On April 14, 2026, in East Eight Time, Kraken secretly submitted S-1 documents to the U.S. SEC during a downturn in the cryptocurrency market, initiating the IPO process in the U.S., once again bringing this established exchange into the spotlight. Public information shows that its latest primary market valuation is approximately $13.3 billion, a drop of about 33.5% from the high point of nearly $20 billion in 2025, with the valuation discount highly synchronized with the cooling of industry sentiment. Against the backdrop of a significant markdown in valuation and persistent high pressure from U.S. regulations, Kraken's choice to push forward with the IPO is no longer merely a story of “high exit,” but more like a bet during a period of global regulatory reshaping and traditional capital exploration: Is this a layout that transcends cycles or a passive response to environmental challenges?

Valuation Shrinks by One Third: Is the IPO Surrender or a New Start

Numerically, the adjustment in Kraken's valuation is not mild. During the euphoric phase of 2025, its valuation was once listed at about $20 billion, while after submitting the confidential S-1 to the SEC, Golden Finance and Planet Daily cited market sources stating that the latest valuation is only around $13.3 billion, corresponding to a decline of about 33.5%. This reflects both the overall decrease in cryptocurrency market capitalization and trading volume and indicates a repricing of the risk premium associated with trading exchanges' business models. The lowered valuation is not an isolated case but rather a shared reality of discounts faced by the entire sector in the post-bull market phase.

However, most institutional research has not simply categorized this round of adjustments as “negative.” An analyst told Planet Daily that the decrease in Kraken's valuation from $20 billion to the $13 billion range is “more like a more rational market pricing,” which separates the previously compounded emotional premium bubble. For potential secondary market investors, a discounted pre-IPO valuation is beneficial for improving the cost-effectiveness after issuance, avoiding the pathway of continuous price drops seen after some high-profile IPOs. This type of “squeeze out excess before hitting the road” operation is not uncommon in tech and high-growth company IPOs.

The change in the slope of the valuation curve also means that Kraken's motivation to push for an IPO has shifted. During the high point of 2025, the exchange's narrative was more easily told as a growth stock story of “occupying global digital asset infrastructure and seizing the premium of the new financial paradigm,” with primary shareholders inclined to realize partial liquidity at a high point; now it is closer to “fundraising to solidify the fundamentals”: in an environment where regulatory costs are rising and compliance investments are increasing, supplementing capital in the public market to strengthen licensing acquisition, risk control systems, and product diversification. The IPO has gradually shifted from a wealth liquidation tool to a financing lever for survival and expansion.

For early shareholders and the primary market, this round of valuation repricing undoubtedly brings a psychological gap. Early entrants need to weigh between expected book returns and a higher probability of success—accepting a discount of around 33% in exchange for a higher certainty of “completing the process and truly listing.” For potential new shareholders, although the pricing range at the $13 billion level is no longer dazzling, it conversely possesses the appeal of “participating in the long-term track entrance at a more reasonable price” if combined with the elasticity expected from the future opening of the cryptocurrency cycle. This bidirectional game constitutes the most realistic psychological battle of valuation behind Kraken's IPO process.

Deutsche Börse Bets $200 Million: A Tentative Embrace from Wall Street

Simultaneously with the valuation reconstruction, Kraken's equity structure is quietly changing. Public data shows that Deutsche Börse has invested approximately $200 million in Kraken, acquiring about 1.5% equity, implying a corresponding valuation hovering around $13 billion. For a traditional European trading hub known for derivatives and securities clearing, betting real money on a crypto-native platform sends a signal that goes beyond mere financial investment. It is a public bet within the tightly regulated German financial system on whether “crypto exchanges can be embedded into traditional financial infrastructure.”

This investment is not an isolated event. As early as December 2025, Kraken and Deutsche Börse announced a strategic cooperation to establish closer connections around digital asset custody, compliant trading, and infrastructure interfaces. In the joint statement at that time, this cooperation was described as "an important milestone in connecting traditional finance and digital assets," intentionally reinforcing the narrative tags of "bridge" and "hub." For the prudently regulated European market, enabling a mainstream exchange to deeply bind with a crypto platform is, in practice, releasing a policy and public opinion “safety signal” for more institutional participation in the future.

