On January 23, 2026, the Bank of Japan, with a voting result of 8:1, chose to keep the short-term benchmark interest rate locked at 0.75%, breaking the market's partial expectations for further rate hikes. On the same trading day, expectations of a weak yen intensified, global risk asset sentiment warmed, while the cryptocurrency market showed signs of restlessness in terms of computing power, ETFs, and mid-to-long tail cryptocurrencies. One path is a cautious monetary authority, careful during a sensitive election period, while the other is a continuously expanding world of crypto assets driven by easing expectations and risk appetite. These two paths diverge on the same timeline, forming the main conflict of capital migration between "low-rate Japan" and high-risk crypto assets.
Interest Rate Frozen at 0.75%: The Tug of War Between BOJ Caution and Market Expectations
● Signals Released by the Decision: The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain the short-term interest rate at 0.75% with a voting result of 8:1 shows that there is no consensus within the decision-making body regarding the willingness to continue raising rates, but the majority of members still prefer to hold steady. This combination of "overwhelming majority + minority hawks" consolidates expectations for the continuation of the current monetary environment while also retaining future adjustment space, providing the market with limited but existing expectations for rate hikes.
● Adjustments in Price and Growth Expectations: While keeping the interest rate unchanged, the Bank of Japan raised its CPI forecast for FY2026 to 1.9% and increased its GDP growth forecast for FY2025 from 0.7% to 0.9% (both based on a single source), effectively acknowledging that a moderate recovery in inflation and growth is occurring. This combination of "data slightly better but not out of control" means that tightening is not imminent, supporting the policy layer's choice to continue observing rather than aggressively tightening.
● Conservative Stance During Election Sensitivity: Japan is currently in a sensitive election period, and monetary policy in this environment naturally leans towards caution, reducing additional disturbances to economic sentiment and asset prices. The interest rate frozen at 0.75%, combined with moderate upward revisions in inflation and growth expectations, reinforces external judgments that "low-rate Japan" will continue for some time, allowing carry trades and cross-border allocations to continue having institutional soil.
● Market Rate Hike Expectations vs. Cautious Reality: Against the backdrop of improving inflation and growth, some investors had bet that the Bank of Japan would release more hawkish signals, such as accelerating normalization or paving the way for higher interest rates. However, this decision suppressed aggressive expectations with a steady approach, creating a mismatch of "data slightly warm, but policy not urgent." The market's imagination of further rate hikes has been postponed, while the Bank of Japan responds to this impulse with a cautious stance, extending the time dimension of uncertainty.
Expectations of a Weak Yen Intensify: Global Capital Requeues
● Repricing of Yen Assets: With the interest rate remaining unchanged at 0.75% and a lack of more hawkish guidance in the short term, funds are reassessing the opportunity cost of yen assets. The relatively low yields of government bonds and cash positions are losing attractiveness in the global asset spectrum, and investors' motivation to continue holding yen-denominated assets is weakening, with the weak yen and long-term low yields increasingly seen as a structural risk that needs to be hedged.
● Low Yield Environment Boosts Attractiveness of External Assets: As expectations of "low-rate Japan" are confirmed or even strengthened, overseas bonds, stocks, and higher volatility emerging market assets appear more cost-effective in the eyes of yen investors. Borrowing low-yield yen to allocate to dollars or other high-yield assets has been reactivated, enhancing the impulse for funds to seek higher returns abroad, providing a source of momentum for cross-border flows and multi-asset rotations.
● Common Wind Direction of Traditional Finance and Crypto: In this macro wind direction, risk appetite is reflected not only in the recovery of U.S. stocks, commodities, and emerging market assets but also extends to crypto assets. Whether through compliant vehicles like ETFs to layout mainstream public chains or participating in higher volatility tokens through exchanges, funds are reallocating between the traditional and crypto worlds according to the same "low rate - high risk" logic, reflecting a unified macro drive.
