Written by: Deng Tong, Golden Finance

The stock price of Circle has doubled since early February, contrasting sharply with the overall downturn in the cryptocurrency market. As of the time of writing, Circle's stock price is reported at $115.81, an increase of 100.16% over the past month.

The Bernstein report points out that the adoption of stablecoins is increasingly decoupling from cryptocurrency market cycles. Despite the market being in a bear phase, the supply of USDC has rebounded to nearly a record $78 billion, while the total market capitalization of dollar-pegged stablecoins remains stable at around $270 billion. Payment adoption is the main driving force, as stablecoins gradually integrate into traditional payment networks. Visa currently supports over 130 stablecoin-linked cards in more than 50 countries, with an annual settlement volume of about $4.6 billion. AI-driven "proxy finance" could become a new growth theme, with machine-to-machine micro-payments between autonomous software agents needing stablecoins as a natural payment medium.

What factors are driving the rise in Circle's stock price? What is the future of CRCL?

1. CRCL "Outperforming the Market"

CRCL is one of the best-performing stocks on Wall Street so far in 2026. Bernstein recently reiterated its "outperform" rating for CRCL stock and set a target price of $190.

Circle's stock has risen about 49% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq 100 index, which have both seen a drop of around 1%. According to Bernstein's target price, Circle's stock has a 60% upside potential from its current level.

At the beginning of February, Circle's stock price was only around $50, and just over a month later, its stock price has more than doubled.

Circle's stablecoin USDC has seen its market capitalization grow by over $2.3 billion in the past week, and nearly $5.9 billion in the past 30 days. Data from Token Terminal show that USDC's trading volume on the Ethereum network exceeded $1.7 trillion in February, a year-on-year increase of 250%. According to blockchain data research firm Allium, total stablecoin trading volume reached a record $1.8 trillion in February, with USDC's trading volume being $1.26 trillion (about 70%), more than twice that of USDT ($514 billion, about 28.5%).

2. Why is Circle's Stock Price So Bright?

1. Building AI Payment Infrastructure

Currently, Circle is laying the groundwork for AI payment infrastructure, attempting to enhance the application of USDC through automated payments via artificial intelligence agents. In Circle's Q4 2025 earnings call, CEO Jeremy Allaire stated, "We have made significant progress on the Arc project and are steadily moving towards the mainnet launch of Arc, which is expected to go live in 2026."

USDC is transforming from a mere cryptocurrency asset to the underlying currency of the global AI economy, which is crucial for breaking away from the ups and downs of the crypto bull and bear cycles and is the core of its stock price soaring.

In January of this year, Allaire pointed out: stablecoins will become the foundational payment layer for artificial intelligence. "Billions of AI agents" will soon need a native medium of exchange, and no traditional payment system can meet this demand. "AI agents will continuously conduct economic activities at very high speeds, and transaction amounts often only amount to a fraction of a cent. Pulling out your credit card or bank transfer is completely absurd. In my view, there is no alternative to stablecoins at this time."

Having AI agents "buy things on Amazon" is not the ultimate goal. "The real opportunity lies in the various information that needs to be acquired among AIs." Given that the transaction fees charged by traditional payment channels make small payments (even smaller than the mentioned $0.31 transaction) unviable, this is where the real opportunity lies. "We are building a whole new internet financial system, and I am very optimistic that Circle can play a key role in the integration of artificial intelligence, stablecoins, and blockchain."

Circle's Head of Global Markets, Peter Schroeder, listed a set of data to illustrate Circle's significant position in the AI agent space.

In the past nine months, there have been 140 million payments between AI agents. Some statistics are as follows:

• Total transaction volume of $43 million (98.6% settled in USDC)

• Average transaction amount of $0.31

• Over 400,000 agents with purchasing capability

USDC is the default currency of choice for agents.

Circle is striving to build a payment system for "a world yet to exist," and the potential in the AI agent domain is stimulating Circle's stock price potential.

However, AI agents still face hallucinations, and some experiments suggest they may run out of control: "acting outside predefined sandbox boundaries without any explicit instructions."

2. Geopolitical Risks in the Middle East

Mizuho Bank in Japan stated that the rise in Circle's stock price partially reflects the surge in oil prices following the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Rising crude oil prices could reignite inflationary pressures, reducing market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Circle calculated in its prospectus that for every 100 basis points the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the annual interest income loss for Circle is about $618 million. In 2025, the Federal Reserve cut rates by a total of 75 basis points, and just this single variable alone reduced Circle's annual revenue by nearly $200 million.

