Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: Quarter-End Liquidation Day, the First Quarter's Bill is Presented to Everyone

On Tuesday, the calendar turned to March 31, marking the last page of the first quarter of 2026.

As of the close on Monday (March 30), the S&P 500 stood at 6,343, down over 7% for the quarter, having diverged more than 9% from the historical high at the end of January, positioned just a step away from the correction zone. The Nasdaq is already within the correction zone, and the Dow officially fell into correction last Friday—both the Dow and Nasdaq have fallen simultaneously, a situation not seen since the aggressive rate hike cycle of the Federal Reserve that began in 2022. The Russell 2000 small-cap stocks fared worse, closing at 2,414, with a correction depth exceeding 12%. The S&P has seen five consecutive weeks of declines, marking the longest consecutive weekly drop since 2022.

The quarter-end "window dressing" effect was expected to provide some support, as fund managers tend to switch holdings at the end of the quarter, selling losers to buy winners to create visually appealing positions. However, in this first quarter, "winners" themselves have been a controversial term: energy and defense stocks rose, at the cost of technology and consumer stocks plummeting drastically. The answers locked in by fund managers as "best holdings" often involved oil stocks that have outperformed the market rather than Nvidia and Microsoft.

This distorted internal structure was clearly reflected in the trading on Monday. The Dow only rose by 49.5 points (+0.11%) as Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, and energy companies supported the defense line; the S&P 500 fell 0.39%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.73%, with the tech sector once again acting as a drag. Micron's single-day plunge of 9.7% is a microcosm of the war's slow burn on chip stocks: Google's computing power compression algorithm and uncertainties in the semiconductor supply chain due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have made even the most favored AI hardware stocks cautious. The tech sector's 50-day moving average has fallen below the 200-day moving average, forming a "death cross," and the five-month streak of declines is the longest since the bursting of the internet bubble in September 2002.

On Monday, one more statement is worth noting for the historical record: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, in a speech at Harvard University, clearly stated that the Fed's policy is "in the right place," leaning towards "looking past" this supply-side shock. He said, "By the time the effects of tightening monetary policy really transmit to the economy, this oil price shock will likely have passed, and suppressing the economy at that point would be imprudent." This is a textbook-level dovish statement—but the market's reaction was continued declines, as oil prices are still climbing, with WTI already standing at $102.88 and Brent above $108.

Powell's "seeing through" and the oil price's "not seeing through" represent the most intractable contradiction in this quarter-end market.

The key highlights today lie in the simultaneous release of data and financial reports: the Consumer Confidence Index (March) and JOLTS job openings (February) will be released during the session, while Nike will announce its earnings after market close—this is the only heavyweight earnings report from a Dow component this season and the first mid-term review for consumer giants since the beginning of this conflict. Wall Street's consensus estimates an EPS of about $0.29, down about 46% year-on-year, with revenues of about $11.2 billion, roughly in line with last year's figures. Under low bases, the impact of the supply chains in Vietnam and India affected by the Strait of Hormuz blockade will be a key variable in management's remarks.

Morgan Stanley's judgment is worth highlighting: the firm downgraded global equities to "neutral" ahead of the quarter's end while upgrading U.S. Treasuries and cash to "overweight." The reason is that "the uncertainty regarding the scale and duration of oil supply disruptions has made the outlook for risk assets increasingly asymmetric"—this is the most restrained language used by Wall Street's top institutions to articulate the most pessimistic expectations.

Gold and Oil Prices: Oil Prices Remain High at Quarter-End, Gold Rebounds in Reverse

Oil Prices: $103, War Premium Has Not Subsided

WTI crude oil closed on Monday at $102.88 per barrel, and Brent crude oil was in the range of $108 to $109, both reaching new phase highs since the outbreak of the Iran war. The catalyst came from a new wave of escalations over the weekend: Houthi rebels in Yemen launched missiles at Israeli and U.S. military targets, and Iran attacked a tanker passing through Kuwaiti waters—this directly triggered a new round of rising futures in the later part of Monday's trading.

