Benefiting from the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, Bitcoin has welcomed a phase of rebound; however, the strength of this rebound is relatively weak and has not yet reached the expected price level of 78,500. It needs to be clear that the short-term rebound is not a trend reversal, and the main shorts have not yet exited in large numbers, maintaining the overall downward trend of the market.

The core resistance level for Bitcoin is set at 78,400, which is a critical lifeline on the four-hour chart and a concentrated area of heavy selling pressure. The current market has entered a mode of gradual decline, but the overall pace will be rather slow, with no abrupt plummeting expected.

On the daily level, the market has touched the 76,000 key support level. Given that the market has already adjusted for five consecutive days, a slight rebound in the short term is a normal technical correction. Here, I would like to remind everyone: do not blindly fantasize about the return of a bull market just because of one rebound; it is purely self-deception.

Looking at the weekly structure, the top from last week has formed a large bearish candle with no upper or lower shadows, clearly indicating that the market has weakened significantly, and a mid-term downward trend has taken shape. Coupled with the end-of-month market window effect and the market sentiment fluctuations brought on by the upcoming World Cup, an overall downward trend is highly likely.

The optimal strategy at this stage is very clear: short at resistance levels in line with the trend. Currently, the shorts are the absolute main trend, and operating in line with the trend does not require worry or panic; the risks of trying to catch the bottom against the trend are extremely high.

Official account: Big Bull Says Market

The above is merely a personal perspective on the market, for reference only, and does not constitute any investment or trading advice. Market fluctuations are at your own risk; invest rationally and cautiously.

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