From January 26 to February 1, 2026, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) invested approximately $75.3 million to acquire 855 BTC during a period of significant volatility in Bitcoin and bearish market sentiment, continuing its corporate treasury strategy of "buying on dips and accumulating." After this operation, the total amount of Bitcoin held by the company and its corresponding cost structure changed, with key indicators such as average purchase price and total holding cost being raised. While many institutional research reports still emphasize a "short-term bear market" and "buying at lower prices," a publicly traded company chose to increase its holdings against the trend in the $80,000+ price range, directly impacting the market's consensus on "reasonable entry prices" and amplifying external concerns about its balance sheet risk tolerance and long-term cycle judgments.
Concentration Signal of 713,502 BTC Held
● Holding Scale and Cost Structure: As of the completion of this round of purchases, Strategy has accumulated approximately 713,502 BTC, with a total cost of about $54.26 billion, indicating that its Bitcoin assets have evolved from "financial reserves" to a core component of its balance sheet. Based on the officially disclosed average holding cost of $76,052 per BTC, its overall position remains in a high volatility, high leverage beta exposure compared to current price levels, creating a strong pro-cyclical amplification effect on the company's market value and stock price.
● Approximately 3.4% Supply Share and Influence: Under the framework of Bitcoin's 21 million cap, with a rough estimate of 713,502 BTC held, Strategy's current holdings account for about 3.4% of the theoretical total. This concentration not only has a deterrent effect in absolute numbers but also reflects in market structure and narrative: large treasury holdings locked for the long term reduce the available trading chips, amplifying the intensity of marginal buying and selling pressure on prices, and granting this company an "implicit influence" beyond the traditional software company scope in regulatory discussions, institutional pricing frameworks, and even derivative hedging demands.
● From Software Company to Bitcoin Treasury Vehicle: As its holdings continue to expand, Strategy's core narrative is shifting from "enterprise-level analytics software provider" to "Bitcoin treasury and publicly traded holding vehicle." For shareholders, holding its stock is largely equivalent to indirectly allocating Bitcoin through traditional financial accounts, with the company's performance being far more sensitive to BTC prices than its main business itself. The valuation model has also been forced to shift from cash flow discounting to a "tech stock + crypto asset ETF" mixed logic, significantly altering the investor structure and risk preferences.
Pricing Signal of Buying at $87,974 High
● Entry Cost at a Premium of Approximately 15.7%: The average purchase price for this round of 855 BTC is $87,974 per BTC, significantly higher than the company's existing average cost of $76,052 per BTC, with a premium of about 15.7%. This indicates that while Strategy is raising the overall holding cost curve, it is also reinforcing a signal with real money: even at a price above its historical cost and far from what most institutions consider a "safe zone," the management is still willing to expand exposure, viewing price fluctuations as a process of long-term accumulation rather than a reason for passive profit-taking or reducing positions.
● Discrepancy with the $60,000 "Bottoming Range": According to a Bernstein research report (single source), mainstream institutions still prefer an ideal allocation path for Bitcoin that leans towards "building a medium to long-term bottom around $60,000," viewing it as a more cost-effective long-term buying range. In contrast, Strategy's $87,974 transaction range is far above this path assumption, reflecting its lesser focus on short-term retracement space and greater emphasis on the strategy of "locking in absolute quantities" as soon as possible, with clear misalignment in price anchor points and time priorities.
● The Implication of Increasing Holdings Against "Cheap Prices": While expectations of a "short-term bear market" or a potential pullback to lower ranges have not yet faded, the company chooses to continue increasing its holdings in what the market mainstream considers an "expensive" range, conveying three layers of meaning: first, viewing Bitcoin as a long-term scarce asset, believing that returns over several years will outweigh the current price difference of several tens of thousands; second, reinforcing the management's stance of "never shorting its core assets" through continuous buying, stabilizing supporter expectations; third, solidifying the foundation for potential future financing or equity stories, further amplifying the leverage effect of its balance sheet in the next bull market.
Treasury Discipline Behind Continuous Accumulation
● Framework for Long-term Asset Allocation: From the perspective of corporate asset allocation, Strategy has consistently adhered to the main line of "continuously accumulating Bitcoin" across multiple cycles, viewing it as a form of "enterprise-level digital gold reserves." The core of this framework is not about timing precise buys at local lows but rather about steadily increasing the Bitcoin allocation ratio through multiple batch purchases over a long cycle, maintaining a high elastic exposure of the balance sheet to both fiat currency inflation and technological growth cycles.
