Written by: Curry, Deep Tide TechFlow
Last Friday, a16z announced the completion of a $15 billion fundraising.
Note, it's fundraising, not investment. It's LPs giving them money to invest in others.
How exaggerated is this number?
In 2025, all U.S. VCs raised a total of $66.1 billion, the lowest in 8 years. a16z alone took nearly 20%.
The industry is hibernating, and they are stockpiling.
But why are LPs willing to hand over money to them in this cold winter?
Perhaps because they have a track record of making money in winter.
In 2009, they invested in Facebook, just after the financial crisis when no one dared to act. In 2013, they invested in Coinbase, when most people thought Bitcoin was a geek's toy. In May 2022, Bitcoin fell by 55%, and Coinbase's stock price dropped by 80%, yet a16z still raised $4.5 billion for a Crypto fund.
At that time, the comments were mocking them for picking up the pieces.
Last year, The Information reported that this fund's returns surged. The reason is simple: they invested in Solana, which at that time rose from $8 to $180.
"Others fear, I am greedy," is often just a motivational quote.
But if you are greedy every time you are fearful, and you bet right every time, it becomes a:
Credit record.
Back to this $15 billion, how will a16z spend it?
Of this, $6.75 billion will be invested in long-term companies, adding to those that have already emerged and are ready to continue expanding. $1.7 billion will be invested in application layers, $1.7 billion in underlying technologies, and $700 million in biomedicine.
Additionally, $1.176 billion will be invested in a theme called "American Dynamism."
Translated directly, it means "American Vitality," which sounds like a slogan created by a high-end think tank. Looking at what they have already invested under this theme, you understand the true meaning of this term:
Making America capable of manufacturing again.
What to manufacture? Weapons.
In this part of the investment portfolio, companies like Anduril make autonomous weapon systems, Shield AI makes military drones, Saronic makes unmanned warships, and Castelion makes hypersonic missiles. These companies have one thing in common: their biggest customer is the Pentagon.
a16z has mentioned a statistic: if the U.S. were to engage in a conflict with China in the Taiwan Strait, the U.S. missile stockpile would be depleted in 8 days, and it would take 3 years to replenish.
In the eyes of Americans, this is not alarmism; it's business.
The U.S. military-industrial system is aging, and companies like Lockheed Martin are too slow and expensive; the Pentagon needs new suppliers. a16z is betting on this gap, using VC money to incubate a batch of "software-defined weapon" companies, waiting for them to grow and then sell to the Department of Defense.
$1.176 billion is not much, but it bets on a judgment. The U.S. is going to revitalize manufacturing, starting with the military-industrial sector.
Betting on the military-industrial sector requires more than just money; it also requires connections.
a16z does not lack this.
By the end of 2024, Marc Andreessen claimed to be a "unpaid intern" for DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency), helping the department recruit talent, reportedly spending half his time at Mar-a-Lago giving Trump ideas.
DOGE was disbanded early last November, but a16z's connections have not dissipated. Their first employee, Scott Kupor, is now the Director of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management.
Trump just said this week that next year's defense budget will increase to $1.5 trillion.
There are many VCs investing in the military-industrial sector, but few can influence policy while investing in companies.
This may also be one of a16z's true moats, not just in investing but also in participating in rule-making. Investing in missile companies while helping the government decide who gets contracts.
It feels a bit like being both a referee and an athlete.
You could say this is a conflict of interest, or you could say it's resource integration. In any case, LPs don't care; they only care about returns.
Many people know a16z because of Crypto.
In this $15 billion, Crypto was not listed separately but was included in the $3 billion "Others."
Has crypto been abandoned?
No. Ben Horowitz wrote clearly in his blog, "AI and Crypto are the key infrastructures of the future."
It's just that for a16z, Crypto no longer needs a separate fund.
In 2018, their first Crypto fund was $350 million. By 2022, it had grown to $4.5 billion. And now? They are investing directly from the main fund, alongside AI, military, and energy in the same pool.
What does this indicate?
It indicates that Crypto, in their eyes, has transformed from a "new track" into infrastructure.
Exchanges are infrastructure, public chains are infrastructure, DeFi protocols are also infrastructure. Like AWS, Nvidia, and missiles, they are all foundational elements.
Previously, there were VCs investing in Crypto; now, there are VCs investing in infrastructure.
The landscape has opened up.
For the Crypto industry, this is actually good news. Being categorized as "Others" may seem like a downgrade, but it actually feels more like graduation. It indicates that this thing no longer needs separate explanation; LPs understand it, and Western regulators are starting to accept it.
Of course, this also means that Crypto projects will have to compete for the same pool of money as AI and military.
Competition has intensified.
At the same time, Ben also wrote a line in his blog that Sequoia might not find very comfortable:
"As the leader of American venture capital, part of the fate of new technologies rests on our shoulders."
Sequoia has been around for 50 years, while a16z has only been around for 16. But now both manage around $90 billion, ranking first globally.
Why is that?
In the VC industry, essentially, two things are sold: vision and resources.
Proving vision is very difficult. You say you have good foresight, but you have to wait ten years to know. But resources are different; resources can be accumulated.
What a16z has been doing over the years is thickening their resources.
They have the strongest content team in the industry, with podcasts, blogs, and newsletters, producing output comparable to media companies. Entrepreneurs are exposed to a16z's worldview even before they receive funding.
They have a network in Washington. It's not just knowing a few politicians; it's directly placing people in the government.
They also have advantages that come with scale. When managing $90 billion, you can write a $1 billion check to SpaceX, which small funds simply cannot do.
It's not just about investing accurately; it's about making themselves irreplaceable.
Entrepreneurs come to you not just because you have a lot of money, but perhaps because you can help them secure government contracts. LPs come to you not just because of high returns, but because others lack your policy influence.
This approach is difficult for other VCs to replicate.
Of course, there are risks involved.
a16z's current strategy is partly tied to the fate of the U.S. If AI is to win, if the military-industrial sector is to rise, if American manufacturing is to be revitalized, these judgments, if wrong, could waste a large portion of the $15 billion.
a16z is betting not just on the technology cycle but on the political cycle. This cycle is likely harder to predict than the technology cycle.
But that said, LPs are willing to hand over $15 billion to them, indicating that the market believes in this judgment.
Or rather, in an uncertain world, a16z provides a kind of certainty:
We know how to turn money into influence and then turn influence into returns. Investing when others dare not, betting when others do not understand. Then waiting for the cycle to turn and reaping trust.
Therefore, this $15 billion can be understood as a trust vote from LPs to a16z.
Next, it will depend on how a16z invests it in America.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
