Escalating geopolitical tensions are reshaping the global market outlook. Global investment bank HSBC published “Special Coverage: Markets assess the impact of Iran conflict” on March 2, written by Willem Sels, Global Chief Investment Officer, HSBC Private Bank and Premier Wealth, outlining scenario-based forecasts for oil, currencies, rates, and equities.

“The US and Israel struck Iran this weekend in Operation Epic Fury, resulting in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader and leading to retaliation by Iran across several countries,” the report states. “There’s considerable uncertainty on the succession, on how the military conflict evolves and on the many ramifications for the regional and global economy.” The analysis further emphasizes:

“The market impact will mostly depend on how long the conflict lasts, whether oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz is blocked and whether Iran’s oil production is interrupted.”

HSBC highlights the Strait of Hormuz as a critical energy chokepoint, carrying about 19% of global oil supply, meaning any disruption could quickly feed into inflation expectations, commodity prices, and broader financial markets. Iran’s production of roughly 4.7 million barrels per day adds to the scale of potential supply-side risks.

“There’s a clear hit to risk appetite,” the bank observed, pointing to declines of 4%–6% in Egyptian and Saudi Arabian markets on March 1. The report adds:

“A lasting conflict would boost oil, gold, USD, JPY and CHF, flatten yield curves and hurt equities, with cyclicals and European stocks underperforming the US and Asia.”

In its central scenario, HSBC expects oil to remain volatile but avoid a sustained spike, allowing global growth to stay relatively resilient while major central banks maintain a cautious pause. Gold remains supported as a hedge, and U.S. equities are positioned to demonstrate relative resilience compared with European markets.

Addressing tail risks, the report cautions:

“We believe that a prolonged blockade would be hard to implement, but even a short one would cause an oil price spike.”

Under a more severe escalation, HSBC projects a stronger U.S. dollar, firmer Japanese yen and Swiss franc, widening credit spreads, flatter yield curves, and broad equity weakness, particularly among cyclicals and energy-importing regions. Conversely, renewed negotiations could ease oil prices, stabilize inflation expectations, compress spreads, and revive risk appetite across global markets.

• How could the Iran conflict impact global oil prices?
  Oil prices may spike if supply routes or Iranian production are disrupted, lifting inflation and market volatility.
• Which assets could benefit during prolonged escalation?
  Gold, the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc may gain as investors seek defensive positions.
• What happens to equities in HSBC’s central scenario?
  U.S. equities show relative resilience while European and cyclical stocks face greater pressure.
• What is the biggest tail risk for investors?
  A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger an oil shock, wider credit spreads, and broad equity weakness.

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