Rising crude oil prices could push inflation expectations higher again, reducing market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, while the earnings of stablecoin issuers are highly dependent on dollar interest rate levels, thus maintaining high rates is seen as favorable for Circle.

3. Short Squeeze Triggered by Earnings Data

Previously, Circle's earnings report exceeded expectations. On February 25, Circle announced earnings that surpassed expectations, with total revenue and reserve income for the fiscal year 2025 reported at $2.7 billion, an increase of 64%—stimulating the stock price to surge by 35% on that day, completely reversing the downward trend of the company’s stock price, setting the largest single-day increase in history.

In the past few weeks, Circle's stock price has risen by over 100%, further triggering a short squeeze.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10xResearch, stated that this stock price increase may reflect a significant amount of short-selling activity prior to the earnings report's release. "The scale of this action is not just reflected in surface numbers; the real catalyst lies in market positioning," as hedge funds had accumulated a large number of short positions before the report release. This situation reflects "a high probability of a short squeeze rather than a fundamental reassessment."

4. Implementation of Stablecoin Regulations

Bernstein's optimistic outlook for Circle is primarily related to the rapid adoption of stablecoins, especially with clearer regulations regarding the use of digital dollars by American enterprises.

The passing of the GENIUS Act in 2025 undoubtedly benefits Circle's development outlook, as it establishes a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins. The act sets standards for reserve backing, disclosure and regulatory standards, providing clearer guidelines for companies issuing and utilizing dollar-pegged tokens.

After the act was passed, the overall stablecoin market grew by 19%, with USDC’s market share rising from 24% at the beginning of the year to 25.5%. Circle directly benefits from this policy shift.

5. Circle’s Cooperation with Traditional Finance

Circle has also built a reputation among traditional financial institutions. Circle went public in 2025 and has partnered with several major Wall Street firms.

BlackRock manages Circle's reserve fund, which holds most of the supporting assets for USDC, while BNY Mellon serves as the main custodian of these reserves. Circle has also attracted investments from several large institutions, including Fidelity and Goldman Sachs, reflecting growing interest in stablecoin infrastructure from traditional financial institutions.

Additionally, stablecoins are increasingly being integrated into traditional payment networks for everyday transactions. For example, Visa currently supports over 130 such stablecoin-linked cards in 50 countries, with an annual settlement volume of approximately $4.6 billion.

Circle is also expanding its Circle Payments Network, which allows institutions to send USDC across borders and convert it to local currencies through banking partners. As of February, 55 financial institutions have joined the network, with another 74 undergoing qualification review.

6. Expansion of Flagship Products

Circle has also announced significant expansions for its flagship products. Starting March 9, 2026, the native USDC and its cross-chain transfer protocol (CCTP) will be launched on EDGEChain. This integration will bring a fully regulated, dollar-backed stablecoin directly into one of the most promising high-performance blockchain ecosystems and provide seamless cross-chain capabilities, eliminating reliance on wrapped or bridged assets.

On March 11, Circle announced the launch of the Circle Nanopayments testnet, which supports USDC transfers of as little as $0.000001 and enables single transactions with zero gas fees, aimed at providing a foundational payment layer for the AI agent economy. This solution has been validated in collaboration with open-source robotic developer OpenMind and is currently open across multiple testnet chains, including Ethereum, Arbitrum, Optimism, Avalanche, Base, and Polygon.

The mainnet launch of Arc is steadily progressing, with a public testnet already online, attracting over 100 participants covering sectors such as banking, capital markets, digital assets, payments, and technology. The testnet runs strong with nearly 100% uptime and a transaction confirmation speed of 0.5 seconds, and is expected to launch in 2026.

3. Future of Circle's Stock Price

1. Challenging $300

The technical outlook for Circle Internet Group remains bullish, with its stock price above its 50-day moving average, suggesting continued upward momentum in the short term.

Circle's stock price is currently facing technical resistance at $110, which served as a support level from September to November last year. Once this barrier is broken, it may oscillate in the range of $110-$150 and then further challenge the historical high of $300.

2. Risks of Overvaluation

Circle's stock is currently overvalued, as its value score of F corroborates this.

Its price-to-book ratio (P/B) for the past 12 months is 9.2 times, far exceeding the industry average of 2.78 times, indicating a significant premium in its stock price relative to its book value.

Compared to its peers, the stock valuation of CRCL appears high. The valuation multiples of Strategy, Hut 8 Corp., and Cleanspark are 0.98 times, 3.21 times, and 1.78 times, respectively.

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