Authored by: FMGResearch

One bounce does not make a bull. The current price is still anchored within the structured range of Realized Price ($54.4k) and True Market Mean ($78.4k). Until it firmly stands above the key resistance level of $78.4k, the market's return remains tentative.

Crypto Market Summary

During this biweekly observation period, Bitcoin successfully broke through the stalemate range of $62.8k–$72.6k, at one point reaching the $74k threshold. This breakthrough strategically marks the transition of the market from the “forced deleveraging” phase induced by geopolitical events into a “preliminary stabilization” period. However, as a leading asset management institution, we must remain calm: “One bounce does not make a bull,” and until it firmly stands above the key resistance level of $78.4k, the market's return remains tentative.

Glassnode data shows that the support on the spot side is slowly recovering, and after experiencing continuous outflows, the 7-day moving average of the U.S. spot ETF has turned positive. Institutional funding's willingness to accumulate around $65k has reestablished the role of ETFs as a defensive central hub on the spot side.

Macro and Focus Points

1. Supply Cleared, Confidence Pending

The market is at a crossroads of “Supply Cleared, Confidence Pending.” Subsequent data insights will prove that this transformation is accompanied by a dramatic migration of liquidity towards high-certainty assets.

STH-SOPR’s “washing” signal: Currently, the 7-day moving average of the short-term holder profit ratio (STH-SOPR) is only 0.985. This means that new investors who entered recently are still in a state of loss realization.

The “So What?” dimension: The current profit supply ratio has only risen to about 60%, which historically is only a “primary exhaustion” level at the cycle bottom. Only when this ratio can consistently stand above 75% can we confirm the transformation from bear market repair to the true trajectory of bull market primary waves. Currently, it is in a painful transition period where holders convert from “tenants” to “owners” (Conviction Pending), and the volatile washing process is a necessary step in building long-term confidence.

2. Wall Street On-Chain and AI-Web3 Integration

The public chain ecosystem is shifting from “narrative-driven” to “industry application-driven.” This transformation is no longer a simple technical iteration, but a reconstruction of governance logic.

Market Overview

1. Mainstream Market Situation

The total market cap of cryptocurrencies globally is $2.49 trillion, up from $2.45 trillion last week, representing an increase of about 1.63% in total cryptocurrency market cap this week.

Bitcoin's market cap is $1.42 trillion, accounting for 57.02% of the total cryptocurrency market cap. Meanwhile, the market cap of stablecoins stands at $310.3 billion, making up 12.46% of the total cryptocurrency market cap.

The cryptocurrency fear index is at 13, indicating extreme fear.

2. RWA Market Scale

RWA.xyz data shows that the value of distributed assets has reached $27.35B. This growth is no longer a simple “mapping” but an industrial transformation of traditional financial infrastructure represented by Midas's "Staked Liquidity" (MSL) system—solving redemption queuing issues through pre-allocated funding layers, thus achieving a patch upgrade of RWA from a laboratory model to large-scale financial application.

Data growth is clearly presenting a trend of “violent equalization of liquidity premium.” This on-chain migration driven by real assets forces the regulatory framework to make defensive responses.

Hot Market News

The public chain ecosystem is shifting from “narrative-driven” to “industry application-driven.” This transformation is no longer a simple technical iteration, but a reconstruction of governance logic.

1. U.S. Stocks On-Chain and Financial Infrastructure Reconstruction: A Dimensional Attack on TradFi

Nasdaq Tokenization Pilot: The SEC approved DTC to launch a three-year pilot for tokenization services, using the “Stock Transformation Gateway.” The core breakthrough is: tokenized securities share the same order book with traditional settlements, achieving lossless “hot-swappable” integration with traditional clearing chains.

S&P 500 On-Chain Implementation: S&P 500 authorized Trade XYZ to launch official perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid, supporting 50x leverage while directly employing S&P DJI institutional-grade raw data. This model of “institutional-grade data + decentralized execution” poses a dimensional attack on the traditional financial system's 5×8 trading mechanism.

Jupiter and Pre-IPO Trading: By launching tokenized equity for companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, Jupiter is unlocking the liquidity premium of unlisted unicorns, representing a violent equalization of the equity liquidity system in Silicon Valley.

2. Integration of AI and Web3: Capital's Occupation of Sovereignty

Nous Research Valuation Benchmark: The team behind Hermes Agent, Nous Research, completed financing with a token valuation of $1 billion, with investors including Paradigm. This signifies that crypto capital is no longer satisfied with mere speculation, but is beginning to claim “sovereignty” over the top-level open-source framework of AI.

Mining Firms Transitioning to HPC: Mining companies like Bitdeer and Riot are leveraging grid resource advantages to transition to AI high-performance computing, achieving strategic synergy between energy assets and cutting-edge computing power.

3. Governance Transformation and VC Survival Rules

Solana's “HDB Politics”: Drawing on Singapore's governance logic, Solana is using airdrops (like JUP, JTO) and staking mechanisms to forcibly convert “liquid speculators (tenants)” into “asset holders (owners).” “Only those with assets will defend the country,” this interests binding is the underlying logic of its resistance against community centrifugal forces.

VC Paradigm Thinking: As Dragonfly stated, the industry is shifting from “heroism” to rewarding “stable sustainers.” Venture capitalists must align with LPs' demands for certainty (stablecoins, perpetual contracts) rather than blindly betting on disorderly innovation.

Macro and Regulatory Dynamics

U.S. regulation is experiencing a strategic shift from “crackdown” to “rule-based survival.” Recent dynamics from the White House indicate that crypto regulation is not just a financial issue but also a geopolitical game to maintain the digital sovereignty of the dollar.

1. In-depth Analysis of the "Clarity Act": Policy Fractures and Sovereignty Competition

This act is a nuclear-level tool for restructuring the “digital dollar” landscape and is currently at a critical stage of clearing the last technical barriers:

Core Game and ABA Challenge: A compromise has been reached on the dispute over whether “stablecoins should pay yield.” Although the White House report claims this will not shake the foundation of bank deposits, the ABA expresses strong opposition, citing serious flaws in the report. This public fracture between institutions reflects the deep fear of traditional banking regarding “liquidity disintermediation.”

Key Barrier Clearance: Negotiations have made substantial progress in sensitive areas such as DeFi illegal financial protection measures and the Democrats’ demand for “occupational restrictions on senior officials (like Trump).”

2. Administrative Exemptions and State-Level Reserves Breakthrough

SEC Administrative Exemptions: The SEC has issued clear guidance that if a self-custodial wallet interface does not actively solicit or guide routing choices, it will be granted a broker registration exemption. This provides a legitimate survival loophole for decentralized protocol frontends.

North Carolina Bill No. 327: This bill has passed its first reading and aims to authorize the allocation of 10% of public funds to Bitcoin. Its significance lies not only in the allocation ratio but also in the strict state-level audit and multi-signature cold storage standards, officially establishing Bitcoin's legal status as a “state-level strategic asset.”

3. Global Geopolitical and Geofinancial Integration

Direct negotiations between the U.S. and Iran on April 16 in Islamabad provide a buffer period for market risk aversion. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) insists that tokenization must anchor to central bank currencies and maintain strict interoperability, reflecting Europe’s defensive regulatory stance against financial system fragmentation.

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