Trading Moment: Expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire lead to market rebound, BTC and ETH approach resistance levels of 72,000 and 2,200 respectively.

Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macroeconomics

After hours in the US stock market, the United States proposed a "15-point condition" for a one-month ceasefire plan and plans to mobilize 3,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to apply pressure. WTI crude oil briefly broke $93 yesterday, then plummeted more than 6% due to expectations of peace talks, falling below $88; Brent crude oil fell more than 6% during the day. Matt Maley from Miller Tabak pointed out that the key issue is whether the Strait of Hormuz can be restored to smooth traffic, as mere verbal commitments are insufficient to stabilize the market.

As Trump hinted that the US and Iran "may be quite close to reaching an agreement," global risk assets took a breather. US stock index futures rebounded across the board, with S&P 500 futures up 0.7%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.8%, and Dow Jones futures up 0.7%. The Asia-Pacific stock market surged, with the Nikkei 225 index soaring more than 3% to 53,836.94 points and the Korean KOSPI index rising more than 3% to 5,722.99 points. The A-share market experienced a volatile rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index climbing more than 1% back above 3,900 points, with hundreds of stocks hitting the daily limit for two consecutive days.

The precious metals market saw a deep V-shaped rebound, with spot gold rebounding 2% after significant previous adjustments; spot silver soared 3.88%. At the same time, concerns about stagflation intensified, with the US Treasury market facing a wave of sell-offs, as the 5-year yield rose to a nine-month high of 4.10%, while the 2-year and 30-year yields rose by 6 and 2 basis points, respectively.

AI Trends

Under the backdrop of macroeconomic pressures and intensified industry competition, tech giants performed poorly. On Tuesday, the seven tech giants collectively underperformed the 493 constituent stocks of the S&P, with large tech stocks nearly erasing their gains for the year. Reports that Amazon AWS is developing AI tools for functions such as sales automation triggered panic in the software sector, causing the software ETF (IGV) to plummet 4%, with year-to-date losses expanding to 23%, marking a new low since February.

In terms of individual stocks, Oracle fell over 50% from its September high, Salesforce dropped over 6.5%, ServiceNow fell nearly 6%, and Microsoft declined nearly 3%. In the past six weeks, several tech giants, including Google, Meta, and IBM, have seen declines of over 10%, raising concerns about the profitability and high valuations of the AI sector.

Bitcoin Market

Bitcoin has shown some resilience under the influence of macro geopolitical conditions, quickly rebounding after a brief drop, currently fluctuating around $71,000. Panic sentiment in the options market has eased, with implied volatility in the medium to short term dropping over 5% from its peak, and the Skew indicator rebounding sharply, with many put options established during the crisis being closed. This Friday will see the quarterly options expiration, and $75,000 remains an important resistance level. In terms of capital flows, the weekend transfer volume for stablecoins surged to a historic high of $440 billion, with USDC at $368 billion and USDT at $72 billion, indicating that investors prefer to convert to cash buffers. Meanwhile, Binance's monthly spot trading volume dropped to $52 billion, a new low for the year. Most analysts in the market currently believe that $72,000 to $74,000 is a key resistance range, and failure to reclaim recent highs may lead to a drop below $68,000, or even down to $42,000.

Bearish View

The core logic of the bearish camp lies in technical breakdown risks and high-level liquidity hunting. They believe that the current rebound is merely a continuation within a downtrend, and macro pressures could plunge prices into an abyss at any time.

Rekt Capital points out that the $68,300 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) is neither a reliable support nor resistance, and prices may hover here before finally falling into a macro downtrend.
Killa analysis indicates that Bitcoin faces resistance in the $71.4K area, and if it fails to reclaim that previous high, prices are very likely to drop back below $68K, with Monday's increase being merely a continuation of the last high before the drop.
Crypto Seth believes that if the price touches $85K, there will be $10.5 billion in short liquidations, while dropping to $59K could lead to $5.2 billion in long liquidations, indicating extremely high market volatility risk.
Crypto father Michael Terpin warns investors that the current market has not yet bottomed out, predicting that Bitcoin prices could fall to $42,000 or even lower, and mainstream media pessimism is the best buying signal.