● Policy "Slow Variables" Drive Medium to Long-Term Migration: Unlike short-term price fluctuations, monetary policy as a "slow variable" will continue to shape cross-market capital flows over a longer time scale. The Bank of Japan's combination of maintaining low rates and gradually raising expectations provides a stable background for medium to long-term carry trades and asset reallocation. As a result, some capital may continue to migrate from yen assets over the next few quarters, diverting into stocks, bonds, and crypto, which offer higher risk premiums.
Bitcoin Hashrate Climbs: On-Chain Prosperity and Monetary Easing Expectations in Sync
● Hashrate Data Highlights Network Resilience: According to a single source, the average hashrate of the Bitcoin network has reached approximately 1039 EH/s, up 3.4% from last week. In an environment of macro uncertainty and ongoing regulatory discussions, this number itself is a signal of "voting with electricity." The continuously rising hashrate indicates more mining devices are being connected and operated, raising the security threshold of the network, and the underlying infrastructure demonstrates resilience in expanding against the wind.
● Implicit Bets of Long-Term Miner Investment: Given the high costs of electricity and hardware, miners continue to increase their hashrate, which is essentially a capital-intensive bet on Bitcoin's long-term prospects. The weekly increase of 3.4% in hashrate is not a whim of short-term traders but the result of investment decisions made by mining farms, institutions, and operators planning over a longer time horizon, conveying confidence in the network's continued operation and value-carrying capacity in the medium to long term.
● "Digital Hedge" Narrative in Monetary Easing Expectations: In an environment where Japan remains steady and other major global central banks also tend to adjust slowly, some funds are repackaging Bitcoin as a "digital hedge" against currency devaluation and policy uncertainty. Although this narrative is controversial, under the combination of low rates, moderate inflation, and fiscal expansion that has not fully receded, Bitcoin's "non-sovereign asset" attribute is repeatedly emphasized, entering the configuration discussion list alongside traditional safe-haven assets.
● Resonance of On-Chain Fundamentals and Macro Sentiment: On one end is the improvement of on-chain fundamentals represented by 1039 EH/s, and on the other end is the macro sentiment regarding low rates and monetary easing expectations. The combination of the two supports the overall risk appetite in the crypto market. When investors see enhanced network security and miners continuously increasing their stakes, combined with macro liquidity expectations trending towards easing, they are more likely to accept taking on additional risks in high-volatility assets, thereby amplifying the rhythm of capital inflows and outflows.
From ETFs to Small Coins: The Diffusion Path of Funds on the Chain
● Symbolic Significance of Solana Spot ETF: According to a single source, the U.S. Solana Spot ETF saw a net inflow of $1.71 million in a single day. While this amount is not large enough to change market structure, it is highly representative on a narrative level. This inflow indicates that, in addition to Bitcoin and Ethereum, other mainstream public chains are gradually gaining compliant investment tools and institutional allocation space, and the "ETF-ization" of public chain assets is spreading to broader areas.
● Spot ETFs as Amplifiers for Institutional Entry: U.S. spot ETFs provide traditional institutions with a standardized, auditable exposure to crypto assets, rapidly enhancing the presence of mainstream public chain assets within the compliance system. For some funds constrained by compliance frameworks or custody requirements, ETFs become a bridge connecting traditional brokerage accounts with on-chain assets, amplifying the visibility and accessibility of mainstream assets on the institutional side.
● Fund Overflow from Head to Mid-Long Tail: While mainstream assets gain incremental attention through tools like ETFs, events such as BitMart listing DisclaimerCoin (DONT) reflect the other end of fund diffusion from head assets to mid-long tail. Although the technical and mechanism details of the related projects are not elaborated here, changes in listing rhythm and trading depth indicate that some funds, after gaining exposure to head assets, are beginning to seek higher elastic targets for satellite-style allocation.
