If you invest with a mindset of a hundredfold in ten years, it is probably very difficult to have a hundredfold return in ten years.

Thanks to @chessxyz for the introduction, and I am fortunate to have met the partners at SIG. Many may not know who SIG is; in March 2012, Toutiao received millions of RMB in angel round financing, and SIG was the only institutional investor.

At that time, did SIG think that the investment in Toutiao would turn into today’s Bytedance? The partners at SIG told us during the review that they never thought about it at all, they just believed that the news aggregation engine had room for growth. That time, SIG invested $80,000.

Later, at the end of 2012, SIG invested another $1 million in A+ round and provided a $1 million bridge loan. In total, that amounts to $2.08 million.

How much is that money worth now?

According to FT in 2024, SIG holds about 15% of Bytedance’s shares, and at that time, this portion of shares was valued at about $40 billion. This means that $2.08 million has turned into $40 billion, with a return close to 20,000 times. If we roughly calculate based on a $550 billion valuation rumored in the 2026 secondary market, 15% would correspond to a book value of $82.5 billion.

If at that time we had viewed things with a hundredfold mindset, we might not have made the investment.

It is the same now, I always feel that hundredfold returns are for those who are prepared, but more importantly, it depends on luck. If a person can make ten times on a substantial investment in their lifetime, that is already quite good.

I’m not saying this to discourage anyone; if SIG did not have $1 million back then, it wouldn’t have mattered even if they believed in Toutiao. If we want to gamble for a hundredfold or even higher returns, it’s either based on luck or sufficient knowledge and financial reserves.

I always remember my former boss telling me that if you invest in 100 products, if you can hit one, you can recover the losses of the other 99. Unfortunately, not only did none of these 100 perform well, but even the next 100 didn’t perform well either.

Luck, financial reserves, and knowledge reserves are all complementary. First, work hard to make ten times, and then consider making another ten times on that basis.

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