Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
Macroeconomic Market
The conflict between the US and Iran has entered its fourth week, with Trump delivering a 48-hour ultimatum on Sunday Beijing time, demanding Iran open the Strait of Hormuz, or else its power generation facilities will be destroyed. Based on the posting time, the final deadline is Tuesday morning at 7:44 AM Beijing time. In the face of extreme pressure, Iran has issued six ceasefire conditions and threatened to completely close the strait if attacked, targeting all U.S. and Israeli energy and information infrastructure in the Middle East.
The actual oil flow in the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted by 97% to just 600,000 barrels per day. Goldman Sachs' commodity team has warned that the current supply gap of 17.6 million barrels per day is 18 times the peak of Russian supply disruptions in 2022. If the blockade continues, oil prices are likely to surpass the historic high of 2008.
The Asia-Pacific stock market was the first to be severely hit. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index fell by as much as 3%. Asian stocks generally suffered significant losses, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 5% to below 51,000 points, while the KOSPI index in South Korea fell 6% to around 5,400. The won to dollar exchange rate hit its lowest level since 2009.
Gold fell to around 4,300 dollars today, erasing all gains made this year, and is down over 20% from the historical high in January. Regarding the drastic drop in precious metals, Natixis analyst Bernard Dahdah warned that if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East lead to damage to energy facilities and force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, gold prices may further drop to 4,000 dollars an ounce. Meanwhile, Ole Hansen, strategy director at Saxo Bank, believes that gold bulls need to experience a "heartbreak" and a washout before market enthusiasm can be reignited.
Notably, China's largest gold producer Zijin Mining announced that it will acquire and subscribe for shares in Chifeng Gold through its wholly-owned subsidiary Zijin Gold at a premium, spending more than 18.258 billion yuan to obtain a 25.85% stake and absolute control. With the 14-day RSI dropping below the oversold range of 30, futures researcher Duan Endian and Capital.com analyst Kyle Rodda both bet on a technical rebound in the short term, believing that the foundational geopolitical hedging remains solid, with limited downside potential. Additionally, large speculators such as hedge funds have increased their net long positions in gold to a seven-week high against the trend.
Bitcoin Market
In response to Trump's "48-hour ultimatum" towards Iran, bitcoin retraced all its previous gains over the weekend, nearly falling below the monthly opening price of 66,973 dollars. Notably, CME futures have a gap around 70,100 dollars, with analysts generally believing that if there is a rejection around the 70,000 dollars mark, bitcoin will continue to decline. It is important to note that the bitcoin mining industry is in trouble, with the current production cost per bitcoin rising to 88,000 dollars, far above the current market price of 68,500 dollars, causing miners to incur a loss of approximately 19,500 dollars for each block mined.
Bearish Perspective
Core logic: Macroeconomic pressures are intensifying, and the positive correlation between bitcoin and U.S. stocks indicates systemic risk. The technical charts repeatedly confirming a downward trend suggest that once key support is broken, the price will directly target the 50,000 dollar range.
Tony Severino: The positive correlation of bitcoin with the S&P 500 index is a dangerous signal; historically, this phenomenon often precedes a stock market crash and drags bitcoin into the abyss, with a potential drop of up to 50% (targeting around 34,350 dollars).
KillaXBT: The weekly close looks extremely poor; bulls have been completely destroyed. If there is a rejection around 70K, this will confirm a strong bearish trend at lower time frames. Once key support at 64.7K is broken, the price will inevitably fall below 60K.
TedPillows: Bitcoin continues to form lower highs and lower lows, and a plunge to the 50,000 dollar level is just a matter of time.
Rekt Capital: Bitcoin is retesting the 200-week EMA, and the old historical highs from 2021 and 2024 are currently transforming into new resistance levels. A monthly close below these levels lays the foundation for a bearish retest.
Peak: The current price structure is showing a clear bearish pattern, and a decline towards the 50K region is no longer fanciful.
Bullish Perspective
Core logic: Extreme panic in geopolitics often marks historic bottoms for bitcoin. As low-leverage bulls are liquidated, the liquidity of shorts above has become a price magnet, and a short squeeze rebound is expected in the short term.