● Traditional Market Caution vs. Localized Crypto Restlessness: Compared to the cautious observation of traditional stock and bond markets in the face of policy uncertainty, the localized "bubbling" phenomenon within the crypto sector is more pronounced. On one side, there is relatively stable long-term capital entering through net inflows into ETFs, while on the other side, there is short-term heat generated by new coins and thematic rotations on exchanges, forming a "steady yet restless" capital structure. This risk appetite, which is misaligned with the rhythm of traditional markets, is precisely what makes crypto unique in the global asset spectrum.
Allaire and Vitalik: The Collision of Regulatory and Sovereign Narratives
● Strong Statements in the Controversy Over Stablecoin Yields: Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire publicly stated that concerns about "stablecoin yields potentially triggering bank runs" are "completely absurd," directly responding to some regulators' worries about new digital currency tools potentially impacting the traditional banking system. This statement attempts to separate yield-generating products from systemic risks, emphasizing the differences in function and risk structure between stablecoin issuers and traditional banks.
● The Triangular Game of Yields, Bank Safety, and Monetary Sovereignty: Discussions surrounding the design of stablecoin yields essentially touch on three levels: users' pursuit of returns, the stable operation of the banking system, and the maintenance of monetary sovereignty by various countries. Regulators worry that high yields will induce funds to shift from bank deposits to on-chain asset pools, weakening the deposit base; the industry emphasizes that technological means and risk isolation can avoid systemic shocks. This tug-of-war is becoming increasingly sharp against the backdrop of changes in the interest rate environment and the expansion of digital assets.
● The Sovereign Tool View of the Decentralized Camp: Vitalik Buterin recently called for the construction and use of "tools that protect users' autonomy, human sovereignty, and freedom," viewing decentralized protocols as infrastructure to resist single-point control and abuse of power. From this perspective, crypto protocols are not merely speculative targets but technological carriers that allow users to maintain autonomy over currency, data, and identity, contrasting sharply with traditional regulatory preferences for centralized control.
● The Struggle Between Compliance and Sovereign Narratives: On one side is the compliance development path emphasizing KYC, scrutiny, and regulatory embedding, while on the other side is the decentralized ideal emphasizing anti-censorship, self-custody, and tool sovereignty. These two narratives are competing for discourse power amid current macro uncertainty and the turning point of monetary policy. Regulators are concerned about capital wandering disorderly in high-volatility assets, triggering systemic risks; the decentralized camp believes that it is precisely this uncertainty that highlights the value of non-sovereign, anti-censorship assets. This value conflict may form an additional amplifier for asset price volatility in the future.
Monetary Policy and Crypto Narratives: The Next Phase of Swinging Funds
From a medium-term perspective, the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain the 0.75% interest rate unchanged, along with raising CPI to 1.9% and GDP to 0.9%, consolidates global investors' expectations for "low-rate Japan" and moderate inflation. This structure drives some funds to reallocate among global assets, turning more attention to sectors with higher risk premiums, and provides a backdrop for crypto assets to continue participating in the global liquidity game. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's hashrate level of 1039 EH/s, the $1.71 million net inflow into the Solana spot ETF, and the trading heat generated by new coin listings collectively outline the internal "mainstream steady growth, marginal restlessness" of the crypto market.
In this macro and micro misalignment, the tug-of-war between regulatory and decentralized ideologies will further amplify the elasticity of asset prices in the next phase. If regulatory tones harden or if monetary policy rhythms undergo unexpected changes, the shaping of funding expectations by compliance and sovereign narratives may trigger a more intense repricing process. In the future, under the framework of slow adjustments in monetary policy and moderate fluctuations in inflation, global funds may repeatedly test between government bonds, stocks, ETF-ized crypto assets, and high-volatility on-chain tokens, voting with real money for the narratives they choose, completing rounds of cross-market risk preference redistribution.
Join our community to discuss and grow stronger together!
Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh
OKX Benefits Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=l61eM4owQ
Binance Benefits Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=ynr7d1P6Z
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
