On May 10, 2026, Iran sent its formal response to the latest proposal to "end the war" to Washington via Pakistan. Almost simultaneously, U.S. Energy Secretary Granholm announced a temporary pause in actions related to the so-called "Freedom Plan" and publicly emphasized that reaching an agreement with Iran through negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz is the "best outcome." The signals interpreted by the market are direct: the military confrontation surrounding Hormuz has at least returned from the possibility of "immediate escalation" to a path of "let's see how negotiations go." The issue is that Hormuz itself is a barometer for global energy and inflation expectations—this strait handles a significant proportion of global seaborne crude oil and natural gas; as long as the safety of passage here is questioned, oil prices, inflation expectations, and global risk premiums will rise in tandem, extending from the pricing of government bonds and stock indices all the way to Bitcoin and Ethereum. In recent years, BTC and ETH have been priced as high-volatility risk assets under such geopolitical conflicts and inflation narratives, while also being treated by some funding as "digital gold" or inflation hedges. The role of the dollar-pegged currency in cross-border settlement and risk aversion in the Middle East and emerging markets has been continuously magnified. This current round of indirect U.S.-Iran negotiations through Pakistan, combined with the pause of the "Freedom Plan," seems more like it is cooling off the already heated Hormuz risk premium, but the real tail risks—blockades, misjudgments, and the resumption of actions—have not disappeared, leaving the cryptocurrency market in a delicate intermediate state: hedging demand continues to support bottom positions and derivatives volatility, while risk appetite is tentatively returning, and the struggle between these two forces is itself the main variable for BTC and ETH pricing in the coming weeks.

The Pause Button Over Hormuz: Will Oil Price Risk Premiums Relax Then Tighten?

From a trading perspective, Energy Secretary Granholm's announcement on May 10, 2026, of a temporary pause in the "Freedom Plan" and the public emphasis on resolving the Hormuz Strait issue through negotiations equates to pressing a "stress relief valve" on the market. Previously, the tensions and military action expectations between the U.S. and Iran led the market to partially embed the potential blockade risk in oil prices; this narrow passage connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman is considered crucial for crude oil and LNG exports from major oil-producing countries in the Middle East, where any "sparking of a gun" could be magnified into a scenario of supply disruptions. Once the pause was announced, traders would first reduce their positions on the extreme scenarios in the oil futures curve: the war premium on long-dated contracts would be retraced, energy stocks would transition from a defensive narrative back to profit pricing, and the credit spreads related to energy would have a stage-wise narrowing momentum, reducing the implied probability of Hormuz being "blocked" within the pricing system.

However, this cooling seems more like slightly loosening a fully drawn bowstring rather than putting the arrow back in the quiver. Iran's transfer of the "end the war" proposal response through Pakistan and the U.S.'s shift to negotiations do not mean that the game structure has stabilized; it merely shifts the conflict from the battlefield to the negotiation table. If negotiations break down, the risks of actions like the "Freedom Plan" being resumed return, the scenarios concerning the safety of passage through Hormuz will be redrawn, and oil prices will quickly re-embed geopolitical premiums: crude oil curves will rise, inflation expectations will be pushed higher, nominal interest rates and global risk premiums will rise in sync, and all asset pricing models that rely on low interest rates and stable inflation assumptions will be forced to recalculate, which will also lead macro traders to readjust their allocations and hedging structures regarding high-volatility risk assets.

From Oil Prices to Cryptocurrency Prices: The Dual Role of BTC/ETH Under the Inflation Narrative

Energy prices are a hard weight in most economies' CPI baskets, and once Hormuz is perceived as unsafe, the crude oil curve will rise, quickly reflecting in short-term inflation readings and expectations. In recent years, the monetary policy paths of major central banks, such as the U.S., have been almost "led by the nose" by inflation data: when oil prices rise, the market will immediately reprice the likelihood of "raising rates again" or "maintaining high rates for another two quarters" in interest rate swaps and the federal funds path. For all assets relying on low interest rate assumptions—from U.S. growth stocks to BTC/ETH—every adjustment in the discount rate necessitates a downward revision in valuations; this explains why, when geopolitical conflicts escalate, oil prices, inflation expectations, and global risk premiums often rise together, and crypto assets are passively pulled into macro repricing.

