MVC Market Insights Dispatch (3.9-3.15)

CN
8 hours ago

Recently, the situation in the Middle East has intensified, and the market's pricing of the Iran conflict is still evolving. Our judgment is that the United States is unlikely to deploy ground troops, and it is more probable that the internal situation in Iran will leverage external pressure to legitimize a reshuffle of its regime structure. If oil prices rise by 20%, it will trigger a response mechanism within U.S. policy, which is overall manageable. Before oil prices fall below $100, the geopolitical premium will continue to disrupt market sentiment. However, the long-term trend (especially related to commodities/precious metals) remains in an upward channel, and we plan to increase our positions when prices dip.

In this context, we are focusing on three main lines:

First, commodities and resources. The combination of geopolitical risks and the reconstruction of the credit system keeps gold trading at high levels, and we remain optimistic about the precious metals sector, gradually positioning ourselves in gold mine-related assets. Copper, as a mid-to-long-term allocation type, will benefit from future liquidity expansion cycles, and we are simultaneously monitoring the allocation window.

Second, digital assets. BTC has shown stronger performance compared to stocks recently, but there have not yet been clear signals of a trend reversal. We maintain a cautious observation approach, prioritizing the control of drawdowns while waiting for confirmation of a turning point in U.S. dollar liquidity.

Third, AI and technology. Currently, the market pricing of AI leaders is relatively adequate, making it difficult to find excess consensus in the short term. Future trends will highly depend on changes in the global liquidity environment.

Overall, we continue to focus on the two core judgments of "reconstruction of the traditional credit system" and "the East rising while the West falls," emphasizing the allocation of resource assets priced in Renminbi while seeking flexibility within certainty.

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