Bullish View

The bullish camp firmly believes that the bottom has been identified, and continuous inflows of institutional funds and the geopolitical risk aversion attribute will drive Bitcoin into a new super cycle.

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani clearly states, "The bottom has been established and is moving upwards," pointing out that ETF net outflows have reversed (spot ETF holdings account for 6.1% of total supply, MicroStrategy holdings account for 3.6%), maintaining the target price of $150,000 by the end of 2026.
Michaël van de Poppe emphasizes that since the February crash, Bitcoin has continued to create higher lows, and as long as it holds key support, it is expected to reach $77K to $80K.
LP points out that the low-leverage liquidation cluster in the $72K to $73K area is creating a "magnet" effect, where prices typically clear this liquidity before significant expansion.
Astronomer states that the market is progressing as planned, with internal corrections basically complete, and the next target is aimed directly at the $71.9K to $72K area.
Castillo Trading still looks forward to seeing Bitcoin make a push towards $74,000.
sykodelic decisively went long at $69,900, believing that prices are continuously creating higher highs and lows, with the OBV indicator remaining strong, targeting $72K to $74K.

Ethereum Trends

Ethereum has stopped at the resistance level of $2,200. In the options market, the medium to short-term implied volatility (IV) has dropped over 8% from its peak and over 5% from two days ago, indicating a reduction in panic sentiment. Chip distribution shows that there is heavy resistance accumulating between $2,750 and $2,850, with as many as 7.5 million ETH, while there is dense support around $1,850 with 1.3 million ETH.

Analyst Ted Pillows warns that $2,000 is currently the only key support, and if lost, a sharp decline will accelerate, with prices potentially heading straight for a new low of $1,400. Ali Charts notes that the SuperTrend indicator on Ethereum's daily chart has turned green for the first time since last May, with momentum shifting towards the bulls. He believes that the long "sideways grinding" period is ending, and as long as the support at $1,800 holds, a new upward trend is about to begin, targeting $3,080 after breaking through $2,200.

Market Dynamics

Yesterday, the new draft of the US "Clarity Act" aims to completely ban the business model of passive holdings of stablecoins for earning profits and similar interest structures, which directly impacts the growth logic of USDC. Circle's stock fell approximately 25% in a single day, marking the largest drop in history, dragging Coinbase's stock down over 8%.

Currently, discussions about $TAO are increasing among domestic and international KOLs on social media. This token has risen nearly 90% in March, reaching above $344, a new high since December last year. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe states that the breakthrough of TAO clearly heralds the arrival of the "AI and cryptocurrency convergence" era. He believes that TAO's next strong resistance level will aim for the $450 to $500 range.

Key Data (as of March 25, 13:00 HKT)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

Bitcoin ETF: +$166.7 million, net inflow for the first time after net outflows in the past 3 days
Ethereum ETF: -$16.1842 million, continuing 4 days of net outflow
XRP ETF: +$1.3999 million
Fear and Greed Index: 14 (Extreme Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, ONT, ETH, SUN
Sector performance: The cryptocurrency market generally rose, the AI sector rose over 10%, while only the RWA sector saw a slight decline.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 65,308 individuals were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of $2.189 billion, including $69.95 million in BTC liquidations, $34.46 million in ETH liquidations, and $5.16 million in SOL liquidations.

Today's Outlook

Coinbase will launch the Impossible Cloud Network spot trading pair ICNT-USD
Coinbase will add Checkmate (CHECK) and Sign (SIGN) to its listing roadmap
Binance contracts will delist the APTUSD and OPUSD coin-based perpetual contracts on March 25
Metaplanet will hold a shareholder meeting on March 25
Binance contracts will list U-based perpetual contracts for Meta, NVIDIA, and Alphabet stocks
SOON: the soonBase L3 network will be shut down on March 26 to redirect resources toward building AI capital markets
Humanity (H) will unlock approximately 105 million tokens on March 25, valued at about $10.2 million

Today’s top gainers among the top 100 coins by market capitalization: Siren up 97.5%, Bittensor up 11.6%, Stellar up 8%, ASI Alliance up 7.5%, Quant up 7.4%.

Hot News

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