From the data perspective, the total bill of this war for oil prices shows that WTI was around $57 at the beginning of the year, and now it has risen about 80%. This is the largest market story of the quarter.

A noteworthy macro perspective: some economists have pointed out that the current intensity of global supply contractions is comparable to the OPEC embargo shock during the Arab-Israeli war in 1973. The IEA has characterized this crisis as "the most severe global energy security challenge in history."

Gold: Seeking Conditions for Re-Takeoff in the Cracks of Oil Price Inflation

Gold rose about 1.4% on Monday, trading in the range of $4,542 to $4,544, moving past the earlier low point of $4,100.

The structural predicament of gold remains complicated: on one hand, it has indeed been pressured as the dollar strengthens with rising inflation expectations; on the other hand, the war itself and the central bank's persistent accumulation of reserves create a bottom demand that has never disappeared. Overall, gold dropped about 17% in March, marking the worst single month since 1983—but that was after reaching a historical high of $5,600. Standing at the quarter's end, gold still recorded positive returns for the entire quarter, remaining one of the best-performing major assets this year aside from energy stocks.

Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Stabilizes After Falling, but Quarter-End Bill is Also Grim

Bitcoin was around $66,727 on Monday, briefly rising to about $67,747 during the day, but the overall quarterly performance was bleak, with a decline of over 30% from the high point of about $97,000 at the start of the year, officially becoming the worst-performing mainstream asset class of the year.

An unexpected signal came at quarter-end: Strategy paused Bitcoin purchases for the first time this week, breaking the streak of 13 consecutive weeks of buying during the most intense phase of the war. This may not necessarily be a bearish signal, but could be an internal management operation; however, given that Bernstein had just proclaimed that "the bottom is visible," the timing of this pause is particularly noteworthy.

Bitcoin's situation throughout Q1 has its inherent complexity: it plummeted initially with all risk assets at the outbreak of the war, then rebounded during certain phases, demonstrating a certain "geopolitical crisis resilience," but ultimately could not escape the gravitational pull of liquidity logic in the macro environment shifting towards higher interest rate expectations. The total global crypto market cap shrank about 25% to roughly $2.5 trillion in Q1, and the fear and greed index remained around 25 (extreme fear).

Throughout Q1, the primary suppressing force in the crypto market was not a single plunge, but a persistent tightening of liquidity expectations—when the Fed's next step shifted from "rate cuts" to "possible rate hikes," all high-risk assets began to be repriced.

Summary of Today: End of the War Quarter, How History Will Record These 32 Days

March 31 marks the end of Q1 2026:

U.S. Stocks: The S&P 500 fell over 7% for the entire quarter, the Dow and Nasdaq entered correction zones, and the tech sector has experienced the longest streak of five consecutive monthly declines since 2002, with the VIX remaining above 30. This quarterly decline nearly all occurred in the 32 trading days following the joint strikes by the U.S. and Israel against Iran on February 28.

Oil Prices/Gold: WTI crude oil rose from about $57 to $102 for the quarter, an increase of about 80%, representing the most direct impact of the war on the global economy; gold dropped back to around $4,500 after reaching a historical high of $5,600, still recording positive returns for the quarter, but with a monthly drop of about 17% in March, marking the worst single month since 1983.

Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin fell over 30% for the quarter, becoming the worst-performing mainstream asset in Q1, but has rebounded from a low of about $62,800 during its worst period and is now stabilizing in the $66,000 to $68,000 range.

The market is now focused on one question: When April 6 arrives, will Trump really press the button?

April 6 is the latest deadline set by Trump, and if the Strait of Hormuz has not reopened by then, he will face the choice of striking Iranian energy infrastructure or delaying further. Both outcomes carry market costs: the former implies oil prices breaking $130 and real recession risks; the latter suggests Trump's negotiating credibility will be further eroded, and the market will begin to seriously price in a scenario of "long-term blockade."

No one knows which path will be chosen. All we know is that the first quarter has ended, and the cost of those 32 days is written in every asset class's K-line.