Under the narrative of "high inflation + geopolitical conflict," Bitcoin's role has always been torn: on one hand, in the eyes of some macro accounts, during periods of heightened inflation concerns and strengthening gold, it has repeatedly moved up in tandem with gold and has been packaged as "digital gold" or a long-term inflation hedge; on the other hand, in terms of actual trading correlations, it has shown high correlation with high-beta U.S. stocks, exhibiting volatility far beyond gold, with funds prioritizing "de-leveraging" instead of "embracing new safe-haven assets" during genuine panic. Ethereum, on the other hand, has been viewed purely as a risk asset, more sensitive to changes in interest rates and liquidity expectations. Now, as the U.S. and Iran shift from military actions to negotiations, and with the announcement of a temporary pause in the "Freedom Plan," market panic regarding extreme scenarios in Hormuz has eased somewhat; some of the geopolitical premiums previously embedded in oil prices may be conditionally retracted, and the worst-case scenarios for inflation and interest rate hikes are slightly diminished. In this transition phase of "pausing actions and starting negotiations," trading preferences for BTC/ETH are likely to show tug-of-war: the earlier embedded hedging and geopolitical premiums will gradually release, while both bulls and bears will repeatedly negotiate the story of "whether inflation hedging can still be talked about," and the recovery of risk preference will depend on whether oil prices and inflation expectations can actually decline and whether the interest rate curve shows signs of easing, making BTC more likely to be viewed narratively as a "discounted version of gold + high-beta combination," while ETH continues to be treated as an amplifier of liquidity and risk sentiment.

Dollar-Pegged Currencies and Middle Eastern Funds: Safe-Haven, Settlement, and Offshore Channels

During the tense period between the U.S. and Iran, enterprises and high-net-worth individuals in the Middle East and the wider emerging markets face dual uncertainties: one is the depreciation pressure on local currencies due to rising oil prices and sanctions expectations, and the other is the tail risks of cross-border banking channels potentially being affected and the dollar settlement channels tightening at any moment. Under this combination, dollar-pegged currencies are no longer just tools for traders, but practical "offshore dollar substitutes"—they can circumvent some capital controls and bank compliance checks to complete cross-border settlements on-chain, while also allowing the movement of regional liquidity to a relatively neutral accounting layer before accounts are frozen. When geopolitical conflicts escalate and the risk of financial sanctions rises, the demand for assets like USDT and USDC within the region often surges, essentially using on-chain dollars to hedge against local currency depreciation and payment disruptions: importers can first convert payment into dollar-pegged currencies to lock in exchange rates and settle at their convenience; wealth holders tend to increase the proportion of dollar-pegged currencies, prioritizing the maintenance of cross-border transferability even if the returns are zero.

On May 10, Iran sent its response to "end the war" through Pakistan, and the U.S. Energy Secretary announced a temporary pause in the "Freedom Plan," sending a signal to the market that "the worst-case scenario for Hormuz has been deferred," which will directly adjust local subjective probabilities regarding the "dollar channel being cut off." With the negotiation window opening, some demand for dollar-pegged currencies on-chain that previously surged due to panic may cool: enterprises would prefer to return to traditional trade financing channels, extreme hedging positions would be gradually reduced, and on-chain dollars would shift from "safe-haven positions" back to exchanges and other risk asset positions, reigniting BTC/ETH beta trading; however, another part of structural demand—stemming from long-term capital controls and concerns about local currency credit—will likely remain resilient. For the crypto market, what to watch next is not just the absolute scale of USDT and USDC, but also the proportion of address holdings in the Middle Eastern time zone, the net flows from regional wallets to centralized platforms and on-chain risk assets, as this will determine whether dollar-pegged currencies continue to be used as shelters or begin to provide ammunition for a new round of risk appetite.

