Written by: Cathy
At the end of 2025, top global financial institutions rarely issued a highly consistent voice.
From a16z, Coinbase, Messari to Grayscale, Galaxy Digital, from BlackRock, Fidelity to J.P. Morgan and Standard Chartered Bank, over 30 institutions pointed to the same judgment in their respective 2026 outlook reports: the crypto asset industry is undergoing a historic transition from "adolescent restlessness" to "adult stability."
If the cycle of 2021-2022 was driven by retail speculation, high leverage, and narrative bubbles, institutions generally believe that 2026 will be a year of substantial growth built on regulatory clarity, macro hedging demand, and the realization of technological utility. This phase has a professional name — "industrialization phase."
However, beneath the consensus lies divergence. There is fierce competition among top institutions regarding whether Bitcoin's volatility will be lower than Nvidia's, whether the threat of quantum computing is imminent, and who will win the war for the AI payment layer.
So, what will happen in 2026? Where will the money flow? How should ordinary investors respond?
01 Goodbye to the Halving Myth, ETFs Reshape the Rules of the Game
For a long time, the pulse of the crypto market has been beating in rhythm with Bitcoin's halving every four years. But in the outlook for 2026, a disruptive view is forming: the traditional four-year cycle theory may have become obsolete.
Grayscale, in its "2026 Digital Asset Outlook: The Dawn of the Institutional Era" report, proposed a provocative viewpoint: 2026 will officially mark the end of the so-called "four-year cycle" theory. With the popularization of spot ETFs and the improvement of compliance frameworks, the structure of market participants has fundamentally changed. The extreme boom and bust cycles previously dominated by retail sentiment and halving narratives are being replaced by systematic capital flows from institutional investors based on asset allocation models.
This sustained, non-emotional influx of capital will smooth out extreme market volatility, making the performance of crypto assets more akin to that of mature macro assets.
Coinbase offered an excellent historical analogy: the current market environment resembles "1996" rather than "1999." 1996 was the early stage when internet technology began to truly penetrate business and enhance productivity, not the eve of a bubble burst. Institutional capital is no longer mercenary short-term arbitrage but is entering the market as a long-term allocation to hedge against fiscal deficits and currency devaluation.
Interestingly, Galaxy Digital's research director Alex Thorn bluntly stated that 2026 could be a "boring year" for Bitcoin. While Bitcoin may still reach historical highs, its price behavior will resemble that of mature macro assets like gold.
This "boring" nature is actually a sign of asset maturity, indicating reduced downside risk and broader institutional acceptance. Bitwise also listed "Bitcoin's volatility will be lower than Nvidia's" as one of its top ten predictions for 2026.
Investors trying to use historical halving data to guide their strategies may face ineffective models in 2026.
02 Stablecoins and RWA, Certainty Opportunities in 2026
If the macro narrative lays the foundation for capital inflows, then the upgrade of financial infrastructure determines the direction of that capital. 2026 is seen by major institutions as the year when stablecoins and RWA (real-world assets) transition from concept validation to large-scale commercial use.
Explosive Growth of Stablecoins
a16z crypto defined stablecoins in its "2026 Major Trends" as the future "base settlement layer of the internet." They believe that stablecoins will completely surpass their role as mere intermediaries for trading pairs, directly embedding into local payment networks and merchant tools through QR codes, global wallets, and card integrations.
The data is staggering: by 2025, the trading volume of stablecoins has reached $9 trillion, rivaling Visa and PayPal.
Coinbase's prediction is even more aggressive. They estimate, through random modeling, that by the end of 2028, the total market capitalization of stablecoins could reach $1.2 trillion, with 2026 being the steepest phase of this growth curve. Coinbase particularly emphasizes new use cases for stablecoins in cross-border transaction settlements, remittances, and payroll payment platforms.
The Block introduced the concept of "Stablechains" in its "2026 Digital Asset Outlook Report." To meet the extreme demands of commercial payments for high throughput and low latency, the market will see the emergence of dedicated blockchain networks optimized for the execution and settlement of stablecoins.
Galaxy Digital predicts market consolidation. Although traditional banking giants like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup are exploring issuing their own stablecoins, the stablecoin market in 2026 will consolidate into one or two dominant giants due to distribution channels and liquidity network effects. Additionally, Galaxy boldly predicts that the trading volume of stablecoins will officially surpass that of the traditional ACH (Automated Clearing House) system in the U.S.
A Thousandfold Growth of RWA
Grayscale predicts that, driven by regulation and institutions, the scale of tokenized assets will see a 1000X growth by 2030.
Coinbase introduced the concept of "Tokenization 2.0," focusing on "atomic-level composability." In 2026, merely tokenizing government bonds will not be enough; the real value lies in these tokenized government bonds being able to instantly serve as collateral for liquidity in DeFi protocols, with their lending value far exceeding traditional financial margin frameworks.
Jay Yu, a junior partner at Pantera Capital, predicts that tokenized gold will rise in 2026, becoming the dominant asset in the RWA space. As concerns about structural issues with the dollar grow, on-chain gold, as an asset with both physical properties and digital liquidity, will experience explosive growth.
03 When AI Agents Learn to Spend Money
In 2026, the combination of artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain will no longer be limited to the hype of "AI concept coins," but will enter a deep stage of infrastructure interoperability. Institutions unanimously believe that blockchain will become the financial track for AI agents.
a16z crypto views the "agent economy" as a core idea for 2026. They pose a central question: when AI agents begin to trade autonomously, place orders, and invoke on-chain services, how do they prove "who they are"? To this end, a16z proposed a new compliance standard called "Know Your Agent" (KYA). This could become a prerequisite for AI agents to interact with blockchain, similar to human KYC.
