Master Talks Hot Topics:
First, let's talk about the recent surge in Bitcoin last night. To put it simply, the market has voted in favor of reality. U.S. stock futures began to rise during the Asian session and continued to climb when Europe and the U.S. opened. This indicates that it wasn't just a self-indulgent move in Asia, but that real money from Europe and the U.S. is also on board.
The actions of the U.S. regarding Venezuela essentially involve the repricing of energy and resources. If oil can flow smoothly, global inflationary pressures will naturally decrease, not to mention the push for gold and rare earths, which are hard assets. Capital never speaks of sentiment; it only looks at whether it benefits the U.S.
However, the problem is quite clear: prices have risen, but trading volume has not kept up. This has already revealed the underlying cards; this is not large capital entering the market, but rather liquidity scraps being matched against each other. The current market, to put it bluntly, is lacking liquidity; without liquidity, even the best stories are meaningless.
On the positive side, there are indeed signs of a slight recovery in liquidity as we enter 2026, but the real core variable is just one: U.S. monetary policy, and ultimately, it depends on how Trump stirs things up.
The recent trend looks like a continuation after a breakout, but fundamentally, it is still a weak rebound in a bear market. Those who haven't participated in the bullish trend need not worry; this kind of market is most likely to lure emotionally unstable people into the game.
The core task of the rebound is singular: to liquidate the shorts. If the shorts are not thoroughly crushed, the market cannot move smoothly. The previous high of 94.5K has already been raided once, and every subsequent rise will face hard resistance.
A true reversal means a complete change in the trend. This round is merely a rebound from the oversold level of 80.6K, which was supposed to finish in December, but has dragged on until now, indicating severe lag. 94K is the Fibonacci 0.5 level, and 97.1K is the 0.618 level.
The lower end of the futures liquidity gap is at 98K, theoretically allowing for more room to clear the liquidation. However, the higher it goes, the greater the risk. The most market-typical movement would be to first pull back a bit, lure in some shorts, and then push straight to 98K.
Now, regarding Ethereum, if it tests 3240–3250 again in the next couple of days and fails to hold, a short-term pullback is basically unavoidable. After the adjustment, a continued rise wouldn't be surprising, but it needs to be differentiated.
The stronger scenario would be a quick end to the adjustment after horizontal consolidation, breaking through and stabilizing, with targets still at 3700 and 3800. The weaker scenario would involve a deeper and longer pullback, necessitating a downward adjustment of the expected daily line rebound from 2623. Even if it touches the previous high, one must start considering a potential peak.
Of course, if a strong bullish candle directly breaks through 3240 and 3250 without hesitation, that would indicate a strong version. 3800 or even 3900 is not just talk, but before that, one must not chase highs with a full position.
Master Looks at Trends:
Since the market has rebounded, the operational support range should be moved up. Focus on the effectiveness of support in the range of 91.6K to 92.8K. In a rebound market, it’s not about stubbornly holding onto a support level, but rather gradually moving up the support as prices rise, seeking a more reasonable risk-reward ratio for trend trading.
The main pressure zone in the next phase is between 94.3K and 96.4K. Due to the rapid pace of the rise, a short-term pullback is a normal phenomenon. To go further, it must digest the gains through fluctuations and consolidation. Only after sufficient energy is built up can it pull back, allowing for greater subsequent space.
The RSI is at 72, in the overbought range, but as long as the trend does not show obvious deterioration, the idea of continuing to look for rebounds after a pullback remains valid.
Intraday, the first support at 92.8K can be considered a key short-term support. As long as the pullback can hold here, the probability of continuing the rebound will significantly increase. If 92.8K–94.3K can form a consolidation, it will be very beneficial for the next wave of upward movement. If unexpected weakness occurs, the lower space should look to the second support at 91.6K.
The first resistance is based on the previous high closing price of 94.3K as the upper boundary of the range. If it breaks through effectively again, there is a high probability that the range of 95K to 96K will be retested.
1.6 Master’s Wave Strategy:
Long Entry Reference: Buy in the range of 92200-92800, Target: 94300
Short Entry Reference: Not applicable for now
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they show screenshots of long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "catch every top and bottom," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
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