Author: Zhou, ChainCatcher

It is reported that Coinbase is negotiating investment and cooperation agreements with Bybit, and the market expects Bybit’s valuation may be close to that of OKX.

Before this, ICE officially acquired shares in OKX with a valuation of about 25 billion US dollars, and within a month, two Chinese exchanges have sat down at the negotiating table with US regulatory agencies.

Currently, Binance, OKX, and Bybit are the leaders in global crypto trading volume. They have rapidly risen from the era when regulation was not yet formed, establishing the world’s largest crypto derivatives market from scratch.

Now, these names are appearing in another context, being invested in, connected, and incorporated into a larger system.

Chinese Exchanges, Why Are They Restless?

CoinGecko data shows that in 2025, Binance alone will account for nearly 40% of global crypto spot trading volume, followed by Bybit in second place.

The derivatives market is even more of a home ground for Chinese exchanges. CoinGlass annual report shows that of the global 85.7 trillion US dollars in derivative trading volume, Binance, OKX, Bybit, and Bitget together account for over 60%.

In contrast, the largest compliant exchange in the United States, Coinbase, has a market share of only just over 1% in the global spot market and its presence in the derivatives market is extremely limited, with annual revenue reaching 7.2 billion US dollars in 2025.

It is evident that the exchanges dominating crypto trading volume make a lot of money.

So, why would such a profitable business give away its equity?

The issue may lie in the ceiling of the offshore model, which has already been reached.

For the past decade, the core growth engine of Chinese exchanges has been retail derivatives—high leverage, high frequency, and high fees, and they have indeed taken this market to the extreme.

However, the pool of retail users is limited, the multiples of leverage that can be added are limited, and the number of retail investors willing to take risks on offshore platforms is decreasing after regulatory tightening.

As the existing market shrinks, where do the increments come from? The answer is institutions.

Pension funds, sovereign funds, family offices; the scale of this money is not comparable to retail users. These funds have one common premise: they need to flow into platforms with compliant identities.

Without a US license, no regulatory framework, and no auditable custodian system, even if this money wants to come in, compliance departments will not allow it.

Meanwhile, tightening regulations are not only coming from the United States. The EU's MiCAR is fully implemented, jurisdictions in the Middle East are establishing licensing systems one after another, and regulatory frameworks in Southeast Asia are also tightening. The offshore survival space is systematically shrinking worldwide.

Thus, the entire ecosystem of Chinese offshore exchanges faces the same reality; growth cannot stop, competition is intensifying, and they need to change their tires to drive new growth.

OKX spent 500 million US dollars to settle with the US Department of Justice, spent years obtaining licenses in 41 states, and then introduced management from a traditional financial background to rebuild the compliance system.

It is reported that ICE has obtained a board seat at OKX, which is estimated at a valuation of 25 billion US dollars, meaning this investment accounts for at least 5% of OKX, corresponding to an amount of no less than 1.25 billion US dollars. In return, OKX will provide ICE with real-time cryptocurrency price data and plans to allow users to directly trade tokenized stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange in the second half of 2026.

This means that products from the New York Stock Exchange will reach global investors through OKX, while OKX will leverage ICE’s traditional financial backing to re-enter the US market. This is not just a financial investment, but a real business binding between two systems.

OKX's route is too expensive and too slow. If Bybit ultimately chooses to bring in Coinbase, it essentially means entering through a partner that has already established a compliance system, gaining the backing of a federal license, the credibility of a listed company, and pathways to banking cooperation, at the cost of giving up partial equity. This accounts math is favorable.

It is worth mentioning that in February 2025, Bybit faced the largest cryptocurrency theft in history, with approximately 1.5 billion US dollars in Ethereum stolen, with the attackers identified as being related to North Korea's Lazarus Group. From this perspective, if Bybit brings in Coinbase at this time, it is also a signal to rebuild institutional investor confidence.

However, the scale of this deal should be carefully considered. Coinbase currently has a market value of approximately 55 billion US dollars on the US stock market, while the market expects Bybit’s valuation to be comparable to OKX, around 25 billion US dollars, which is nearly half of Coinbase’s own market value.

This ratio determines the boundaries of cooperation. Coinbase is unlikely to make a large acquisition, and a more reasonable conjecture is a minority equity stake along with a cooperation agreement, allowing both parties to get what they need without touching control rights.

Conclusion

The cryptocurrency industry has proven one thing over the past decade: decentralization is a technical proposition. Liquidity, rules, and pricing power have always been centralized.

Chinese exchanges, with strong execution capabilities and risk tolerance, have built the world's largest crypto market on the edge of the rules.

But when this market becomes large enough and real enough to require access to institutional funds and to step into the mainstream view, they find themselves lacking one thing, which is the rules themselves.

Thus, they trade users for licenses, use liquidity for endorsements, and exchange the global networks built over the years for an entry ticket from others.

It can only be said that everyone has made a rational choice.

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