The involvement of traditional financial shareholders significantly enhances Kraken's compliant image and business expansion. On one hand, relying on benchmark institutions like Deutsche Börse helps strengthen its brand impression of being “compliance-friendly” and “risk controls are auditable” when facing European and American institutional clients, opening up higher quality clientele for custody, market-making, and over-the-counter services. On the other hand, in packaging the story for the IPO, “being invested in by traditional exchanges and collaborating closely” itself serves as a strong selling point—it offers a narrative clue extending from regulatory-friendly regions to global capital markets, enabling the SEC and Wall Street investors to view Kraken as a “participant that can be integrated into the existing financial order,” rather than an adversary outside the system.

More importantly, this list of traditional capital shareholders will play a “backing effect” during the roadshow and pricing process. For hesitant institutions, seeing names like Deutsche Börse in the shareholder structure often alleviates their concerns about compliance risks and operational transparency. In other words, the $200 million funding is just part of the “ticket price”; more crucially, Deutsche Börse adds a layer of insurance to Kraken's IPO story with its own credibility.

Confidential S-1 Filing: Stumbling Forward Under the SEC’s Shadow

Kraken has submitted a confidential S-1 to the SEC, rather than an openly disclosed prospectus draft from the start. According to the U.S. regulatory framework, confidential filings allow companies planning to go public to engage in multiple rounds of back-and-forth communication with the SEC over sensitive matters such as financial disclosures, business descriptions, and risk factors before the documents are officially disclosed to the public. Only after both parties reach a basic consensus on information disclosure will the public disclosure and roadshow commence. This mechanism essentially reserves a space for high-sensitivity companies to “tweak the lighting backstage before the spotlight comes on.”

For Kraken, which is caught between the cryptocurrency industry and U.S. regulation, choosing a confidential filing is almost the only rational route. On one hand, the confidential process can reduce public noise during the most intense phase of regulatory feedback, avoiding each SEC opinion letter being exaggerated by external parties; on the other hand, it also leaves room for negotiation and adjustment between the company and the regulators—if encountering hard conditions like key business restrictions or a significant need to restructure financial models, Kraken can still choose to slow down or even pause the push without leaving a public tarnish of “being denied by the SEC on the spot.”

Looking back at the past few years, Kraken's IPO plan has not been a straight line. Public reports mention that its listing path was once paused due to worsening market conditions and regulatory uncertainties, with some media also mentioning statements about “formally pausing the IPO plan in March 2026” awaiting verification, indicating its extra caution in controlling the rhythm. This restart, and the shift to the confidential S-1 form, to some extent implies that Kraken believes that the current regulatory environment, while unfriendly, has become negotiable and contestable—at least regarding financial reports, KYC/AML systems, and business boundaries, there is an opportunity to reach a “minimum acceptable consensus” through compliance engineering and textual refinement.

At the same time, Kraken has deliberately reserved a large amount of key information in this filing, without disclosing fundraising scale, underwriting lineup, and specific listing timeline. In the briefing, these data are clearly marked as missing and prohibited from speculation. For the market, this information vacuum certainly increases uncertainty, but it also reserves operational space for the company and investment banks to adjust the issuance rhythm in the coming months based on market conditions—if the cryptocurrency market further warms, the issuance scale and valuation range can be more aggressive; if macro and regulatory conditions cool again, then it can reduce the volume, delay, or even press the pause button again.

Bear Market Road: Comparing Kraken’s Counterwind Choice to Coinbase's Prosperity Phase

If Kraken's decision is compared to the last star event—Coinbase’s listing, the contrast is particularly striking. When Coinbase went public on NASDAQ in 2021, Bitcoin and mainstream token prices were near historic highs, with spot and derivative trading volumes booming, with business indicators and industry sentiment jointly pushing up market expectations for “the first compliant cryptocurrency exchange stock.” It was a booming window during which “any story related to digital assets could garner high multiples.” Now, Kraken chooses to go public in an environment of overall low cryptocurrency sentiment, declining trading volume, and increased regulatory intensity, undoubtedly a counterwind operation.

