Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains firmly bullish despite recent volatility. Research and brokerage firm Bernstein reiterated a $150,000 bitcoin price target for the end of 2026 on Feb. 9, arguing that the latest pullback reflects confidence dynamics rather than structural damage to the market.
Bernstein analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra, framed the current drawdown as unusually mild compared with past cycles marked by leverage and institutional failures. They said:
“What we are experiencing is the weakest bitcoin bear case in its history.”
The analysts characterized the decline as self-inflicted instead of systemic, pointing to the absence of major exchange collapses, hidden leverage, or cascading balance-sheet stress. They described: “When all stars are aligned, Bitcoin community manufactures a self-imposed crisis of confidence. Nothing blew up, no skeletons will unravel. Media is back again to write an obituary. Time remains a flat circle on bitcoin.”
The research team believes that spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), expanding corporate treasury participation, and continued involvement from large asset managers sharply differentiate the current environment from earlier downturns that culminated in prolonged crypto winters.
The bullish assessment follows a highly volatile trading period from Feb. 2 through Feb. 9. On Feb. 5, bitcoin dropped to near $60,000, marking its lowest level since October 2024 and triggering more than $1 billion in liquidations amid global risk-off sentiment linked to weakness in technology stocks and precious metals. A rapid rebound lifted prices back toward the low-$70,000 range before stalling, leaving bitcoin down about 15% on the week and trading below $70,000.
Read more: Analysts Target $1M Bitcoin With a Surging Institution-Led Cycle
Bernstein has projected bitcoin to reach $1 million by 2033, a valuation grounded in the asset’s transition from a retail-led speculative tool to a digital gold alternative for institutional treasuries. This long-term target remains fixed despite recent adjustments to the firm’s mid-term outlook. The projection is built upon several core structural pillars, including the expectation that spot ETFs will manage approximately $3 trillion in assets by 2033. The firm forecasts that these regulated vehicles will eventually absorb 15% of the total circulating supply, creating a liquidity vacuum that drives exponential price appreciation.
Furthermore, the firm anticipates a major shift where public corporations follow the active leverage model to replace traditional cash reserves with bitcoin to hedge against currency debasement. Finally, they argue the traditional four-year halving cycle is being superseded by a structural demand era where institutional capital prevents the deep, multi-year crypto winters seen in the past.
- Why does Bernstein still expect bitcoin to reach $150,000?
Analysts say ETF inflows, corporate treasury demand, and limited supply support a $150,000 end-2026 target. - What caused the recent bitcoin price drop?
The decline was driven by confidence-driven selling and global risk-off sentiment, not systemic crypto failures. - What level do analysts see as bitcoin’s downside floor?
Bernstein identified $60,000 as a hard floor tied to the 200-week moving average and long-term holder cost basis. - How is this bitcoin drawdown different from past cycles?
Analysts say it lacks leverage blowups or institutional collapses seen in prior bear markets.
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