Pantera Capital made a more concrete prediction. They believe that business intelligence agents based on the x402 protocol will rise. x402 is seen as a new payment standard or endpoint that allows AI agents to conduct micropayments and regular payments.
In this field, Pantera is particularly optimistic about Solana, believing it will surpass the Base chain in "penny-level" transaction volume, becoming the preferred settlement layer for AI agents.
Messari also listed "Crypto x AI" as one of the seven core sectors in its "2026 Crypto Thesis." They described a future of "Agentic Commerce," where decentralized infrastructure will support the training and execution of AI models, representing a market that could reach $30 trillion by 2030.
Grayscale emphasized the role of blockchain as an "antidote" to the centralization risks of AI. As AI models become increasingly powerful and controlled by a few giants, the demand for decentralized computing, decentralized data verification, and proof of content authenticity will surge.
a16z proposed the concept of "Staked Media." In the face of the proliferation of AI-generated false content, future content publishers (whether human or AI) may need to stake capital to endorse their viewpoints. If the content is proven to be false or malicious, the staked capital will be forfeited.
04 Undercurrents Beneath the Consensus
Despite the strong consensus, there are sharp divergences among institutions on certain key issues, which often serve as sources of excess returns or risks.
Divergence One: Explosion vs. Calm
Standard Chartered Bank maintains an aggressive bullish logic based on supply and demand tightening. Standard Chartered's 2026 BTC target price is $150,000 (down from the previous $300,000), with a 2027 target of $225,000.
However, Galaxy Digital and Bitwise paint a starkly different future: a market characterized by compressed volatility, stable trends, or even "boring" conditions. Galaxy predicts that BTC prices may fluctuate widely between $50,000 and $250,000. If Galaxy is correct, trading strategies accustomed to profiting from high volatility will become completely ineffective in 2026, and the market will shift to obtaining returns through DeFi yields and arbitrage.
Divergence Two: The Ghost of Quantum Computing
Pantera Capital proposed a potentially disruptive narrative — "quantum panic." While it may still take years for quantum computers to crack Bitcoin private keys, Pantera believes that by 2026, the scientific community may achieve breakthroughs in error-correcting quantum bits, sufficient to trigger panic selling in the market and force the Bitcoin community to urgently discuss anti-quantum forks.
In contrast, Coinbase holds a completely opposite view, believing this will merely be noise in 2026 and will not affect valuations.
Divergence Three: The Battle for the AI Payment Layer
In the competition for the AI agent payment layer, Pantera clearly bets on Solana to surpass Base, citing its advantages in low-cost micropayments. Meanwhile, The Block and Coinbase are more inclined to emphasize the overall rise of Stablechains (dedicated stablecoin chains) or Layer 2 ecosystems. This suggests that 2026 will witness a fierce competition over the "AI-native currency layer."
05 Survival Rules in the Industrialization Era
From the comprehensive outlook of top institutions for 2026, we clearly see that the crypto industry is undergoing a transformation similar to that of the internet between 1996 and 2000: from a marginal, ideology-driven experiment to an indispensable "industrial component" in the global financial and technology stack.
For investors and practitioners, the survival rules in 2026 will change:
Focus on Flows Rather Than Narratives
With the failure of the four-year cycle, relying solely on the halving narrative will no longer be effective. Focusing on the flow of funds into ETFs, the issuance of stablecoins, and the allocation of corporate balance sheets will be more critical. BlackRock, as the world's largest asset management company, points to the fragility of the U.S. economy in its 2026 outlook, along with the projected federal debt exceeding $38 trillion. This macro pressure will force investors and institutions to seek alternative means of value storage.
Embracing Compliance and Privacy
The GENIUS Act is expected to be fully implemented in 2026, providing a federal regulatory framework for payment-type stablecoins. The emergence of KYA standards signifies the end of the "wild growth" era.
However, both Grayscale and Coinbase have keenly captured the trend of a return to privacy technology. With the large-scale entry of institutions, they cannot accept exposing business secrets on fully transparent public chains. Therefore, compliance privacy solutions based on zero-knowledge proofs and fully homomorphic encryption will become a necessity. Grayscale even specifically mentioned that the established privacy coin Zcash (ZEC) may experience a revaluation due to this reassessment of "decentralized privacy."
Seeking Real Utility
Whether it is automatic payments by AI agents or collateralized lending of RWAs, the winners in 2026 will be those protocols that can generate real income and cash flow, rather than merely possessing governance rights as empty shell tokens.
Delphi Digital defines 2026 as a critical turning point — a shift from divergence to convergence in global central bank policies. The report predicts that as the Federal Reserve ends quantitative tightening (QT) and lowers the federal funds rate below 3%, global liquidity will flood back. Bitcoin, as a liquidity-sensitive anti-inflation asset, will directly benefit from this improvement in the macro environment.
06 Summary
As we stand at the end of 2025 looking towards 2026, we see not just cyclical fluctuations in an industry, but a fundamental shift in paradigm.
When Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, suggests that more countries may incorporate Bitcoin into their foreign exchange reserves in the future, it is not just an economic decision but a geopolitical game. If one country begins to accumulate Bitcoin as a reserve asset, other countries will face immense "fear of missing out" (FOMO) pressure to follow suit in order to maintain competitiveness.
In 2026, the crypto industry will no longer be seen as "magical internet money"; it is becoming a part of the world.
Those who can find real value in the wave of industrialization, maintain long-term allocations, and embrace compliance and innovation will be positioned at the starting point for the next decade.
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