Author: ShenChao TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: After a Strong Rebound

On Monday (March 16), Wall Street experienced an exhilarating rebound.

The Nasdaq led with a gain of 1.23%, closing at 22,374 points; the S&P 500 rose 1.01% to 6,699 points; the Russell 2000 increased by 0.94%; and the Dow Jones gained 0.83%, closing at 46,946 points. About two-thirds of the market ended in the green, with the VIX fear index plunging over 13%, falling below 24.

What drove the strong rebound on Monday? The collapse of oil prices.

WTI crude oil plummeted nearly 5% on Monday, dipping below $93, which helped U.S. stock futures rise sharply starting Sunday night. The oil price significantly fell from the panic peak of over $100, easing market concerns about uncontrolled inflation.

Technology stocks performed the strongest, with Meta surging nearly 3% at the open, ultimately closing up 2.33% at $627.45. Reports over the weekend suggested that Meta might lay off at least 20% of its workforce while announcing a $27 billion AI infrastructure deal with AI firm Nebius, which became a catalyst for Monday's tech stock surge.

NVIDIA rose over 2.5% on Monday as CEO Jensen Huang was expected to speak at the company's annual GTC conference. Chip stocks collectively surged: Intel up 6.29%, Micron Technology up 6.20%, and Seagate up 5.83%.

Among the 30 constituents of the Dow, Salesforce led with a 2.86% increase, Amazon rose 1.93%, and Boeing gained 1.66%. The biggest loser was Disney, down 0.76%, followed by Verizon down 0.70% and American Express down 0.68%.

Markets are expected to rest slightly after the robust rebound on Monday, awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday.

Oil Prices: Continued Surge After Brief Pullback on Monday

The oil price trend is completely out of control, resuming its climb after a brief dip on Monday.

At 9:30 AM Eastern Time on March 16, Brent crude oil was priced at $102.14 per barrel, down $3.05 from the previous day. On March 16, Brent crude was at $104.22 per barrel, while WTI was at $98.88 per barrel.

But this was just a brief breather. Early on March 16, oil prices continued to rise after the U.S. attacked Iran's key oil export hub, Kharg Island, marking the third week of war. Brent crude futures opened at $105.26, indicating that market panic over supply disruption was still intensifying.

The reason for Monday's brief pullback was Trump’s promise to "end the war soon."

WTI crude oil plummeted nearly 5% on Monday, dipping below $93, which helped U.S. stock futures surge earlier on Sunday night. But this pullback quickly proved to be temporary, as the market no longer believes any of Trump’s promises regarding "ending the war soon."

The IEA issued an emergency report, predicting a global oil supply drop of 8 million barrels per day.

The IEA’s March oil market report indicated that global oil supply is expected to plummet by 8 million barrels per day in March, with significant production cuts in the Middle East partially offset by increased output from non-OPEC+ producers, Kazakhstan, and Russia.

Oil prices have fluctuated sharply since the U.S. and Israel jointly attacked Iran on February 28. Due to attacks on Middle Eastern oil infrastructure and halted tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent futures once surged to nearly $120 per barrel, then dropped to around $92, but still rose by $20 per barrel in March.

The refined oil market has collapsed, and the global aviation and petrochemical industries are paralyzed.

Refined oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have nearly completely stopped. Producers in the Gulf are set to export 3.3 million barrels of refined oil and 1.5 million barrels of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) daily by 2025. Due to the attacks and lack of viable export channels, the region has already had over 3 million barrels of refining capacity shut down daily.

Major airports in the Middle East have suspended flights, and the ripple effects on global hubs have significantly reduced global aviation kerosene demand. The sharp decline in LPG and naphtha supply has compelled petrochemical plants to cut polymer production, exacerbating the loss of petrochemical products in the Gulf region.

The use of LPG for cooking and heating, especially in India and East Africa, also faces risks.

The IEA has lowered global oil demand expectations.

Due to flight suspensions, sharp declines in LPG and naphtha supply, and surging oil prices eroding demand, the IEA has downgraded global oil demand expectations for March and April by more than 1 million barrels per day on average—reducing the expected annual demand growth for 2026 by 210,000 barrels per day to 640,000 barrels per day.

How long can the inventory last?

Consuming countries hold large oil inventories to cope with temporary supply losses. The global observed crude and refined oil inventories are currently estimated to exceed 8.2 billion barrels, the highest level since February 2021.

But the question is: when will the war end? The conflict has entered its third week, with the U.S. attack on Kharg Island marking an escalation. If the war lasts more than two months, the 8.2 billion barrels of inventory will be exhausted, and oil prices may surpass $150 per barrel, plunging the global economy into recession.

U.S. shale oil producers are the biggest winners.

If the average price of WTI crude reaches $100 per barrel, U.S. shale oil producers can earn an additional $63.4 billion by 2026, particularly those companies with no operations in the Middle East. The longer the war lasts, the more U.S. energy companies profit, which explains why the market increasingly doubts Trump's promise to "end the war soon."

Gold: Dropping Below $5,000, Strong Dollar and Inflation Fears Weighing Heavy

On March 17, the price of gold was $5,012 per ounce. On Monday, March 16, spot gold plummeted 1.2%, testing the psychological level of $5,000, closing at $5,019 per ounce.

