The biggest change in this cycle of 2024 is essentially that the Bitcoin inventory on exchanges has not increased with the rising price of $BTC. On the contrary, regardless of whether the BTC price is rising or falling, the inventory on exchanges has been decreasing, and there are three reasons for this situation:

First: Although the purchases of spot ETFs cannot be considered large, traditional American investors alone have bought 1,289,739 Bitcoins, and the global inventory of spot ETFs exceeds 1.3 million BTC.

Second: Trump's US strategic reserves might be hard for many friends to believe, but indeed the inventory and price reversal of BTC started from Trump's speech at the Bitcoin Consensus Conference. Since then, the inventory of BTC on exchanges has continuously decreased.

PS: Even after the approval of spot ETFs, the inventory of BTC on exchanges has always been increasing. Currently, there are nearly 620,000 BTC reserves in all countries with available statistics. The top three are:

1. United States 330,000

2. China 190,000

3. United Kingdom 61,000

Third: The increase in Bitcoin strategic reserves like $MSTR, and even some state governments in the US starting to reserve BTC, along with the effectiveness of FASB's ASU 2023-08 allowing BTC to be properly included on the balance sheets of public companies, has opened a window for public companies to purchase BTC. While this part is still not large, it can continue to increase.

PS2: Currently, the total reserves in this part exceed 1.2 million.

Therefore, from the actual situation, Bitcoin is being more significantly split from exchanges with support from political, economic, and policy aspects. The recently increasing BTC in the purely economic field has exceeded 2.2 million; this trend is unstoppable.

However, the total inventory on exchanges is still nearly 3 million Bitcoins, with the historical highest inventory being 3.458 million, which occurred on June 14, 2022. It has taken three and a half years to reduce by less than 500,000 BTC. Breaking below 1.5 million, even in a very optimistic scenario, achieving this by 2028 would already be good, and I even estimate that the inventory on exchanges falling below 2 million might not be seen until after 2028.

But if we extend this to 10 years later, the opportunities will be very large.

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