Translated by: Plain Language Blockchain

Bitcoin has shown strong performance this week,with an increase of nearly 10%,currently showing an increase of about 9.38%.This trend reflects a rebound in the market following recent uncertainties.

As the initial impacts of geopolitical tensions begin to ease,some investors are reassessing Bitcoin's role in the current environment.Periods of conflict typically lead to increased government spending,which intensifiesinflation.

Against this backdrop,the supply of fixed assets tends to become increasingly attractive. Bitcoin's supply cap of 21 million coins means it will not inflate due to currency depreciation like traditional money, which is becoming more appealing for investors seekinglong-term currency preservation.

Figure 1: BTC has shown an upward trend over the past week.

From a technical perspective, BTC is attemptingto break through the range it has consolidated in for the past six weeks. If it succeeds in breaking out, it could open up space close to $80,000. If it fails to break through, there is still the risk of testing the 200-week moving average and the **Realized Price**, which have not been impacted in this bear market.

Figure 2: Current technical outlook.

Therefore, if the price can make a substantial breakout,the upward target location would be around $80,000 (which is the bottom of the range in the fourth quarter of 2025). On the downside,the 200-week moving average is at $59,000,and the Realized Price is at $54,500.

Matt Hougan: The Logic and Barriers to $1 Million

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes that many Bitcoin valuation models overlook a key assumption: they treat the "store of value" market as static. History shows thatas economic pressures rise, the total pool of assets aimed at wealth preservation tends to expand.

Concerns aboutdebt, ongoing monetary expansion, andgeopolitical instability are driving investors toward assets intended for value preservation. Traditionally,gold has dominated this role; however, Bitcoin is increasingly becoming part of this focal discussion.

Figure 3: Global M2 money supply and BTC.

A major structural driving factor is theexpansion of global liquidity. As central banks increase M2 money supply, more funds will seek scarce assets that can maintain their value over time.Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million coins fundamentally distinguishes it from base currencies that can expand under stimulus policies. Hu pointed out that if global liquidity continues to increase, and if Bitcoin captures a larger portion of the value storage market, currently a price of $1 million in the long term is reasonable.

However, this path is not without its obstacles.

Figure 4: Gold vs Bitcoin prices.

Recent market performance highlights the competition. Over the past few months,gold has outperformed Bitcoin, indicating that in times of extreme uncertainty, investors still prefer traditional safe-haven tools.

Figure 5: Largest asset classes globally.

Additionally,the gap between Bitcoin and major asset classes is still narrowing. Gold's market capitalization still far exceeds that of Bitcoin, which means cryptocurrencies need tochallenge the significant contribution of global wealth in order to approach a valuation of $1 million.

Higher interest rates, improving economic stability, or adoption rates may delay this transition. But Hougan does note that if monetary expansion continues and Bitcoin gains wider institutional recognition, itslong-term upside potential remains significant.

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