Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: The Last "Buy the Dip" before Powell

On Tuesday, U.S. stocks continued the rebound from the previous trading day. The S&P 500 index closed up 0.25% at 6,716.09 points, the Nasdaq index rose 0.47% to 22,479.53 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 46.85 points (0.1%) to 46,993.26 points.

This marks the last opportunity for the entire market to "bet" before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision — CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of the Fed maintaining the 3.50%-3.75% rate range on Wednesday is over 92%.

However, maintaining the interest rate is never the focus. The real critical moment will be at 2 PM ET on March 18 (2 AM Beijing Time on March 19), when the Federal Reserve releases its policy statement, followed by Powell's press conference 30 minutes later. The market will complete its repricing before 3 PM.

Aviation Stocks Lead: "Countertrend" amid Oil Price Nightmare.

The S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector rose 1% on the day, led by Expedia Group and Booking Holdings. Delta Air Lines and American Airlines provided strong revenue guidance, boosting airline stocks. This is an extremely unusual signal — oil prices rose again on Tuesday, with Brent crude up 3%, firmly above the $100 mark.

Soaring oil prices should have devastated airline stocks, but Delta and American Airlines told the market during their earnings calls that demand from both business and leisure travelers is accelerating, completely offsetting the rising cost of jet fuel.

Is the airline industry really finding new pricing power, or is the market putting on a final "bluff" before the Fed's decision? We'll find out Wednesday.

Tech Stocks Moderate Rebound, but Cracks Have Appeared.

Chip stocks contributed the main gains in the tech sector that day, but software stocks are experiencing a "AI doomsday" driven systemic collapse. Trade Desk plummeted about 7% on Tuesday after Publicis Groupe announced it would no longer recommend the ad tech company's demand-side platform to clients, citing "multiple violations of the master service agreement" discovered during an audit.

The logic behind the software stock collapse is very simple: AI either takes away their clients or their pricing power. Trade Desk is just the first domino to fall.

Historical Pattern: The Probability of Bitcoin Falling After FOMC Meetings is 87.5%.

In 2025, Bitcoin fell 7 out of 8 times after FOMC meetings. Even during Fed rate cut meetings, Bitcoin still fell. In January 2026, when the Fed maintained rates as expected, Bitcoin dropped from $90,400 to $83,383 within 48 hours.

The mechanism is simple: when the Fed announces its decision, traders have already positioned themselves. A 92% probability means that there can't be any "unexpected surprises." The announcement becomes a profit-taking window for early buyers and a forced liquidation trigger for overly leveraged longs.

Oil Prices: Back to the "Triple Digit" Club, War Enters Day 18

On Tuesday, oil prices resumed their rise, with the global benchmark Brent crude rising 3%, solidly above the $100 mark. On Tuesday, Brent crude futures traded between $100.75 and $103.21.

The U.S. and Israel's war with Iran has entered its 17th day, with no signs of ending. Over the weekend, the U.S. struck military facilities on Kharg Island in Iran — where almost all of Iran's oil is exported from. Meanwhile, Iran launched new attacks in the Persian Gulf region, disrupting transportation at key oil hubs in the UAE and causing flights to be grounded at Dubai Airport.

Monday's "False Rebound": Tankers Safely Pass Hormuz, Market Rejoices.

On Monday, oil prices plummeted, with WTI falling $5.21 (-5.28%), as the market bet that tankers could soon pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Over the weekend, several tankers safely traversed the Strait of Hormuz, igniting hopes that this waterway might reopen soon. India is trying to get six more ships through the strait, while other countries are negotiating with Iran through back channels to ensure the safe passage of their vessels.

But Tuesday's oil price rise proves that the market no longer believes in the "Hormuz reopening" fairy tale.

Cryptocurrency: Powell's "Schrodinger's Cat"

On Tuesday (March 17), the global cryptocurrency market cap reached $2.65 trillion, rising 3.6% in 24 hours, with a total trading volume of $154 billion. Bitcoin's market share stands at 56.9%, while Ethereum is at 10.7%.

Bitcoin's price reached $75,925, a 4.58% increase in 24 hours, with a trading volume of $57.58 billion and a market cap of $1.51 trillion. Ethereum's price is $2,363.22, up 8.45%, with a trading volume of $40.2 billion.

However, these numbers will be meaningless after 2:30 PM ET on March 18.

Three Scenarios, Three Fates.

Hawkish Hold (dot plot shows no rate cuts in 2026): Bitcoin could drop 8-12% within a week, possibly retesting the $65,000 support level. Altcoins may drop even more.

Neutral Hold (dot plot shows one rate cut, cautious wording): Bitcoin may experience a typical "sell the news" drop of 3-5% within 48 hours post-announcement, before recovering.

Dovish Hold (dot plot moves two rate cuts to 2026): This is the dream scenario for bulls, but the probability is lower than the baseline scenario.

Bitcoin's market share is currently close to 59%. Historically, a market share above 60% indicates that capital is concentrated in Bitcoin, and altcoin rotation has not truly begun. A dovish Fed signal could serve as a catalyst for initiating this rotation, pushing the market share down while altcoin prices rise disproportionately.

Fear and Greed Index: 28 (Fear). Market sentiment improved from extreme fear (23) on March 16 to fear (28) on March 17, indicating a reduction in short-term panic and growing investor confidence.

But the question is: Can this confidence hold through Powell's press conference?

U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF: Capital Inflows are the Real "Vote."

Farside Investors' ETF capital flow data will provide the clearest reading of institutional reactions on March 18 and 19. If single-day outflows exceed $200 million within 24 hours after Powell's press conference, this would indicate that institutions are reducing risk in response to further macro uncertainty. If inflows exceed $300 million, it would suggest that dovish interpretations are prevailing.

Today's Summary: March 18 is Not the End, but the Beginning

Tuesday's market resembled a defendant holding its breath, waiting for a verdict. U.S. stocks rose moderately, oil prices returned to triple digits, and cryptocurrencies rebounded strongly — but all of this was merely "ritualistic action" before Powell's press conference.

At 2 PM ET on March 18, the Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision. At 2:30 PM, Powell will hold his press conference. For the crypto market, the stakes go far beyond a simple central bank routine. The next moves of the dollar, bond yields, and risk appetite will be determined in minutes.

Technically, the interest rate decision remains central. However, in practice, the market is primarily focused on what Powell says after the announcement. The Fed will not only disclose its monetary choices but also its economic forecasts. This is where investors will look for signals on inflation, growth, and the potential timeline for rate cuts in 2026.

Historical Lesson: Bitcoin fell 7 out of 8 times after FOMC meetings in 2025, including meetings where the Fed actually cut rates.

The question the market must answer on March 18 is not "What will the Fed do?" (that's already determined), but rather "How will Powell define 'what's next'?":

Is it a cautious "We need more data; it's too early to assess the impact of the Iranian shock"?

Or is it vague, "Inflation risks and growth uncertainties coexist; we are watching and waiting"?

Or could it be some unexpected hawkish or dovish signal that completely rewrites market expectations for the second half of 2026?

The answer will be revealed at 2:30 AM Beijing Time on March 19. Until then, all fluctuations are just "Schrodinger's cat," both dead and alive, waiting for the observer to open the box.