin is likely to outperform stocks and gold by 2026, partly based on expectations of "regulatory victories" in the U.S., including the advancement of crypto market structure legislation and the gradual clarification of regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, which provide a compliance and risk control framework for traditional capital to increase their positions. In terms of capital and technology, compliant crypto infrastructure companies like Zerohash have received backing from traditional financial capital, including Morgan Stanley, while some miners are transitioning to AI computing power and data centers, such as TeraWulf receiving financing support from Google, reflecting the intertwining of crypto mining, power infrastructure, and AI computing demand. In this process, Bitcoin is not only seen as "digital gold," but its underlying infrastructure is also intersecting with traditional finance and the AI industry chain, providing additional support for its pricing narrative in the new round of productivity and liquidity cycles.

Funding and Sentiment Portrait

From the current observed information, discussions about the "jobless productivity boom" and aggressive rate cut paths are more reflected in expectations rather than being fully realized in on-chain or off-chain capital flows. The lack of direct, significant net inflow data indicates that the market is currently in a phase characterized by "expectations leading, capital lagging." Looking back at previous macro easing cycles, whether in the zero-interest environment post-pandemic or earlier quantitative easing phases, it is often the case that signals of macro policy shifts quickly boost valuations and sentiment, followed by slow capital from pensions, family offices, and institutional wealth management gradually catching up through products and allocations. Therefore, under conditions where the future path of the Federal Reserve remains unclear and the divergence between market and official expectations widens, there is a high likelihood of a rapid switch from FOMO to "expectation trample" between funding and sentiment: once inflation or employment data does not support the aggressive rate cut narrative, the market may quickly shift from "buying expectations" to "selling facts." For short-term traders, this environment means a need to pay closer attention to macro data and policy communications with higher frequency, strengthening position management and risk hedging; for medium- to long-term allocation funds, the focus is more on the central levels of nominal interest rates and regulatory environments, with a higher tolerance for short-term volatility, often gradually accumulating exposure through dollar-cost averaging and portfolio rebalancing rather than chasing local emotional peaks.

Scenarios and Strategies

Combining the current market and official statements, three macro scenarios can be constructed to think about strategic paths: first, if significant rate cuts occur as per market expectations, with inflation stabilizing and the "jobless productivity boom" continuing, the Federal Reserve may be forced to lower policy rates more quickly and deeply, which could significantly elevate the valuation center for Bitcoin and mainstream crypto assets, with institutional capital flowing in through ETFs, structured products, and off-market agreements accelerating, and volatility primarily exhibiting "positive amplification" in an upward market; second, if officials only implement small rate cuts, maintaining rates in a relatively neutral to high range, although a slight decline in risk-free rates provides some support for valuations, the contraction of risk premiums will be limited, and crypto assets are likely to exhibit structural trends—leading assets and thematic sectors (such as those related to AI and infrastructure) gaining relative returns, while overall market capitalization does not experience wild expansion; third, if inflation or financial stability comes under pressure again, leading the Federal Reserve to unexpectedly adopt a hawkish stance, or even suggest that rates will remain high for longer, the market will need to pay the price for a reversal in expectations and repricing, with institutional inflows slowing or even experiencing temporary net outflows, and Bitcoin and mainstream coins facing deeper adjustments amid high volatility and tight liquidity. In an environment where the risks of misalignment between expectations and realizations are significant, a more reasonable operational approach is to build positions in phases, trading time for space: on one hand, closely monitor the combination inflection points of productivity, inflation, and employment, and on the other hand, pay attention to regulatory progress and institutional entry rhythms as medium- to long-term signals, rather than making a one-time bet on a single macro path. If this "jobless productivity boom" ultimately solidifies and suppresses inflation and the nominal interest rate center over a longer cycle, then crypto assets, especially Bitcoin, are likely to evolve from a marginal "tactical play asset" in global asset allocation to a long-term "structural allocation factor" alongside gold and high-quality tech stocks, with its proportion in institutional balance sheets and sovereign reserves potentially being reassessed.

Join our community to discuss and grow stronger together!
Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh

OKX Benefits Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=l61eM4owQ
Binance Benefits Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=ynr7d1P6Z

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。