Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010)

The time left for traditional betting companies is running out, which may be the latest consensus on the prediction market track.

In the recently concluded Oscar Award event, Kalshi and Polymarket's total betting funds broke the $100 million mark for the first time, while this figure was still below $10 million last year. On the other hand, Kalshi partnered with Cash APP to streamline user payment channels; Polymarket, after launching the AI AgentCLI application, now supports AI Agent trading 24/7 with the AgentCard launched by Alchemy. In this historically significant "prediction big year" of 2026, the prediction market duopoly is competing for new users in its own way against traditional betting companies, internet platforms, traditional media, and the traditional financial industry, targeting first the real users of payment channels and the tireless AI Agents.

New Winning Grounds for Prediction Market Giants: Payment Channels and AI Agent Users

Last week, the well-known investment firm Paradigm released the first public opinion survey report of the year, which is also the firm's first survey report on prediction market platforms.

The survey results show that over one-third (about 36%) of American voters have used prediction markets, either by placing bets or browsing markets for information.

In terms of user structure, the group under 50 years old accounts for as much as 66% of the prediction market demographic, with the 18-34 age group making up 20% and the 35-49 age group 27%; non-white voters use prediction markets at slightly higher rates than white voters, and males use prediction markets significantly more than females (46% vs. 31%).

From this perspective, in the American market, prediction markets are no longer the once "niche track," but rather "information sources," "trading platforms," and "information pools" closely related to thousands of households.

Of course, as the lead investor in Kalshi's previous $1 billion financing, Paradigm's move is undoubtedly a "Shout out for his Bag" (promoting its own investment project), which is understandable, but behind this survey reflects a new question—how will the prediction market duopoly Kalshi and Polymarket penetrate the remaining 64% of American voters and all American citizens?

The answer is naturally: either fight against the old forces; or seek new increment.

Kalshi’s New Incremental Method: Streamlining Payment Channels to Encourage User Deposits

From March 2 to March 8, Kalshi's trading volume surpassed 20 million trades for the first time, setting a new single-week trading record since the platform’s inception. With trading volume and the number of trades consistently hitting new highs, if it wants to take a step further, searching for the existing user pool is undoubtedly the most efficient strategy.

This may be why Kalshi announced its partnership with Block's payment app Cash APP last week. The official words from Kalshi were even more direct—“Make funding your Kalshi account easier with Cash App Pay.” The wording is almost shouting "Quickly use Cash App Pay to deposit money and start betting" on their face.

After all, even if only one percent of Cash App's 59 million monthly active trading users converts, it would bring Kalshi nearly 600,000 users, which is equivalent to the user base they have painstakingly developed over two to three years. More importantly, all of these are "incremental cakes."

Polymarket's Market Expansion Method: Besides Humans, AI Agents Are Also Target Users

On the other side of the prediction market, Polymarket, as one of the duopolists, is also performing admirably.

Since resuming operations in the United States last November, as of March 14, the nominal trading volume on Polymarket's U.S. platform has exceeded $750 million, with trading counts exceeding 5 million. Previously, the platform's open contract volume peaked at $2.6 million but has recently fallen back to around $1 million.

Additionally, according to Dune data, since January 6, when trading fees were imposed on certain markets (including NCAA and crypto rising and falling markets), Polymarket has accumulated over $11.2 million in fee income. In other words, Polymarket has fully verified its self-funding capability.

Therefore, with great ambition, Polymarket is no longer content with the existing market of human users, but has even begun betting on supporting AI Agents for trading 24/7.

Last weekend, the crypto payment platform Alchemy officially launched the AI agent payment platform AgentCard, which aside from the usual food delivery, AI application subscriptions, and other payment functions, emphasizes that “users' AI Agents can now trade on Polymarket 24/7”; this news was subsequently confirmed by Polymarket's official account.

In the backdrop of OpenClaw's "lobster" craze, x402, ERC8004, and ERC8183 supporting AI Agent payments, coupled with Polymarket's previously Polymarket CLI specifically designed for AI Agents, a prediction market platform supporting data queries, order execution, position management, and interaction with on-chain contracts has gradually taken shape.

Just like Circle's stunning transformation from a "stablecoin issuer" to the "financial infrastructure of the AI era," Polymarket has already occupied this important ecological niche of "prediction market platform for AI Agents." As NVIDIA founder Jensen Huang said at last year's CES, the AI Agent industry may become a trillion-dollar track like the robotics industry, and the 24/7 tireless AI Agents may first shine in the prediction market.

Conclusion: The New War of Prediction Markets Has Already Begun

Undoubtedly, the new war belonging to prediction market platforms has quietly begun, including deep activation of existing users, continuous incentives for active users, and ongoing conversion of new users; it also includes the extension of event betting boundaries, communication with regulatory forces, and even future developments targeting AI Agents as "potential active users."

Previously, the founder of the BSC ecosystem prediction market platform Predict.fun, Dingaling, had planned to launch products related to the combination of prediction markets and DeFi, intending to provide users with account funding management interest revenues, which can also be considered an alternative "PayFi revenue product," and is also quite worth期待.

No matter what the outcome of the prediction market development is, in the quest for $20 billion or more in funding, Kalshi and Polymarket have already opened up new growth levers.

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