Crypto speculative positioning has been flushed out to levels at or below past market bottoms.

But for equities, net long positioning remains well above prior periods of economic stress.

The caveat is that crypto's positioning reset is likely driven by PTSD from the October 2025 liquidation event rather than any forward looking recession pricing.

Both positioning data and current asset prices point to a market that may be underestimating the macro consequences of an energy shock: slower growth, higher inflation, and tighter policy.

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