Event Overview

Recently, Bitcoin has encountered an unprecedented options expiration window, with approximately 300,000 BTC options settling at 16:00 UTC+8, corresponding to a nominal value roughly between $23 billion and $23.7 billion. Different data sources provide slightly varying figures, with some reporting around $23.4 billion, while KOLs and data analysts cite $23.6 billion, $23.58 billion, or even $23 billion, but all point to a common fact: this is the largest single-day options expiration in Bitcoin's history. Beyond BTC, Ethereum options also had about $3.8 billion in nominal value expiring on the same day, bringing the total for BTC+ETH options to approximately $28.5 billion, nearly doubling compared to the same period last year, highlighting the significant rise in the weight of derivatives within the overall market structure. The market's debate surrounding this expiration focuses on two levels: one is the statistical discrepancies in nominal amounts, and the other is the maximum pain point range, with some opinions pointing to the $95,000 to $96,000 area, while others emphasize the tug-of-war around $100,000 and $84,000. This article will discuss how this "largest settlement day in history" reshapes short-term volatility and the dynamics of long and short positions.

Positions and Pain Points

From the data disclosure, the nominal scale of this BTC options expiration fluctuates between $23 billion and $23.7 billion. Media reports mention "over $23 billion" and "approximately $23.4 billion," while various figures such as $23.6 billion, $23.7 billion, and $23 billion appear on social platforms. Industry analysis attributes this mainly to differences in statistical timing, the range of exchanges included, and the conversion price benchmarks, rather than substantive disagreements. More structurally significant is the current long and short exposure: open interest data shows that the call/put ratio for Bitcoin options is about 0.36, with call options holding a clear advantage overall, and longs more concentrated in the further months and high strike price areas. Specifically, in terms of strike price distribution, the open interest for call options is heavily concentrated in the $100,000 to $120,000 range, while put options are densely distributed around $85,000, forming two distinct "peaks" of chips. Multiple data sources indicate that the maximum pain point roughly lies around $95,000 to $96,000, but some KOLs lock the key battleground range between $100,000 and $84,000. Such distribution suggests that within the $95,000 to $100,000 range, prices may be suppressed by a "magnetic" effect, keeping them relatively balanced in terms of profit and loss, while a drop below the $85,000-$84,000 support zone could trigger more intense protective selling and hedging demand.

Capital and Sentiment

From the perspective of public sentiment and emotions, the current market is generally bearish but has not fallen into panic; instead, it presents a subtle state of "high alert, low noise." Some KOLs have mentioned that retail group chats are "eerily quiet," contrasting sharply with the intense discussions during usual hot periods; meanwhile, due to the Western Christmas holiday, major traditional financial markets like US stocks are closed, and Wall Street funds are largely in vacation mode, which objectively compresses immediate liquidity and depth in the market, amplifying the marginal impact of large single transactions on prices. In terms of on-chain and sentiment indicators, observers have noted that among about 32 tracked indicators, the number of bearish signals exceeds bullish ones, with overall sentiment still leaning towards caution or even pessimism. However, some key indicators like VDD have entered historical "bottom-fishing zones," showing a short-term bullish divergence with price and capital increment gradients, suggesting that downward momentum is marginally weakening. Institutions often complete position adjustments and risk hedging ahead of current calendar nodes, balancing exposure more through options and volatility tools, while retail investors tend to wait or test with light positions during the holiday and news vacuum period. In the face of such a large options expiration, institutions tend to dynamically hedge between derivatives and spot to reduce directional risk, while retail investors passively endure volatility, with emotional divergence becoming increasingly apparent in the absence of unified expectations.

