As of April 6, at 8 AM UTC+8, the price of Bitcoin reached a peak of approximately $70,191 during the day, with a daily increase of about 4.8%, while Ethereum peaked at around $2,169, with an increase of approximately 6.2%. Meanwhile, the weekly MACD indicator for Bitcoin is approaching a golden crossover, and the price has recaptured the 200-week EMA, marking a long-term trend watershed, with key bullish technical signals being lit almost simultaneously. In the pre-market U.S. stock market, crypto concept stocks such as Coinbase (+3.8%), MicroStrategy (+4.2%), and Circle (+4.5%) collectively rose, further amplifying bullish sentiment. On the other hand, U.S. inflation and tensions in the Middle East, especially between the U.S. and Iran, continue to suppress global risk appetite, making the contradiction between "technical bullishness" and "escalating geopolitical risk" the main theme of the current market.

Weekly Golden Cross Approaching: Bullish Signals Light Up Collectively

On the weekly level, a MACD golden crossover is often seen as an important signal of a medium to long-term trend changing from bearish to bullish, especially after a period of consolidation or decline. Once the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it typically indicates a shift in market momentum from weakening to recovering. The 200-week EMA is commonly used by long-term investors as a trend lifeline; historically, whether prices can recover and remain above this level is often interpreted as the division between bull and bear cycles. Currently, these two signals are approaching their trigger points almost simultaneously, prompting technicians to reassess Bitcoin's medium to long-term direction.

In terms of price performance, Bitcoin's current round rose to approximately $70,191, while Ethereum surged to around $2,169, recording increases of approximately 4.8% and 6.2%, respectively. The prices have returned above the 200-week EMA, combined with the narrowing of the weekly MACD histogram and the convergence of the fast and slow lines, forming an improvement in the "price + momentum" combination that responds to the increase. Some market views suggest that "this weekly MACD may be opening a new crypto asset cycle" and that "recapturing the 200-week EMA is a key watershed for strengthening the medium to long-term trend." These judgments mainly stem from single or limited source analyses and are more suitable as technical clues for reference rather than conclusions that have been widely accepted by the market.

Looking Back from 2025: Historical References with Similar Signals

Looking back through time since 2025, Bitcoin has seen several instances of MACD golden cross signals or key signals of the price regaining its long-term moving average. Each of these was accompanied by a phase shift in sentiment: when the indicator crosses positively from a low level, it often corresponds to the most pessimistic period of market sentiment, while the technical reversal provides a structural reason for funds to enter. However, not all golden crosses evolve into full bull markets; some only bring a period of intermediate rebound before falling back again, which is also where the current market divergence lies.

In these cases, the market has often drawn comparisons with a typical pattern: at that time, Bitcoin experienced a long period of sideways movement and decline before a clear MACD golden cross occurred, alongside the price reclaiming the core long-term moving average. Over the next cycle, the price accumulated an increase of about $25,000 from the bottom area, initially surging quickly, then entering a prolonged platform consolidation, and further rising with the combination of macro and funding support. This combination of “golden cross + return to long-term moving average + tens of thousands of dollars area increase” has been mirrored by some analysts to reflect the current structure.

In comparison to the present, the current combination of the weekly MACD approaching a golden cross and the price reclaiming the 200-week EMA is similar: momentum shifts from negative to positive, and the long-term trend line is reclaimed, transitioning the technical form from "exhaustion" to "recovery." However, the differences lie in the significant changes in the macro environment, liquidity conditions, and regulatory attitudes, as well as the current position being in a higher absolute price range, resulting in greater potential volatility and retracement. Historical comparisons can provide path imaginations, but do not equate to a replica of results; simply matching the current situation to a specific historical movement, while ignoring the differences in cyclical background, poses risks that cannot be overlooked.

On-Chain and Derivatives: Open Interest and Buying Pressure Resonance

From the perspective of on-chain and derivatives, according to single source data, the current open contract size on exchanges and active buying pressure are rising synchronously, indicating a certain level of resonance between leveraged funds and spot/contract buying sentiment. The growth in open contracts means more capital is entering the market to establish positions, and when this change occurs simultaneously with price increases, it is typically interpreted as the bullish leverage strengthening rather than merely a short covering driven temporary rebound.

In this framework, an increase in open contracts + price appreciation often indicates that trend-based capital rather than pure arbitrage is dominating the market. The involvement of leveraged longs amplifies the response to technical signals: once key moving averages and important indicators are broken, these funds are more willing to add positions, resulting in a rhythm of "breakout—acceleration—consolidation." From a risk perspective, concentrated leveraged longs can also amplify volatility during profit-taking and forced liquidations, increasing the sharpness of the market.

The amplification of active buying pressure is a key intermediary for whether technical breakthroughs can translate into substantial price momentum. When proactive buy orders consistently create pressure on the sell side, prices are more likely to rise along support levels, giving the technical shape's "signal" a chance to manifest as the trend itself. However, it should be noted that the current data samples regarding open interest and active buying pressure come from limited sources, and the covered exchanges and products are not comprehensive, suggesting a potential directional force rather than providing a definitive portrait of the entire market and all varieties. Users should maintain a cautious attitude towards the data definitions and statistical scope when using this information.

Geopolitical Tensions and Inflation Shadow: Divergence of Bull and Bear Paths

On a macro and geopolitical level, U.S. inflation data remains in a range that keeps the market on alert, suppressing optimistic expectations for easy monetary policy, while tensions in the Middle East, particularly the U.S.-Iran situation, continue to add uncertainty to global asset pricing. In this environment, overall risk appetite is suppressed, making it difficult for risk assets like stocks and crypto to gain consistent support from a macro narrative, with more common occurrences of segment-driven and event-driven trends. This also explains why, despite significant improvements in technical signals, the market remains divided on whether it has entered a "new cycle."

