Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: Struggling on the Edge of Annual Lows

On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 204 points, a decrease of 0.44%, closing at 46,021 points. The decline was led by Boeing (-2.28%), McDonald's (-1.95%), and 3M (-1.63%). Among stocks that rose, Chevron (+1.39%), Cisco Systems (+1.15%), and Goldman Sachs (+0.58%) performed the best.

U.S. stock indices reduced most of their intraday losses on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ultimately down only 0.2%, while the Dow fell by 0.3%, rebounding from a four-month low. After Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel was assisting the United States in reopening the crucial Strait of Hormuz, U.S. crude oil retreated to around $94 per barrel, and volatility across asset classes eased.

It was a "hair-raising" trading day. These developments alleviated earlier concerns about stagflation as investors weighed comments from U.S. President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin regarding diplomatic efforts to restore global energy supply chains.

The technical aspect has completely broken.

The Nasdaq Composite Index barely recovered above its 200-day moving average earlier this week, having previously fallen below that critical level for the first time since May, but dipped again on Wednesday to 22,223 points, closing at 22,152.42 points. The S&P 500 also fell below its 200-day moving average for the first time since May, closing at 6,624 points, just a few points above that level. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a new annual low.

Losses accelerated at the close, indicating that both indices would suffer further losses if trading had not ended for the day. This laid the groundwork for Thursday’s weak technical situation. Closing below the 200-day moving average for several consecutive days could trigger new technical sell-offs. The S&P 500's November low close of 6,538 may be an area to watch, with 6,500 points below there.

Valuations remain elevated, and companies are beginning to issue profit warnings.

The recent decline has brought the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 down to 20.9, slightly below the peak of 22 earlier this year, but still above the five-year average of 20.

In a warning signal, Honeywell International (HON) saw its stock price drop on Tuesday, after the company warned that the war might harm first-quarter revenue. The conflict has led to soaring energy prices, tightened raw material supplies, and raised doubts about critical trade routes, putting pressure on costs and profit margins across sectors.

Gold/Silver: The "Failure of Safe Haven Assets"

On Thursday, the global markets witnessed an incredibly counterintuitive scene: gold plummeted $322 in a single day.

The price of gold fell by $322 to $4,569, and Bitcoin dropped below $70,000. Due to the Iranian conflict and rising inflation, safe-haven assets like gold and silver are plummeting significantly.

Despite the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East— including strikes on critical energy infrastructure—both gold (XAU/USD) and Bitcoin (BTC/USD) are declining. Traditionally, these assets are considered the primary "disaster hedge" for the world, but they are giving way under a broader market sell-off following the Fed's hawkish stance on Wednesday.

This is not a sign that the "safe-haven narrative is dead," but rather the textbook case of liquidity squeeze.

This "double drop" is not a signal that the safe-haven narrative is dead. On the contrary, it is a textbook example of a liquidity squeeze driven by a recovering dollar and rising bond yields. As oil prices soared above $110 per barrel, the market is pricing in "sticky" inflation, forcing the Fed to maintain high rates, which historically creates temporary resistance for non-yielding assets like gold and high beta assets like Bitcoin.

The main reason for gold and Bitcoin's decline today is the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates at 3.5%-3.75%, while hinting at fewer rate cuts for the remainder of 2026. This strengthened the Dollar Index (DXY), making dollar-denominated assets more expensive.

Additionally, investors are selling their "winning" positions in gold and Bitcoin to cover margin calls from the crashing stock and energy markets.

Gold's technical level: $4,840-$4,750 is the "buy-zone."

After briefly flirting with the psychological resistance at $5,000 earlier this week, gold has entered a sharp adjustment phase. On the morning of March 19, spot gold slid into the $4,800 region, marking its most significant consecutive losses in over a year.

Major support: $4,840-$4,750. This area represents the historical "buying the dip" zone for various central banks. Major resistance: $5,000. Recapturing this level is critical for restoring the bullish trend.

Oil Prices: False Hopes of a "Half-Open" Strait of Hormuz

U.S. crude oil retreated to around $94 a barrel after Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel was assisting the United States in reopening the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

However, the market does not truly believe this "good news." With no signs of de-escalation in the U.S.-Iran war, oil prices surged once again.

