From the current pace, it is highly likely that this week's market will not have significant fluctuations. Tomorrow and the day after are the weekend, and the overall trend will still be characterized by narrow fluctuations and sideways consolidation.
The market has been oscillating in the bottom area for a long time. Unless there are unexpected events, new fluctuations may occur around next Monday. With the end of the New Year's holiday, a new phase of the market is expected to gradually unfold.
It is important to emphasize that our overall expectations have not changed:
The structure remains unchanged, and the strategy remains the same, focusing on shorting at highs.
- Bitcoin: Key resistance not broken, bearish structure continues
The current segment of the trend is still a bearish structure. The main focus is on two resistance levels above:
The first resistance level is at 91,000, which has been emphasized as the bearish defense point.
If this level is effectively broken, it is highly likely to trigger a liquidation of shorts.
Subsequently, the previous high at 94,000 also has the potential to be broken.
However, as of now, 91,000 has been validated multiple times as an effective resistance, and it has not formed a breakthrough, so continuing to treat it as a bearish defense point is reasonable.
The structure has not changed, so the bearish strategy naturally remains unchanged.
Previously, the price encountered resistance and fell back around the 90,300 level. At that time, we clearly indicated that when the price approaches the resistance level again, one could consider positioning for shorts.
Subsequently, the price fell to the lower short-term support and rebounded near the support level. When the price dropped to the support area, we also advised against continuing to chase shorts, as the market is more likely to maintain fluctuations during the New Year's holiday.
At the 87,000 level, our judgment was:
Expect a rebound, not a trend reversal.
This viewpoint has also been shared in graphic form in the channel. The overall logic remains:
Wait for a rebound → End of the rebound → Then position for high shorts.
Currently, this rebound has already broken above 89,000, providing multiple opportunities for shorts.
We are still focusing on:
Defense point: 91,000
Short-term target: Whether the lower support breaks
Further attention to the integer level of 80,000
Until the key resistance is effectively broken, the market will still be treated according to the bearish structure.
- Ethereum: Key position game, focus on short positions in the short term
Last night, I provided a short position suggestion for Ethereum and clearly indicated to enter with a light position.
The reason is that although the market has been oscillating for a long time, the bearish structure has not been broken, and it is still in the structural confirmation phase.
From a structural perspective, Ethereum is similar to Bitcoin:
First down
Then rebound
Only when a key low is broken can the continuation of the 4-hour bearish structure be confirmed.
Before the low is broken, one can only participate in the rhythm of "down—rebound—down" rather than directly betting on a trending market.
This short position is set below the key resistance level, with the defense point still at 3050.
At that time, the price was around 2,980, with the defense point set at 3047, which is near 3050. This position has completed the transition between support and resistance multiple times in the past and is a very critical structural point.
If the price effectively breaks above 3050, it will be necessary to reassess the market, which may shift to a new upward structure.
The current short position strategy is:
Defense point: 3050
Short-term take-profit target: 2,860
The reason for targeting 2,860 is that in the short term, we can only see the lower edge of the current narrow fluctuation range, and short-term trading will still revolve around the breakout of the range.
It should be noted that this is a short-term short position. If there is an accelerated breakout over the weekend or on Monday, consider moving the stop-loss to further expand the take-profit space.
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