When risk aversion rises, some funds tend to increase their allocations to traditional safe-haven assets or cash positions, applying pressure on risk assets; however, others view Bitcoin as an alternative asset to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risk, choosing to gradually buy in during price corrections or when technical patterns strengthen. Therefore, the relationship between risk aversion preferences and pressure on risk assets is not unidirectional but resembles a reallocation of different types of capital between "traditional safe-haven instruments" and "digital safe-haven assets." This structural divergence will also reflect on the inflow and outflow of capital in the crypto market.

Against this backdrop, bullish technical signals and macro uncertainties form a hedge: on one hand, signals such as the weekly golden cross approaching and returning to the 200-week EMA provide a basis for bullish entries; on the other hand, inflation and geopolitical contests remind the market to retain risk buffers. A more pragmatic discussion framework is to construct situation-based paths of both bullish and bearish scenarios rather than making singular directional predictions:

● In scenarios where macro and geopolitical risks are phased down, technical recovery may attract more incremental funds, making the current rebound evolve into a more complete intermediate upward wave; historically, cases of "golden cross + volume increase" hold certain reference value.

● If inflation exceeds expectations or geopolitical tensions escalate, risk assets may face a new wave of risk-off selling pressures, forcing a halt to the positive technical trends, and the current signals may become a "false breakout" before a period of high volatility consolidation or even deeper adjustments, with potential risks of the weekly golden cross becoming dulled or quickly falling back.

From BTC to ETH and Concept Stocks: A Diffusion of Emotional Chains

From the perspective of asset lineage, there are certain differences in the performance of BTC and ETH during this round of rebound: Bitcoin peaked at approximately $70,191 with an increase of about 4.8%, and Ethereum peaked at around $2,169 with an increase of approximately 6.2%. This indicates that after Bitcoin reclaimed critical technical levels, funds started to spread towards mainstream assets like Ethereum, showcasing a rhythm of "leading bull—mainstream catch-up." If this rhythm continues, the market is expected to transition from a single asset trend to a broader mainstream asset trend, with the risk being that if Bitcoin undergoes a significant retracement, mainstream coins often come under heavier pressure.

On the traditional market side, crypto concept stocks collectively strengthened in pre-market trading: Coinbase +3.8%, MicroStrategy +4.2%, Circle +4.5%. These assets benefit from the improved business expectations brought by the rise in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices, while also serving as a "magnifying glass" for traditional institutional sentiment. When concept stocks rise in tandem, it indicates that some traditional capital is willing to indirectly bet on crypto assets through the equity market, with technical recovery signals beginning to spill over from crypto spots and derivatives to a broader equity market.

From the three levels of spot—derivatives—equity market, the current structure shares similarities with certain early phases of historical cycles: first, spot prices stabilize after a decline, followed by derivatives leveraging and active buying amplifying technical breakthroughs, and finally, sentiment extends to the stock prices of companies closely tied to crypto. However, the difference lies in the significantly higher levels of regulation, compliance, and institutional participation compared to earlier cycles, with traditional capital's exposure to crypto assets being realized more through compliant channels and corporate equities, resulting in a longer price transmission chain, potentially differing in speed and intensity of feedback compared to the past. This means that even if the technical and sentiment patterns are similar, the capital structure has drastically changed.

Key Price Levels and Time Windows: A Triple Observation on Market Validation

Considering technical signals, on-chain leverage, and the macro environment, the ongoing discussion about "whether a new cycle has commenced" is better described using conditional and probabilistic approaches rather than offering simple affirmatives or negatives. On one hand, the weekly MACD nearing a golden cross, the price returning to the 200-week EMA, and the simultaneous rise of open interest and active buying lean towards offering benefits to bulls; on the other hand, the path of U.S. inflation remains unclear, and uncertainties around the U.S.-Iran situation have yet to be resolved, meaning any single technical signal must be viewed within the broader macro context.

Without fabricating specific numerical resistance levels, it can be summarized that the market is currently focused on several key areas: above, there is a prior high-density transaction and sentiment reinforcement zone; once breached with increased volume, bulls can be expected to gain further trend-following support; below, there is a support band near the recent rapid rise's starting point and key moving averages; if clearly broken, it indicates a reduction in the credibility of this technical recovery, and the market may return to a path of high-volatility oscillation or even deeper adjustments. The repeated contest between these intervals will become an intuitive window for observing the strength of bullish and bearish forces.

Moving forward, market participants should closely track three types of validation signals:

● Inflation Data: Future U.S. inflation and employment data will directly influence expectations of monetary policy, determining the overall liquidity's tightness, forming a foundational constraint on the valuation central for risk assets.

● Progress of the U.S.-Iran Situation: Easing or escalating tensions in the Middle East, especially between the U.S. and Iran, will influence the strength of risk aversion sentiment, altering the perception of Bitcoin’s role as a "risk asset/hedge asset" in phases.

● Whether the Weekly MACD Truly Crosses and Sustains: It's not just about observing the formal crossover of technical indicators, but also watching the continuation and volume-price cooperation after the crossover, to determine if this is a starting point for a trend reversal or yet another "false signal" interrupted by macro conditions and liquidity.

Before these factors become clearer, simply categorizing the current market as "a new cycle has begun" or "the rebound has topped" is premature. A more pragmatic approach is to dynamically assess the outcomes of the battle between technical and macro influences around key price areas and time windows.

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