On February 6, 2026, the "progress update" surrounding Solana ETF was once again amplified by the market, becoming the focus of discussion in the crypto community. However, publicly verifiable details remain extremely limited. The information sources are primarily from a single channel, with no formal documents disclosed by regulatory agencies and no clear statements from authoritative institutions. This information vacuum has instead amplified the space for imagination and controversy. On one side is the enthusiastic expectation for the "next mainstream public chain ETF," while on the other side are the hidden risks brought by regulatory uncertainty. In the absence of clear information, the question of how the expectations for the Solana ETF are impacting market sentiment and narrative structure has become the most pressing issue in this round of discussion.

Rumors Resurface: The Dilemma of a Single Source for Solana ETF Progress

● Concentrated Information Sources: The current news regarding Solana ETF progress primarily comes from a few, even a single market channel, rather than cross-verification from multiple leading media, regulatory agencies, and financial institutions. This means that the "progress" being discussed in the market is more at the level of second-hand interpretation rather than based on verifiable formal process nodes, leading to a higher degree of information fragility and likelihood of correction.

● Absence of Announcements: As of February 6, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC+8, there have been no publicly available regulatory application document numbers, acceptance announcements, or official statements from exchanges or asset managers. It is not the emotions that are absent, but the documents themselves, forcing rational participants to distance themselves between optimistic expectations and cautious skepticism, avoiding mistaking "someone said" for "it has already happened."

● Semantic Amplification: The vague expression of "progress update" is easily auto-completed by the market to mean "the application is on the way" or even "approval is just a matter of time." From community retweets to KOL interpretations, and then to media headlines, a layer of semantic amplification gradually turns originally ambiguous signals into perceived certainties, thus laying the groundwork for excessive emotional interpretation and unmet expectations.

Ether and Bitcoin Lead the Way: Solana Projected as "Next"

● Path Reference: The complete path taken by Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs has established a clear psychological reference for the market— from application disclosure, document exchanges, to regulatory games and final approvals, each step has a public timeline and document record. It is these traceable nodes that have transformed the ETF narrative from "fantasy" to a priceable reality, allowing investors to habitually use the same template to evaluate newcomers.

● Narrative Foundation: As a high-performance public chain, Solana has long been viewed as a mainstream player in the public chain competitive landscape, with high throughput, low transaction costs, and active ecosystem development as its core selling points. Due to its certain scale and topicality, it is naturally projected as a candidate "qualified to become the next mainstream public chain ETF target," providing a narrative rationale that supports the current ETF imagination.

● Reality Gap: However, compared to the "first-mover advantages" of BTC and ETH in terms of market capitalization, market penetration, and regulatory recognition, Solana still has significant gaps in compliance consensus and historical accumulation. The assessment of its attributes, risk characteristics, and market structure by regulatory agencies has not yet reached the maturity level of Bitcoin and Ethereum, which means that Solana's ETF path is likely to be more tortuous rather than simply replicating the linear progress of the first two.

Intertwining Imagination and Bubble: How ETF Expectations Rewrite the Narrative

● Valuation and Liquidity Fantasies: In the crypto market, any stirrings regarding ETFs are often directly mapped to expectations of significant increases in the valuation and liquidity of the underlying assets. Investors tend to view "potential ETFs" as gateways for institutional funds, preemptively discounting possible future inflows into current prices, thereby amplifying the imaginative space for on-chain assets, even though no verifiable product subscriptions have yet occurred.

● Community and Speculation Resonance: The Solana community's discussions about "potential ETFs" intertwine with the emotional games of short-term speculative funds, forming a self-reinforcing narrative loop. The community views ETFs as external endorsements for ecosystem development, while speculative funds treat them as tradable topics. Both resonate repeatedly on social platforms and derivatives markets, making "ETF expectations" themselves a story that can be bought and sold, rather than a mere information event.

● Emotion Precedes Data: At this stage, research briefs clearly indicate a lack of any public data on Solana ETF fund inflows or subscription scales; the transaction structure and fund direction also lack new evidence to support ETF-related logic. Emotions and stories lead, while fundamentals and data lag behind. If this misalignment continues to amplify, it is likely to evolve into an expectation bubble, which could negatively impact prices and confidence when real progress does not meet expectations.

Regulatory Reefs Unresolved: Solana's Compliance Questions

● Unclear Position: Among the existing public information, regulatory agencies have not provided a clear, systematic public stance on whether Solana is suitable as an ETF target. Unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have undergone multiple rounds of public hearings and regulatory document discussions, the current discussions around Solana's compliance attributes are more scattered and fragmented, lacking a definitive official framework, making any claims of "inevitable launch" or "approval imminent" seem overly premature.

● Procedural Comparison: Traditional ETF approval processes typically rely on transparent document submissions, acceptance announcements, revisions, and public disclosures, with cycles that may span several months or longer. Each step has corresponding document numbers and regulatory records for the market to track one by one. However, the current discussions surrounding Solana ETF have yet to produce such verifiable procedural documents, indicating that while discussions are heated, the visible parts of the formal process remain blank.

● Prohibition of Speculation: Research briefs have clearly marked certain information, including Morgan Stanley S-1 application details, as "pending verification," and emphasized the prohibition of fabricating any unverified ETF application or approval conclusions. Under such circumstances, packaging scattered rumors as narratives of "close to landing" not only misleads the market but also increases the systemic risk of ordinary investors being passively left holding the bag in an information asymmetry.

In an Era of Information Scarcity: How Investors Can Protect Themselves

● Distinguish First-Hand from Second-Hand: In a phase of extremely limited regulatory information, investors must first learn to distinguish between first-hand regulatory documents and second-hand market rumors. The former includes documents published on regulatory agency websites, formal announcements, and retrievable application numbers, while the latter often comes from social media, anonymous accounts, or reports with unclear sources. Do not be easily swayed by "insider information" or "exclusive revelations," and do not treat emotions as facts in the absence of document evidence.

● Focus on Visible Indicators: In the absence of ETF fund flow data, assessing Solana's long-term value can focus more on publicly available on-chain and ecosystem indicators, such as development activity, mainstream application usage, protocol revenue, and security incident records. While these long-term signals may not be as stimulating as the ETF narrative, they can help investors judge the project's true resilience after the story fades.

● Strictly Adhere to Position Discipline: For any ETF news from a single source, risk management should be prioritized rather than remedied afterward. Avoid excessive leverage or concentrated bets on a single asset due to short-term emotional fluctuations, set clear position and stop-loss rules, and view "potential benefits" as optional additions to the portfolio rather than the core basis for a high-stakes bet. In an incomplete information environment, discipline is often more important than judgment.

Giving Solana a Longer Cycle Between Expectation and Calm

The discussion around the Solana ETF, at least at this point in time, remains more at the level of expectations and emotions, with its impact on prices and market narratives far greater than any changes in actual fund flows or fundamental data. It reminds us that the market is willing to pay in advance for events that "may happen," but such prepayments often come with more intense emotional fluctuations and potential pullbacks.

Ultimately, what will determine the future direction will not be a single social media revelation, but rather the formal disclosure of regulatory documents, mutual verification from multiple sources, and a complete, transparent approval process. Only when these hard indicators gradually fall into place can the Solana ETF evolve from a topic into a reality that can be priced within a compliance framework.

From a longer-term perspective, Solana's mid-to-long-term performance will still need to return to the fundamentals of public chain competition, the evolution of the macro policy environment, and the overall rhythm of industry compliance processes. The ETF is just one possible amplifier, not the only variable determining its fate. Between expectation and calm, giving Solana a longer time dimension may also be the most responsible choice for one's risk asset allocation.

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