Yesterday, the overall cryptocurrency market focused on rebound recovery, with Bitcoin gradually regaining lost ground during the session, currently trading above 88,000; Ethereum's trend also warmed up, with the price returning to the 2,900 level and continuing to oscillate upwards around this area. Overall, after a phase of short-term bearish momentum release, the market has entered a technical recovery rhythm, but the rebound strength remains restrained and has not formed a significant reversal.
From a market correlation perspective, the strong performance of U.S. stocks last night somewhat boosted the sentiment for risk assets, leading to a follow-up recovery in cryptocurrencies. However, the willingness for capital to follow up is not strong, and the rebound is more inclined towards emotional recovery and technical replenishment rather than a trend-driven increase propelled by incremental capital, thus the pressure above remains evident.
Bitcoin: 88,000–89,000 Area Becomes Core of Long and Short Battle
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's current rebound is facing a critical test. On the four-hour chart, the price is approaching the middle band of the Bollinger Bands around 88,600, which coincides with the previously lost 88,000–89,000 area during the decline. This range was originally an important support level, but after breaking below, it has turned into a technical resistance zone, so the current rebound is essentially a "retest confirmation."
If the price can effectively reclaim and stabilize above this area, it means the market has returned to the previous oscillation structure, and short-term bullish confidence will significantly recover, with the potential to once again challenge the 90,000 round number, or even test higher resistance levels. Conversely, if the rebound is repeatedly blocked here and fails to stabilize, it indicates that the selling pressure from trapped positions above remains heavy, making it easy for the price to weaken again and return to a downward rhythm.
In terms of indicators, the daily stochastic indicator has entered the oversold zone, and the MACD bearish momentum continues to shrink, indicating that the medium-term downward momentum is waning; while the four-hour MACD bullish bars are gradually expanding, the short-term rebound structure has not been damaged. Overall, there is still momentum for another upward push within the day, but the space depends on whether it can break through and stabilize above 89,000. The short-term support below focuses on the 87,000–86,000 area; once lost, the rebound structure will be weakened.
Ethereum: Oscillating Above 2,900, 3,000 Remains a Strong Resistance Area
Ethereum's structure is similar to Bitcoin's, but the trend appears slightly weaker. The current price has rebounded to the vicinity of the four-hour Bollinger middle band and has begun to oscillate; the 2,900–3,000 area is a dense trading zone where it previously consolidated for a long time, so the repeated tug-of-war here is a normal technical phenomenon.
The core in the short term is the 3,000 round number. This position is both a psychological level and the upper edge of the previous oscillation area. If it can be effectively reclaimed, market sentiment will significantly ease, helping to repair the weak expectations brought by the previous continuous pullback and opening up greater rebound space. However, if the price cannot break through and only oscillates repeatedly above 2,900 before falling back again, the market is likely to return to a downward testing rhythm, with the 2,800 level's support strength being tested again.
Within the day, the short-term focus can be on 3,000 as the main resistance level, while support below is noted at 2,860 and the 2,800 area.
Market Environment and Rhythm
On the fundamental side, there are no important economic data releases today, and market drivers are more influenced by sentiment and the performance of external assets. In the evening, attention should still be paid to the performance of U.S. stocks, as well as any remarks from relevant U.S. officials during the U.S. trading session that may bring changes in risk appetite; such factors often amplify short-term volatility.
Overall, Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently in a "technical recovery phase after a decline," but have not truly escaped the weak structure. The short-term focus is not on chasing the rise but on observing the pressure and stabilization of key resistance levels, which will determine whether the rebound evolves into a trend reversal or is merely a phase-based pullback. In terms of operational rhythm, it is still recommended to control positions around the range and patiently wait for the direction to become clearer.
This article is exclusively contributed by Jayne Crypto (follow the official account: Jayne Crypto) and represents personal views. Due to the timing of the article's release, the above views or suggestions may not be real-time and are for reference only. For more real-time guidance, please contact me!
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