In the past two years, the long-term chips that have been continuously "consumed" are being locked back onto the chain. Based on a holding time of 155 days or more, as of around May 21, 2026, the holdings of Bitcoin long-term holders have risen to about 16.3 million BTC, an increase of about 2 million from around 14.12 million BTC when Bitcoin price hit a historical high of approximately $126,000 in October 2025, completely reversing the slow downward trend that lasted for about 2.5 years from 2023 to mid-2025. More extremely, the "ancient chips": old coins that have not been used for 5, 7, or more than 10 years, were briefly activated after the ETF launched around 2025, with multiple large transfers of old coins considered "intergenerational handovers"; but soon, the on-chain movement of this supply fell back into historically low activity ranges, approaching the silence level seen at the depths of past bear markets. Now, with the price just months away from the historical high, it overlaps with the typical "bear-bottom chip pattern" where the total amount of long-term holders is close to historical highs and ancient chips are extremely silent. This misalignment between price levels and chip structure makes it difficult for the market to simply compare past cycles and focuses the debate on one question: is this a signal of seller exhaustion before a new uptrend, or a redefined holding pattern under the ETF era?

2 Million Return: Long-term Holders Continue to Accumulate at High Levels

The industry usually classifies wallets that hold coins for 155 days or more as long-term holders (LTH). This part of the chips statistically participates less in short-term speculation and is seen as a "slow variable" for spot selling pressure. According to AiCoin data, from 2023 to mid-2025, LTH holdings experienced a slow decline for about 2.5 years, indicating that old chips were continuously transferring to hands with higher turnover. By October 2025, when Bitcoin's price reached about $126,000, LTH holdings dropped to around 14.12 million BTC, a position that can essentially be viewed as the end of the previous round of long-term selling pace.

Real change occurred after the high. From October 2025 to May 2026, LTH holdings increased from about 14.12 million to about 16.3 million BTC, with approximately 2 million BTC returning within just a few months, completely reversing the previous 2.5-year trend of "selling while rising." More importantly, this replenishment occurred at a stage not far from the historical high in price, rather than in a typical low accumulation area, leading to a rare structure where long-term chips continue to accumulate at high prices, with holdings approaching historical highs. This means that above the current price range, the market is faced with an obvious increase in long-term supply, rather than a continuous decrease in spot supply structure.

Ancient Chips Go Silent: Collective Silence After ETF Craze

Among the "long-term holders," there is an even more extreme group that can be abstracted — ancient supply, which refers to BTC that has not moved on-chain for continuous periods of 5, 7, or even more than 10 years. Around 2025, the launch of the Bitcoin ETF left clear traces on-chain: there were once multiple large, long-unused old coins activated and transferred, momentarily waking up the ancient chips from years of slumber, and the market was once worried this would evolve into the beginning of profit-taking at high levels.

However, this surge in activity quickly fizzled out. The latest data indicates that after the brief fluctuations following the ETF launch, the frequency of on-chain movement for ancient supply rapidly dropped back to a historically low level, with many chips that had "disappeared" on-chain for many years, even over a decade, choosing to remain silent in the phase when prices are close to historical highs and long-term holders are overall replenishing. Historically, such extremely low activity for ancient/silent supply is more commonly observed near the bottoms of deep bear markets, but this time it occurs just months away from the $126,000 high point. This means that within the current price range, the chips that are really likely to be sold and create selling pressure mostly come from addresses with shorter holding times, while ancient chips have objectively tightened the overall size of the sellable supply.

Historical Echo: This Silence Has Often Appeared Near Bear Bottoms

Several on-chain analysis institutions have reached a common conclusion when reviewing historical cycles: when Bitcoin's "ancient supply" (such as old coins unused for 5, 7, or 10 years or more) reaches an extremely low level of on-chain movement, this silence often appears near the emotional freezing point of deep bear markets, typically corresponding to a stage where prices are on a long-term decline, losses are spreading, and proactive sell orders have been passively cleared out. Around May 2026, ancient chips once again entered historically low activity ranges, but this time it occurred just months from the historical high of $126,000, and the price remains in a relatively high zone, creating a stark contrast between the chip structure on-chain and the price position.

