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You can follow the public account Gu Jingci, focusing on mainstream coin guidance and layout. At two a.m., the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is coming, followed by Powell's monetary policy press conference at two-thirty, which will directly lead the new trend in the crypto circle. First, the interest rate decision in the early hours will generally maintain the interest rate at 3.5-3.75, with a probability of rate cuts at 0, which is the consensus of everyone currently. The key to pay attention to is the core of the dot plot: in December last year, the dot plot indicated one rate cut in 2026, and this time the critical point of the decision and press conference is whether to shift from one rate cut to two or remain at zero. If zero rate cuts are confirmed, and Powell's speech leans hawkish, emphasizing inflation stickiness, data dependence, and not rushing to cut rates. Raising inflation expectations and lowering GDP growth, reinforcing the high interest rates for a longer time would lead to a bearish outlook, mainly negative. If the dovish scenario anticipates multiple or earlier rate cuts, then the US dollar and US Treasury yields will drop, capital will flow back in, risk appetite will increase, and the crypto market will continue to surge.

The dot plot indicates zero rate cuts = increasing expectations of liquidity tightening, leading to a stronger dollar and higher US Treasury yields. In a high interest rate environment, funds prefer the US dollar and US Treasury bonds more, and the influx of funds in the crypto market is being squeezed. The market is sensitive to delayed pricing of rate cuts, buying expectations and selling facts, making it prone to initial declines followed by fluctuations. If only maintaining one rate cut or more cuts, it would be dovish, with the negative effect landing, leading to a slight rebound or a significant continuing rebound followed by fluctuations. Pay attention to Powell's key words during the early morning speech: inflation stickiness and data dependence indicate a hawkish stance; if the conditions for rate cuts mature, it indicates a dovish stance.

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