Trading Moment: The U.S. stock market has not yet shown a bottom-fishing signal. After a rare "six consecutive declines," can Bitcoin repeat the rebound trend of 2019?

Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macroeconomic Market

Last Friday, all three major U.S. stock indices fell, marking five consecutive weekly declines. Among them, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 3.23% last week, the S&P 500 Index dropped below the 6400-point mark, descending 2.12%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.90%. Goldman Sachs stated that with the S&P 500 Index closing lower for the fifth consecutive week, historical data suggests that U.S. stocks may face further downward pressure in the short term. JP Morgan pointed out that this phenomenon has only occurred a few times since 1970, most recently during the economic recession panic of 2022. Even during the COVID-19 pandemic or last April's "tariff day" market crash, the S&P 500 did not experience five consecutive weeks of declines. Following this, both the average and median trends over the next three weeks were down, indicating that the market may still face selling pressure in the short term. Bank of America Chief Investment Officer Michael Hartnett mentioned that although the bull-bear indicator has dropped to 7.4, ending the sell signal, it is still not the time to "buy the dip."

Since the outbreak of the Iran war, U.S. President Trump has remained unusually silent this weekend, not issuing new statements, taking more aggressive military actions, or commenting on the bond market situation. As the situation in the Middle East escalates, there are growing concerns about the risk of potential ground actions. The U.S. has deployed over 50,000 troops in the Middle East and sent hundreds of special forces to the region. Potential combat targets include the Strait of Hormuz, the oil hub on Kharg Island, and the Isfahan nuclear facility. Macquarie Group warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, oil prices could skyrocket to historical highs of $200.

Influenced by the escalation of the Middle East situation and the energy crisis, on March 30, both the Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened significantly lower, with intraday declines exceeding 5%. Market analysts pointed out that tensions in Iran show no signs of easing, and the soaring oil prices are bad news for Japan and South Korea, which heavily depend on Middle Eastern energy. The Korea Development Bank stated that it has held an emergency meeting to coordinate responses to the energy shock and plans to provide financing support to the Korea National Oil Corporation.

Bitcoin Market

Bitcoin prices have fluctuated down from last week's high of $72,000 to around $67,000, and over the weekend it even dipped to $65,000. Notably, tomorrow Bitcoin will face its monthly closing, currently hovering around $66,973 after the monthly opening. If the price at monthly close is below the opening price, that would mean Bitcoin has recorded declines for six consecutive months.

According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin's return rate in March is -0.76%. Historical data shows that Bitcoin has only experienced one instance of six consecutive months of decline, which occurred from August 2018 to January 2019, during which it fell 54.8%, but subsequently rebounded for five consecutive months from February 2019 to June 2019, rising over 200% cumulatively.

Bearish Views

Core logic: Macro inflationary pressures and escalating geopolitical conflicts have weakened expectations for Fed rate cuts, combined with weak on-chain accumulation, the market may face a deeper correction washout.

BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas: The situation in the Strait of Hormuz exacerbates inflation concerns, making it difficult for the Fed to cut rates; if conflicts escalate, Bitcoin may test the $60,000 support level.
BTSE Chief Operating Officer Jeff Mei: Oil and gas prices will remain high in the short term, dragging down economic growth; crypto prices still have room to fall, and Bitcoin may drop to $60,000.
On-chain analyst Willy Woo: Traditional on-chain models (CVDD) show that Bitcoin's potential bottom range may be between $46,000 and $54,000; if the macro fundamentals collapse, the market may enter an unprecedented deeper bear market.
Glassnode: The current Bitcoin price is at the lower end of the cost basis range for new investors, and the scale of on-chain accumulation remains below historical strong rebound levels, with the market yet to form a clear upward momentum signal.
Gold supporter Peter Schiff: It's hard to believe that Bitcoin is still above $65,000; holders should exit early and convert Bitcoin into real gold.
Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio: Has fully liquidated positions; 2026 will be tougher than 2025; needs to reduce trading frequency and maintain patience.

Bullish Views

Core logic: Spot buying demonstrates resilience at key support levels; cyclical deleveraging is gathering momentum for the future, and as local bearish factors exhaust, bulls are poised to counterattack.

CoinDesk analysis: After Bitcoin's high-level pullback, it has entered a "reset period," essentially a normal adjustment of cyclical "deleveraging + liquidity contraction." 2026 may present a "multi-stage recovery," laying the foundation for the next upward cycle.
Trader Cav: Significant negative delta and long lower wicks appeared at the weekend lows, indicating meaningful passive buying has absorbed selling pressure; if trapped shorts encounter a price rebound, they may turn into forced buying.
Trader Killa: As investors are gradually building positions in the spot market, the risk-reward ratio for downward and upward movements has become unbalanced. Currently hedging with longs at $65,560, targeting the $67.8K and $69.5K zones.
Trader Astronomer: Successfully built long positions around $65,000, with large buyers supporting prices. Although there is still a magnetic effect around $61,000-$62,000, the high time frames remain completely bullish.

Ethereum Updates

Ethereum faced pressure over the weekend, dipping below $2,000, and the assets under management for the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF have plummeted 65% from last October to $11.76 billion. Polymarket data shows that the market believes the probability of Ethereum being surpassed by USDT in 2026 has risen from 17% at the beginning of the year to 59%. Cointelegraph analysis indicates that Ethereum's market value has only grown by 11.75% over the past five years, significantly lagging behind USDT's 622.50%. The price is currently in a "bear flag" pattern, and if it breaks below the lower edge, it may drop to a target of $1,250 in June.

Trader Luca pointed out that although the price has broken below the $2,800 and $2,100 support levels, after pulling back to last April's bottom support area, the risk-reward will ultimately favor bulls. Notably, if Ethereum closes below $1,961, the monthly opening price on March 31, it will mark an unprecedented seventh consecutive month of declines.

Key Data (As of March 30 at 13:00 HKT)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

Bitcoin ETF: Net outflow of $296 million last week
Ethereum ETF: Net outflow of $207 million last week
SOL ETF: Net outflow of $4.2373 million last week
XRP ETF: Net inflow of $2.6639 million last week
Fear and Greed Index: 8 (Extreme Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, ETH, ONT, SENT
Sector Performance: The crypto market mostly rose, with the AI sector up 2.35%

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 79,925 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $279 million, including $111 million in Bitcoin liquidations, $69.16 million in Ethereum liquidations, and $18.18 million in SOL liquidations.

Today's Outlook

Binance will delist UTK on March 30
Based Foundation: The BASED token will undergo TGE on March 30
Bithumb confirms it will delist BLY on March 30
Binance Alpha will list R2 Protocol (R2) on March 30
edgeX confirms $EDGE token will launch on March 31
FTX will redistribute $2.2 billion to creditors starting March 31
Polymarket will expand its fee structure on March 30, no longer limited to the cryptocurrency and sports fields
Kamino (KMNO) will unlock approximately 22.9 million tokens on March 30, valued at around $4 million
Zora (ZORA) will unlock approximately 16.7 million tokens on March 30, valued at around $2.5 million
Optimism (OP) will unlock approximately 31.34 million tokens on March 31, valued at around $3.2 million

Today’s top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap: DeXe up 13.9%, Siren up 13.2%, MemeCore up 6%, Sky (previously Maker) up 4.8%, and Chiliz up 4.3%.

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