It should be emphasized that this "historical echo" currently stays more on the level of statistical correlation. On one hand, there is a lack of uniform data comparing various cyclical contexts, precisely quantifying the duration and depth of low activity for ancient chips, and indicators such as the proportion of LTH in total supply, the scale of LTH floating losses, and the precise scale of speculative chips have not been completely disclosed, which means equating the current phase with past bear bottoms carries significant risk; on the other hand, market interpretation is clearly divided: some institutions view the current silence as a continuation signal of "seller exhaustion, limited sellable chips," while others believe it resembles more a transitional feature of a new cycle following the ETF launch and the institutionalization of holding structures. According to the general advice from on-chain analysis institutions, this kind of indicator is more suitable as a tool to depict the state of market structure, rather than being simply equated to a certain inevitable "bear bottom signal" for price prediction models.

Chip Restructuring in the ETF Era: Who Is Becoming the New Long-term Holder

After the Bitcoin ETF was launched around 2025 and quickly gained volume, a large number of Bitcoins gradually shifted from dispersed self-custody addresses on-chain to wallets managed by custodial institutions. According to AiCoin data, these custodial accounts often manifest on-chain as a few large-value addresses, with overall holding periods being extended. Once the holding time of these custodial addresses crosses the 155-day threshold, they will be counted as long-term holders (LTH), without being distinguished by whether they are based on ETF products or retail self-custody. This means that since the LTH low point of about 14.12 million BTC in October 2025, part of the subsequent increase of around 2 million BTC in LTH may likely come from the "time accumulation" of ETF and other institutionally held chips, rather than new retail or early investor holdings in the traditional sense.

With the rising structure of institutional holdings, the definition of "who is a long-term holder" is being rewritten. ETF shares can be frequently traded on the secondary market, but on-chain they only reflect the net position changes of custodial addresses, causing the genuine turnover pace of chips to be "smoothed out," and the active and release patterns of long-term chips may differ from those in past cycles. Multiple analyses have pointed out that institutional accumulation will introduce new behavioral logic in dimensions like asset allocation, regulatory constraints, and scalable redemptions, making the high or retreat of the LTH curve no longer simply correspond to certain historical bull and bear nodes. In this new paradigm, directly comparing the current LTH with ancient chip data against early cycle analogs carries the risk of overlooking the structural shifts introduced by ETFs and custodial accounts being counted into LTH; thus, a more reasonable approach would be to first confirm the changes in holding entities and custodial forms before comparing the states of long-term chips at various stages.

Seller Exhaustion or the Eve of a New Cycle? What Signals to Look for Next

According to AiCoin data, as of around May 2026, long-term holders hold approximately 16.3 million BTC, an increase of about 2 million from the approximately 14.12 million BTC at the historical high in October 2025, compounded by the ancient supply returning to historically low activity after briefly activating post-ETF. This leads to the current dominant pattern of "long-term holder holdings nearing historical highs, ancient chips being extremely silent, and relatively limited sellable supply." On the surface, this resembles the structure of "seller exhaustion" near the bottoms of many deep bear markets historically, but due to the current lack of precise proportions of LTH in total supply, the scale of LTH floating losses, and the precise scale of speculative chips, along with structural shifts caused by ETFs and custodial accounts being counted into LTH, equating this phase simply to an "inevitable bear bottom" or "inevitable starting point" lacks data support. A more prudent approach is to continuously track three types of variables: first, whether LTH holdings at high levels continue to accumulate or shift to systematic selling; second, whether ancient chips reappear with rhythmic activity during sharp price fluctuations; third, whether the holdings of ETF-related custodial addresses are stably locked or show trending changes, while clearly distinguishing between "historical structural correlation" and "direct predictions for future prices" when interpreting any on-chain indicators, to avoid misreading the former as the latter.

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