Market Making and Volatility

In the options market, the hedging behavior of market makers often creates a visible "invisible hand" effect on prices around expiration. As a large number of options approach expiration, market makers will dynamically adjust their spot and contract positions based on changes in the underlying price to hedge the accumulated risk exposure from selling options: when the price nears the key strike price of concentrated positions, market makers may be forced to increase buying or selling pressure to maintain delta neutrality, thereby creating a support or resistance zone in the short term, referred to as the "options wall" by the market. Analyst Murphy points out that with the expiration of approximately $23 billion in Bitcoin options, once settlement is completed, market makers will gradually unload their previously configured hedging positions, and the existing support and resistance artificially constructed by the options structure may phase out. Before a new capital and position structure is reestablished, the actual volatility of BTC is likely to rise in the short term. Looking back at past events with expiration levels in the tens of billions, short-term volatility has often been pushed above 45%; given the current low liquidity during the holiday and limited order book depth, the passive liquidation of leveraged funds is more likely to coincide with liquidity vacuums, triggering "spike" style instantaneous severe volatility and amplifying the risks of margin calls and liquidation.

Historical Comparison

Since September 2025, Bitcoin has experienced multiple concentrated expirations of options at the tens of billions level, providing a comparative sample for this event. According to market statistics, the nominal scale of September options expiration was about $4.3 billion, which climbed to $14 billion in November, while this December's approximately $23.7 billion continues to set records, indicating a stepwise expansion from billions to over $20 billion, demonstrating the rapidly increasing influence of derivatives within the entire crypto trading ecosystem. Reviewing the price performance over the past few months, whenever approaching a large-scale expiration window, prices typically oscillate near key strike prices, with the $85,000 to $100,000 range repeatedly becoming a "corridor" for prices, serving as both a significant support/resistance area on a technical level and a zone of dense options accumulation. Within this range, price increases trigger a sharp rise in the value of some call options, forcing market-making and hedging funds to buy spot or perpetual contracts, creating positive feedback; conversely, once falling below the $85,000 area, put options benefit, and protective selling pressure increases, further amplifying downward inertia. On the other hand, the implied volatility skew exhibited by institutions when pricing options often ranges between -5% and -10.6%, indicating their heightened sensitivity to downside risks, but there is significant divergence regarding long-term price targets: from conservative expectations of $50,000 to aggressive views of $250,000, suggesting that in this round of large-scale expiration, there has not been a unified directional "institutional stance," but rather a misaligned battle between longs and shorts across different time dimensions and price ranges.

Future Market Path

Regarding the price path after the options expiration, the market currently tends to discuss potential trends in conditional scenarios rather than a single directional "inevitable evolution." One scenario that has garnered attention is: if BTC shows a pullback to the $80,000 to $82,000 range before and after settlement, based on some analysts' technical observations and the distribution of defensive option positions, this area may overlap with the on-chain VDD "bottom-fishing zone" and short-term bullish divergence signals, thus providing a window of opportunity for a phase rebound. However, this rebound is more viewed as a correction to the previous excessive decline, unlikely to evolve into a smooth unilateral upward attack in the absence of new capital inflows and macro support. Another scenario is that prices oscillate narrowly around the maximum pain point near $95,000 to $100,000 to complete settlement, which would bring many further out-of-the-money call and put options close to zero, maximizing net gains for market makers and large funds, while the actual profits and losses for directional longs and shorts converge. In such an outcome, subsequent position adjustments may manifest as a new round of options layout with longer durations and further strike prices, as the market continues to seek a new equilibrium between the expansion of derivatives and a high-volatility environment. For ordinary investors, during such a large-scale options expiration window, it is crucial to pay attention to several core signals: first, whether the price quickly deviates from the relative position of key strike prices/pain points; second, whether changes in trading volume and order book depth indicate a liquidity vacuum; third, whether the liquidation data of leveraged funds and volatility suddenly amplify. Reasonably reducing leverage, controlling single-direction exposure, and avoiding chasing highs and lows during the worst liquidity periods may be more important than attempting to "catch every fluctuation."

Join our community to discuss and grow stronger together!
Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh

OKX Benefits Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=l61eM4owQ
Binance Benefits Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=ynr7d1P6Z

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。