Samson Mow, chief executive officer of Jan3, shared on social media platform X on Feb. 5 a strongly bullish view that bitcoin is materially undervalued, arguing that current market prices fail to reflect fundamentals and signaling potential upside as the cycle evolves.
He stated:
“The fundamentals haven’t changed. There is no reason for bitcoin to be trading at these levels. Keep calm and HODL on.”
In an additional X post dated Feb. 4, Mow elaborated on his thesis, writing: “ Bitcoin has been in a bear market since 2025. That bear market is now coming to an end.” He referenced analysis from Bitwise’s chief investment officer, stating: “Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan put the bear market start date at January 2025. He also said that we are nearing the end of the bear market, which I agree with.” Mow challenged price-focused interpretations of market cycles, adding, “The main contention was that bitcoin made a new ATH in 2025, therefore it couldn’t have been a bear market. But that is an oversimplistic take on the entire macro situation.”
Hougan detailed his assessment in a post on X dated Feb. 3, describing the downturn as a prolonged crypto winter that began in early 2025 and is now approaching its later stages. He wrote: “We have been in a crypto winter since January 2025. Chances are, we’re closer to the end than the beginning.” Emphasizing the depth of the decline, he stressed, “This is not a ‘ bull market correction’ or ‘a dip.’ It is a full-bore, 2022-like… crypto winter.” The Bitwise executive explained that institutional capital flows obscured the extent of retail capitulation, observing, “Retail crypto has been in a brutal winter since January 2025.” Hougan pointed to ongoing bitcoin accumulation by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasuries, alongside legal clarity, concluding, “I think we’re going to come roaring back sooner rather than later.”
Mow reinforced that bitcoin’s trajectory should be evaluated across multiple dimensions rather than fiat price alone. He wrote:
“So, bitcoin has been in a bear market for a long time now. Albeit a bear market where it did make an ATH in fiat terms. But these are not normal times. Just look at what’s happening with metals. We’re in the late stages of fiat and anything can happen.”
Read more: Crypto Bull Run Forming as 9 Major Forces Align, Bitwise Says
He highlighted positioning among informed participants, stating: “For every individual and company that understands this, they are accumulating with speed and urgency. Plan accordingly.” Advocates of this view argue that relative performance against equities, gold, and monetary expansion provides clearer insight into cycle dynamics, while bitcoin’s fixed supply, growing institutional familiarity, and global liquidity continue to support its long-term investment thesis.
- Why does Samson Mow believe bitcoin is materially undervalued right now?
Mow argues that bitcoin’s fundamentals—fixed supply, institutional adoption, and macro monetary stress—remain intact while market prices fail to reflect these long-term drivers. - How can bitcoin be in a bear market despite making a new all-time high?
According to Mow and Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, fiat-based price highs mask broader weakness when measured against macro conditions, retail participation, and relative performance versus other assets. - What signals suggest the crypto winter that began in early 2025 may be ending?
Indicators include sustained ETF and corporate treasury accumulation, improving regulatory clarity, and signs that retail capitulation is largely complete. - What is the key takeaway for long-term bitcoin investors?
Both Mow and Hougan suggest informed investors are aggressively accumulating, viewing the current phase as a late-cycle opportunity ahead of a potential recovery.
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