● Execution and Discipline During Price Correction Phases: This round of accumulation occurred during a period of heightened market volatility, with sentiment shifting from euphoria to caution, yet Strategy still proceeded with its planned purchases, reflecting an emphasis on internal investment discipline. Whether executing in batches during the time window from January 26 to February 1 or insisting on buying even when prices were not in the "bottom consensus zone," it indicates that its decision-making mechanism is more rule-driven than emotion-driven, aiming to mitigate price risk through time diversification rather than attempting to precisely time peaks and troughs in short-term fluctuations.
● Impact of Premium Purchases on Cost Curve and Volatility Tolerance: Increasing holdings at $87,974 will inevitably raise the overall average cost of $76,052, further amplifying the sensitivity of future paper profits and losses to price. This places higher volatility tolerance requirements on the company's management and shareholders: if short-term prices significantly retrace, paper losses may deepen, but from a long-term perspective, higher costs correspond to a larger absolute holding. If future cycles continue to elevate the Bitcoin price center, the current premium purchases will be reinterpreted as a necessary cost of "locking in scale," rather than simply "chasing highs."
Discrepancy in Bear Market Narratives and Institutional Rhythm
● Bernstein's Short-term Bear Market Judgment: According to Bernstein's single-source research report, the current crypto market is still defined as a "short-term bear market," with a major reversal potentially waiting until the first half of 2026. This viewpoint corresponds to a typical institutional rhythm: maintaining a wait-and-see approach in an environment where expectations remain unclear, prioritizing further accumulation only when lower price ranges or clearer policy signals emerge, with "controlling drawdowns" and "buying at lower prices" as primary goals to smooth net value fluctuations and risk exposure.
● Wait-and-see and Buying Low vs. Time Priority Strategy: In stark contrast, Strategy's core execution logic is "time prioritizes price," locking in the number of holdings through coherent accumulation even during a phase where the short-term bear market judgment has not been disproven. For typical institutions, Bitcoin resembles an alternative asset that requires precise assessment of position ratios and valuation ranges; within Strategy's framework, Bitcoin is closer to a "strategic reserve that must be held long-term," where short-term price fluctuations only change the slope of the cost curve without altering the directional decision to continue buying.
● Demonstration and Constraints for Other Public Companies and Institutions: This rhythm divergence provides other public companies with an "aggressive sample"—when management is highly confident in the long-term crypto cycle, they can leverage similar treasury strategies to amplify stock prices; on the other hand, it also poses potential constraints: not all companies can withstand such high volatility in balance sheet exposure, especially in environments with more conservative regulations, audits, and shareholder structures. Strategy's path will raise market expectations for "corporate holding scale and risk management capabilities," making more institutions more cautious in weighing whether to follow up with large allocations.
Cycle Game After Whales Accumulate Against the Trend
● Marginal Impact on Supply and Liquidity: Marginally, Strategy's continued accumulation at high levels and long-term holding has reinforced the "locking effect" on Bitcoin's supply side, reducing the number of tradable chips in the secondary market and amplifying the sensitivity of the spot and derivatives markets to new buying and selling. Although 713,502 BTC is still a partial concentration relative to the entire potential circulation, the entry and exit of this "enterprise-level whale" has become an undeniable structural variable in short-term price discovery and trading depth.
● Risk and Return Trade-off of Treasury Strategy: In the short term, high-level accumulation significantly amplifies the risk of paper drawdowns; if Bitcoin prices fall below the average cost, the volatility of the balance sheet will directly transmit to stock prices, testing the risk tolerance of shareholders and creditors. However, within the framework of long-term bull and bear cycles, if the Bitcoin price center continues to rise, the current high-level accumulation will transform into a pre-positioning layout for the next cycle's return elasticity: the company will be able to enjoy price increases with a larger holding scale in the future bull market, bearing a steeper volatility curve in exchange for potential excess returns and market attention.
● Amplification of Balance Sheet Performance and Influence After Bear Market Reversal: Looking ahead to the next six months to a year, if, as Bernstein suggests, the market sees a turning point from bear to bull in the first half of 2026, then this round of high-level accumulation in the $87,974 range will directly participate in the next phase of price increases. At that time, Strategy is not only expected to see substantial paper profits but also to further amplify its market influence as the "world's largest enterprise-level Bitcoin treasury"—whether in regulatory dialogues, institutional asset allocation frameworks, or the evolution of traditional capital markets' pricing methods for crypto assets, its actions and statements will continue to be amplified and interpreted.
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