Implied Volatility and Geopolitical Tails: How Crypto Derivatives Price Conflict Resumption

In this intermediate state of "military de-escalation and negotiation dynamics," the first to speak the truth is often not the spot price, but the implied volatility and skew of BTC/ETH options. Before and after major geopolitical events, the crypto options market typically experiences a surge in implied volatility, a steepening of the short-term structure, and a rise in demand for put options, first collecting premiums for the "worst possibilities" before letting the spot gradually align through sell pressure. After May 10, 2026, the news switches the scenario from "immediate escalation" to "negotiation dynamics," and the front-end implied volatility has reasons to fall back, but the skew is unlikely to quickly return to zero, as the market must retain price insurance for "negotiation failures + 'Freedom Plan' resumption or escalation"—a typical manifestation is that trading in deep out-of-the-money put options with longer dated maturities resumes, and the term structure maintains an upward slope in the medium to long end, rather than being flattened overall like in a purely macro de-volatility cycle.

Hedge funds and proprietary trading desks often deploy the following strategies in this asymmetric landscape: on one hand, they utilize funding rates and spot-futures price differentials to perform relatively neutral hedges or cash arbitrage, while on the other hand, they purchase longer-dated puts or create spread strategies to lock in the tail risks of sudden downturns; some institutions holding substantial spot BTC/ETH will employ reverse contracts or put protection to gain certainty on "how far can losses go in extreme geopolitical scenarios." As a result, as long as the risks related to Hormuz have not fully dissipated, the term structure of implied volatility and the risk premiums for long-dated puts will find it hard to fully retract, raising the overall cost of using leveraged capital, with contract structures skewing toward "short-term spreads, long-term insurance," and the combined trends of funding rates, spot futures price differentials, and options implied volatility effectively form the real-time curve of the market's continuous reassessment of the likelihood of geopolitical conflict resumption.

Negotiation Windows and Shadows of Conflict: What Signals Should the Crypto Market Monitor?

Iran's formal response to the U.S. to "end the war" through Pakistan, along with Energy Secretary Granholm's announcement of a temporary pause in the "Freedom Plan" while stating that resolving the Hormuz issue through negotiations is the "best outcome," has shifted the U.S.-Iran confrontation from a "potential ignition point" of military standoff into a delay strategy window mediated by Pakistan. Next, the crypto market must weigh positions across two scenario lines: one is that substantial progress in negotiations leads to a revised lower tail probability of Hormuz being blocked, the oil price curve transitions from "highly strained" to "risk premium retraction," inflation expectations and global risk premiums decline, and the high-volatility risk assets and "digital gold" narrative of BTC/ETH experience a recovery in risk appetite, with leveraging capital willing to extend durations; the other is that the response is interpreted as tough or as wasting time, resulting in a breakdown of negotiations that triggers the resumption of actions like the "Freedom Plan," thus once again worsening the security in Hormuz, causing oil prices and implied volatility to rise in sync, pushing the crypto market back into a defensive hedge structure of "spot being sold and derivatives buying protection." From a trading perspective, three core variables need close monitoring: first, whether Brent and long-term oil price curves show sustained declines or steepen again; second, whether interest rate futures and swaps implied inflation and rate-cut paths are being repriced; and third, whether the net flow of dollar-pegged currencies in Middle Eastern and offshore markets, along with the implied volatility of BTC/ETH options and the ratio of put to call positions exhibit resonant changes, as genuine turning points often manifest first in these macro and on-chain curves before being transmitted to daily price levels.

Join our community to discuss and grow stronger together!
Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh
OKX Welfare Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=l61eM4owQ
Binance Welfare Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=ynr7d1P6Z

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。