KillaXBT: Geopolitical crises and market capitulation are precisely the moments when bitcoin can shine. While 90% of people panic and sell, the smart 10% buy in during conflicts; the current macro panic is an excellent opportunity for bitcoin to find a bottom.
Sykodelic: The current price action is very similar to the 2022 bottom. Although market sentiment is exceedingly pessimistic, underlying indicators such as funding rates and premiums are performing strongly, and the market often makes unexpected reversals when most people are bearish.
LP: The clusters of long liquidations below have been progressively cleared, while a substantial amount of short liquidation is building above 72K to 77K. Before probing down to 60K, the price is very likely to first move upwards to exhaust those shorts.
SuperBro: Bitcoin hitting 67.3K has cleared most of the long leverage; liquidity is now concentrated above, and with the CME gap above, this week the market is prepared for a massive upward short squeeze.
CrediBULL Crypto: Currently, a bottom construct is taking place in the large-scale consolidation area of 50K-70K. The 72K-75K range is a crucial decision zone, where a relief rebound in the short term is the most logical outcome.
Anthony Scaramucci (SkyBridge Capital): The current bear market is caused by long-term holders selling off at the psychological barrier of 100,000 dollars; the four-year cycle theory is still valid, and a new round of bull market is expected to restart in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Market Dynamics
Over the weekend, the stablecoin protocol Resolv was exploited by attackers due to an off-chain permission vulnerability, illegally minting 80 million USR with only 200,000 USDC, and quickly selling it for Ethereum, causing the price of USR to crash by 88%. Currently, Resolv has destroyed 9 million illegal tokens and suspended contracts, confirming actual losses of about 500,000 dollars and plans to allow whitelisted users to redeem USR before the incident starting from March 23.
Furthermore, the MEME token SIREN saw a surge over the weekend, with a liquidation of 14.91 million dollars in the past 24 hours. On-chain analyst Yu Jin disclosed that the SIREN token exhibits extremely severe controlled by large holders. The major holder controls up to 88.5% of the tokens (worth 1.44 billion dollars), and among the top 54 holding addresses, 52 belong to this holder. By controlling spot prices in conjunction with contract liquidations, the token has been forcefully elevated 30 times within a month and a half. Currently, this holder is suspected to be related to DWF Labs.
Key Data (as of March 23, 13:00 HKT)
(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)
Bitcoin ETF: Net inflow of 95.18 million dollars last week, achieving net inflow for four consecutive weeks
Ethereum ETF: Net outflow of 59.94 million dollars last week
XRP ETF: Net inflow of 640,000 dollars last week
SOL ETF: Net inflow of 21.1 million dollars last week
Fear and Greed Index: 11 (Extreme Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: TRX, XRP, BTC, ETH, BARD
Sector Gains and Losses: The crypto market experienced a general decline, with only the AI and Meme sectors rising
In the last 24 hours, 135,019 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 252 million dollars, where BTC liquidated 78.56 million dollars, ETH liquidated 50.25 million dollars, and SIREN liquidated 14.91 million dollars.
Today's Outlook
Binance will launch PAYPUSDT U perpetual contract on March 23
G7 foreign ministers will meet in Paris from March 24 to 25 to discuss ending the Iran war
SOON will unlock about 21.88 million tokens on March 23, worth approximately 2.8 million dollars
Nillion will unlock about 114.4 million tokens on March 24, worth approximately 5.3 million dollars
SOSO will unlock about 13.33 million tokens on March 24, worth approximately 5.4 million dollars
MON will unlock about 170 million tokens on March 24, worth approximately 3.6 million dollars
Today's top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies: Siren up 161%, River up 11.2%, MemeCore up 8.1%, Kite up 6.6%, Monero up 4.4%.
Hot News
The US CFTC refines pilot rules for crypto collateral: BTC/ETH capital adequacy ratio 20%
Analyst: Tokens controlled by the SIREN major holder amount to 88.5%; the controller may be DWF Labs
Sky Union opens 20x leveraged long positions in gold and gradually closes its SP500 short positions
Boyaa Interactive plans to spend no more than 70 million dollars to purchase cryptocurrencies
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
