Written by: @qinbafrank

The market's patience and confidence have been severely impacted, with the "spring disaster" turning into a "summer disaster." Besides the situation in Iran, what other factors are affecting the market? Last week, we mentioned that the market's patience might last for the final week; if no clear signals of resolution are seen within a week, then the market's patience and confidence might suffer another blow. In the last two trading days of last week, the market already couldn't hold on. Many believe that U.S. stocks broke their positions last week; from my personal perspective, when I first mentioned the "spring disaster market" at the beginning of February, U.S. stocks were already under pressure overall. Since the beginning of February, U.S. stocks have been suppressed by two core logic lines:

1) In February, the market worried whether the soaring capital expenditures in the large tech sector could be accounted for. Implicitly, this relates to changes in the overall business model and the downward shift in valuation center. This was discussed before in the tweet about the war on capital expenditures;

2) Starting in late February, the situation in Iran intensified, leading to deferred market worries. Until February 28, when actual conflict broke out, concerns about inflation and recession emerged, dragging U.S. stocks from minor declines into a medium-level adjustment.

When observing the market, I have a framework for weighing the factors affecting the market during a phase, focusing on the most weighted driving factor, as this represents the main driving logic. Market fluctuations largely stem from the evolution of the main driving logic, and subsequent turning points will inevitably arise from changes in this logic.

Currently, there is no doubt that the ongoing impact of the Iran situation remains significant; the longer oil prices stay high, the more severe the damage to energy facilities, thus increasing future inflation pressure. In the short term, it's a suppression of interest rate policies, while in the medium to long term, it suppresses demand. This is basically the primary way the Iran situation affects the market, which has been discussed multiple times before.

Now, the focus of the Iran situation lies in: whether the U.S. will deploy troops to control key points in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's key energy export bases; whether the U.S. and Iran can eventually negotiate.

Also, the current statements from both the U.S. and Iran actually point toward the possibility of continuing to escalate. Iran currently maintains a strong asymmetric advantage over the Strait of Hormuz, showing no signs of backing down. While Trump has expressed a willingness to negotiate, the issue is that a decent outcome would also be a disaster for the U.S. politically, as it would not be allowed. Today, the Iranian parliament has already approved a bill to impose tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, which effectively pressures the U.S. and Israel to escalate actions to try to eliminate Iran's trump card. Although today media reports indicate Trump stating that even if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, he intends to end the war, it is uncertain if this is a smokescreen. If true, even if we cannot say that the U.S. completely withdraws from the Middle East, it at least means a retreat from the Persian Gulf, with the core Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, and U.S. bases in the UAE and Kuwait likely to be abandoned.

Of course, there are other factors currently affecting the market, but these factors are more or less side effects of the Iran situation.

1) Everyone is worried about future inflation; the core issue is how the duration of high oil prices will determine the persistence of inflation rebound;

2) The possible future interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve; currently, the market's focus is on high oil prices and potential inflation rebound, while it actually overlooks the fact that the U.S. labor market collapsed in February (with no new non-farm employment added and actually decreased). From the recent bond market trends, it is noticeable that the bond market has shifted from worrying about inflation and interest rate hikes to concern about demand significantly weakening, leading to recession.

3) The fundamental growth of AI, which should actually be the focus, has been overshadowed by geopolitical macro impacts. However, we will have to wait until late April to assess how much of the AI Agent craze that started in early 2026, with everyone burning tokens, translates into large tech companies' cloud business revenues. After all, most of the token computing power also comes from the computing power infrastructure of major cloud vendors. If the performance is indeed outstanding, it will naturally confirm and validate that large-scale investments can be profitable. But for now, those focused on fundamentals must wait for clarity in the geopolitical situation.

4) The issue of private credit essentially boils down to the emotional shock caused by LPs wanting to redeem in advance amidst macro uncertainty. If one closely examines the data reports from BlackRock and Blackstone's private credit funds, we can see that credit assets are still looking reasonably good, and there has not been large-scale defaults.

In early February, when I mentioned the "spring disaster market," I believed that the U.S. stock market would see small to medium-level declines and adjustments; by early March, I explicitly stated that this should be a medium-level adjustment for U.S. stocks. At that time, the S&P was down 6%, and the NASDAQ was down 8%; today, the latest figures show the S&P down 10% and the NASDAQ nearly down 13%.

Overall, we still need to monitor the situation in Iran. If Trump and the U.S. are forced to escalate the situation, they will ultimately need battlefield advantages to gain negotiation power, which means the market will continue to face further pressure during this process.

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