Everyone is asking the wrong question. The question is not "Will I be unemployed?" but: Where do the unemployed go?

AI does not replace people; it replaces those parts of people that can already be standardized, copied, and automated.

Think about it, humans originally evolved from monkeys.

Stone tools, writing, gunpowder, steam engines, electricity, computers. Every tool revolution has devalued a batch of old skills, caused a batch of old positions to disappear, and led to the collapse of a batch of old orders. Humanity did not disappear. Humanity restructured.

AI follows the same pattern, but runs faster.

China experienced a larger wave of layoffs 30 years ago

Too many white-collar jobs are essentially about transferring information, applying rules, and partial optimization. Once the model is smart enough, these positions will definitely be repriced. This is not the end, but a clearance.

Thirty years ago, China went through a more intense version of this. State-owned enterprise reform led to massive layoffs. At the time, it seemed like the end for tens of millions of that generation. Looking back, it was not people that disappeared, but old positions. The new private economy, new companies, and new positions all grew out of that break. Fifteen years ago, a large proportion of China's listed companies were actually inherited assets from state-owned enterprise reforms.

Engineers will be the first to be impacted, but will also be the first to recover

They understand abstraction best, understand systems best, and are closest to new productivity. When engineers are laid off, it usually indicates that the skills they previously offered have matured enough to be packaged and automated. This does not negate their value; it proves the maturity of their previous output.

However, these individuals, like the laid-off workers from state-owned enterprises 30 years ago, happen to be the smartest people of this era. Once these people enter the free market, the creativity they bring will be immeasurable.

But most people overlook a more important point: AI does not just cut jobs; it is rewriting the form of companies.

Most companies do not need so many talents due to problems. Rather, the costs of communication, coordination, and execution are too high, so they have to continually add people, layers, and processes.

AI is turning these organizational costs into software.

Companies will be smaller. Tasks that used to require 50 people will now be done by 5. Tasks that previously required a team can now be done by a strong individual with the right tools.

The revenge of creators

In the past, the game rewarded those good at managing large teams, coordinating at different levels, and expanding organizations. Hence, we saw cases where HR became C-level or even CEO. Managing people became more critical than doing business; many of the best creators did not fail due to judgment, products, or technology, but rather because they could not manage organizations that increasingly resembled bureaucratic machines.

AI has weakened this shortcoming. In the next cycle, more small and robust companies will emerge. More individuals who "are not good at management but excel in creation" will be repriced. They did not lose to the market before; they lost to the organization. With AI lightening the organization, these people can finally trade directly with the world.

The real question is not unemployment, but how do you define yourself

After the old positions disappear, will you be someone waiting for the system to take you in, or someone who uses new tools to reorganize production?

AI will not average out everyone. It accelerates differentiation. Some will lose their jobs, some will lose their illusions, and some will complete a leap through this reorganization.

My judgment:

AI is not cutting off a group of people, but entire generations' belief in stable career paths. Those who are first laid off will not disappear. Some will be the first to reorganize themselves, transforming from employees of the old system into creators of the next economic wave.

In every productivity revolution, those eliminated are not the people, but those who refuse to rewrite themselves.

Those who first accept reality and begin to create a new world will prevail.