Geopolitical tensions related to Iran and concerns about the Strait of Hormuz are affecting global financial markets, driving up oil prices while applying pressure on gold and Bitcoin.

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most vital maritime routes for global energy trade. A significant portion of world oil transportation passes through this narrow channel, making it highly sensitive to geopolitical developments. Any disruption or perceived threat to this route generally leads to an immediate market reaction in energy markets. Increased tensions have led to heightened concerns over potential supply disruptions, pushing crude oil prices higher.

Rising oil prices can influence broader economic conditions through inflationary pressures, affecting central bank policies and financial market stability.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Drops Below 70,000, ETFs Can't Save It

Bitcoin has dropped below $70,000.

This is an extension of the "sell the news" reaction following the FOMC decision, but the drop on Thursday was even more severe, as all risk assets faced a liquidity squeeze.

Bitcoin showed relative resilience compared to the broader "risk asset" sectors, but it could not maintain its advance towards $76,000. On Thursday, BTC fell below $71,000, tracking the general weakness in global liquidity.

Interestingly, the correlation between gold and Bitcoin in 2026 has changed. According to the latest data from Investing.com, Bitcoin increasingly behaves like a "global liquidity sponge." It thrives when funds are cheap. With the Fed's hawkish tone, Bitcoin faces temporary outflows. However, institutional demand via Bitcoin ETFs remains a structural bottom, preventing a collapse below $66,000.

Technical aspect: 74,434-76,159 is key resistance.

Bitcoin has rebounded over 14.5% from monthly lows, rising for eight consecutive days, and is now testing the key resistance of 74,434-76,159—an area defined by the 2025 low, the 100% extension of February's rise, and the low close of 2025.

Initial support is at the March 2026 low close and low weekly close (LDC/LWC) of 70,283/531, supported by the monthly open target of 66,982. Falling below this level would threaten the broader downtrend's restoration, with subsequent support targets seen at the annual low close of 62,795 and the 61.8% retracement of the 2022 rise at 57,885.

Today's Summary: When Liquidity is Exhausted, There are No Real Safe-Haven Assets

On March 20, the markets gave everyone a brutal lesson: when liquidity truly dries up, no asset escapes unscathed.

Gold plummeted $322 in a single day, a drop of over 6%. Bitcoin fell below $70,000. Silver, crude oil, stocks—almost all assets are declining.

According to economist EJ Antoni, quoted in the Financial Times, "I don't think this is an economy that can withstand $100 per barrel oil; it simply can't."

As the war raises concerns about energy shocks, it easily adds inflationary pressures to economies worldwide, and central banks are closely monitoring developments, with the Fed citing the uncertain impact of the war. The Bank of Japan also maintained interest rates, pointing to rising inflation risks.

Why did gold and Bitcoin fall simultaneously?

Gold is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset during uncertain times. However, recent market behavior shows declining gold prices. Rising oil prices lead to inflation concerns... these factors can lower the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold in the short term.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies also experienced downward pressure during the same period. Market data indicates that digital assets continue to align with broader risk assets during geopolitical uncertainty… the cryptocurrency market remains sensitive to global macroeconomic developments, especially those affecting investor risk preferences.

The real drivers: a strong dollar + rising real rates.

Investors are selling their "winning" positions in gold and Bitcoin to cover margin calls from the crashing stock and energy markets.

This is the essence of a liquidity crisis: people sell what they can sell, rather than what they want to sell. Gold and Bitcoin are falling not because they are "no longer safe-haven assets," but because they are the only remaining liquid assets that can be sold.

The tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are leading to rising oil prices and increased market uncertainty. In this environment, gold and Bitcoin decline, reflecting the impacts of inflation expectations, interest rate dynamics, and broader risk sentiment in global markets.

March 20 tells us: when oil prices soar to $110, inflation spirals out of control, the Fed refuses to cut rates, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury stands above 4.2%—no asset is safe.

The only safe-haven asset is cash. But even cash is burning in inflation.

This is March 20, 2026, a day when all "safe-haven assets" collapsed simultaneously, a day when liquidity exhaustion exposed the truth of the market.