However, compared to the pressure of a stock price drop after a high-profile listing, an early discount in valuation may provide Kraken with a layer of “safety margin.” In the scenario where the expected valuation declines from $20 billion to around $13 billion, the secondary market’s growth expectations become more conservative, leaving management with space to gradually fill the hole with performance. For the roadshow team, this means they can use “will not significantly underperform” as a selling point: by adopting a milder issuance pricing, they can exchange for a smoother trading performance post-listing, avoiding reoccurrence of negative public opinion caused by certain tech stocks falling below their issue price on the first day of their IPOs.

However, the safety margin does not erase long-term uncertainties. The primary constraint Kraken faces remains regulation: the compliance requirements for exchanges in the U.S. and Europe continue to escalate, and investments in KYC, AML, market monitoring, and asset verification will steadily erode profit margins. Meanwhile, the severe volatility of the cryptocurrency cycle makes its revenue highly dependent on volatility and trading volume peaks, naturally bearing the characteristics of “cyclical stocks.” How to dilute the volatility of trading business through subscription models, institutional custody, and institutional liquidity services during cycle gaps is a question it must clearly answer to IPO investors.

Within this framework, how institutional investors define Kraken becomes the key discrepancy of this IPO story. Supporters are more willing to view it as “strategic positioning in the digital assets entry point”—believing that the current valuation has reflected most regulatory and cyclical risks, and once the next macro and cryptocurrency cycles resonate positively, holding shares in Kraken will expose them to high beta growth of the entire industry. Meanwhile, the more cautious side may categorize it as a “typical cyclical stock betting target,” arguing that its profits are highly dependent on market conditions, making it difficult to provide stable valuation multiples like traditional exchanges; therefore, it is more suitable to participate using the strategic betting logic of “buying before a bull market and cashing out during the bull market.”

After the IPO: How Will the Valuation Coordinates of Crypto Exchanges Be Redrawn

In summary, Kraken is promoting its IPO under the combined influences of valuation markdown, regulatory games, and support from traditional capital, backed by a complex and realistic motivation mix: on one hand, the discount at the $13 billion-level valuation is a correction of past bubbles and provides more acceptable price anchors for the introduction of new shareholders into the public market; on the other hand, the confidential S-1 filing and the stake from Deutsche Börse offer regulatory and credibility support, helping Kraken find a path of “being integrated into the mainstream financial order” amidst high pressure. For the management team and existing shareholders, this feels more like securing a portion of liquidity and institutional positioning in the face of amplified macro uncertainties, rather than chasing an idealistic “perfect listing” at the right moment.

If Kraken’s IPO successfully advances and achieves relatively stable performance in the secondary market, it will play a new benchmarking role in the pricing system of the entire cryptocurrency sector. On one hand, it will provide a realistic reference for other large exchanges yet to go public—what valuation multiples, profit tolerances, and growth expectations the market is willing to assign to “compliant cryptocurrency exchanges” under rising compliance costs and restrictions on derivatives and spot businesses; on the other hand, it will also affect the valuation anchors of related concept stocks and industry chain companies, allowing the secondary market to reorder its risk premiums for “crypto infrastructure stocks.” In this process, the “dual anchors” effect of Coinbase and Kraken may gradually replace the early valuation methods reliant on narrative storytelling.

More open questions arise regarding whether Kraken’s actions should be seen as a significant step forward in the institutionalization process of cryptocurrency or a prelude to the new cycle. From an optimistic perspective, the entry of traditional capital like Deutsche Börse and the substantive adjustments made with the SEC through confidential filing signify that crypto platforms are being integrated into regulatory oversight in a more controllable way, helping the industry move from a "gray margin" to "investable asset class." Conversely, from a prudent standpoint, this series of actions may be merely a preemptive move during a downturn to prepare for the next market wave—once the macro cycle and industry sentiment turn around, Kraken's stock price volatility will again closely correlate with Bitcoin prices and high-frequency trading volumes. For everyone paying attention to this IPO, what is truly worth betting on may not be the singular event of listing itself, but the yet-to-be-fully articulated long-term yield curve between cryptocurrency and traditional finance.

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