Silver closed at $80.60 per ounce, down $0.62 for the day (-0.76%). The gold/silver ratio expanded to 62.3, indicating that silver is more sensitive to concerns about industrial demand.

Why did gold plunge when both war and inflation should provide favorable conditions?

1. A stronger dollar suppresses gold. The strengthening dollar has pressured dollar-denominated gold. The rebound of the dollar index on Monday was a direct catalyst for gold's drop.
2. Fear of inflation has become a negative factor. High oil prices translate directly into higher inflation, reducing the motivation for central banks to cut interest rates—historically, this suppresses gold prices.

This sounds counterintuitive, but the logic is clear: Rising oil prices → Uncontrolled inflation → The Fed dare not cut rates (may even raise rates) → Real interest rates rise → Gold loses its appeal.

RJO Futures Senior Market Strategist Bob Haberkorn pointed out that high oil prices translating into high inflation have reduced the motivation for central banks to cut rates. However, Haberkorn simultaneously maintains a target price of $6,000 per ounce, citing "what is happening globally" and that off-market funds are waiting to enter.

The Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday is crucial.

The market is waiting for this week’s Federal Reserve policy decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell on the direction of U.S. interest rates. If Powell hints that soaring oil prices may force the Fed to delay rate cuts or even raise rates, gold may further plunge to the $4,800 range.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin's Epic Breakthrough at $75,000, $2.1 Billion Net Inflow for ETFs in Three Weeks

Bitcoin has finally broken through.

On March 17, Bitcoin's price briefly surpassed $75,000.

This marks Bitcoin's first breakthrough of key resistance levels since late February, indicating that the crypto market has entered a new upward cycle.

Institutions and whales continue to buy, with a net inflow of $2.1 billion in three weeks.

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen sustained net inflows totaling $2.1 billion over the past three weeks. This is the first consecutive three-week net inflow for the ETF since October 2025, indicating that institutional investors are beginning to rebuild positions.

On-chain data shows that wallets holding 10-10,000 BTC have entered a hoarding mode, increasing their proportion of the total supply to 68.17%. Whales are actively accumulating to prepare for the next round of gains.

Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision: A catalyst for Bitcoin to break $80,000?

The Federal Reserve interest rate decision is scheduled to be announced on Wednesday, March 18, at 2 PM Eastern Time. Economists generally expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, maintaining a cautious stance due to persistent inflation driven by oil price shocks.

Although the expectation of unchanged rates historically suppresses the rise of risk assets, Bitcoin's current momentum and its status as "digital gold" suggest that breaching the psychological resistance level of $75,000 might trigger significant short squeezes, pushing the price towards $80,000.

Technical Analysis: A Golden Cross is About to Form, Shorts Are Trapped Above $75,000.

Bitcoin's price has already broken the 50-day simple moving average at $71,164, which is a key psychological and technical level.

The 20-day SMA is also nearing a bullish crossover with the 50-day SMA, which is a classic "golden cross" signal, typically indicating sustained upward momentum.

The Aroon indicator has also enhanced the bullish outlook, with Aroon Up at 100% and Aroon Down at 0%. This is a strong configuration indicating a robust emerging upward trend, showing that buyers are fully in control of the current price movement.

Shorts are trapped; a short squeeze is imminent.

Currently, there is a buildup of $4.34 billion in short positions above $75,000, with funding rates dropping to the most negative since August 2024, indicating traders are heavily betting on Bitcoin's decline.

If BTC breaks above $75,000, these shorts will be forced to cover, buying in to drive the price up, with almost no resistance between $75,000 and $80,000 since only 1% of Bitcoin's supply has bought in this price range.

Once the short squeeze begins, retail momentum will follow, and $100,000 will become a waypoint towards higher targets.

Today's Summary: The Market Torn Between the Nightmare of Oil Prices and the Crypto Frenzy

On March 17, the market appears extremely divided.

The core contradiction of the market is: why did Bitcoin break through historical resistance levels in the face of skyrocketing oil prices and plummeting gold?

This is the most puzzling phenomenon of March 2026. By traditional logic, rising oil prices → uncontrolled inflation → Fed hawkish → risk asset collapse. But Bitcoin not only didn’t collapse, it broke through $75,000.

The reasons may include three:

1. Bitcoin is becoming "digital gold 2.0." As physical gold comes under pressure from a stronger dollar and rising real interest rates, Bitcoin benefits from narratives of "de-dollarization" and panic over "fiat currency depreciation."
2. Institutional hoarding trend. ETF net inflows of $2.1 billion over three weeks and whale holding percentage at 68.17% indicate that smart money is bottom-fishing amid war panic.
3. The self-fulfilling prophecy of short squeezes. With $4.34 billion in shorts accumulated above $75,000, once breached, forced liquidations will drive explosive price increases.

Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision will be key. If Powell indicates that "the oil price shock may force the Fed to maintain high rates for a longer duration," Bitcoin could benefit from the narrative of "anti-inflation assets," surpassing $80,000; however, if Powell suggests "potential rate hikes to combat inflation," Bitcoin may also plunge back below $70,000.

The only certainty is: The market has completely abandoned the traditional risk/hedging binary framework. Bitcoin, gold, U.S. stocks, oil prices—all assets are operating on their own logic, and correlations among them have completely ceased to exist.