BTC markets look random until you understand the participants.

Most allocators treat BTC as an asset you buy and hold. But long exposure isn't always structurally rewarded. It depends on who's driving the market at any given time. Patient capital supports stable trends. Speculative capital fractures coordination and drawdowns follow.

The Game Theory framework from @that1618guy classifies these regimes in real time. When backtested it was only allocated roughly 45% of the time but by selectively participating based on the behavioral regime it generated 4x more return per unit of market exposure compared to buy and hold.

A large part of the outperformance came from knowing when not to participate.

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