Around May 25, 2026, the nearly strangled Strait of Hormuz was gradually opened by Iran—officially announced by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, stating that 32 ships were allowed to pass through in the past 24 hours, with the official phrasing being "phased reopening." However, the reality felt more like a throat that could be tightened again at any moment, with global oil focused on every gap of this high-risk passage. At this moment of the gate being ajar, a supertanker organized by the Swiss trader Lytton SA stealthily breached the checkpoint, carrying about 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude oil. This deal brought the company about 60 million dollars in gross profit, which translates to nearly 30 dollars extra per barrel—an unimaginable figure in normal trade, yet acknowledged by the market as a "risk premium" under the shadow of sanctions and blockades. Concurrently with the loosening of strait passage, the Iranian high-level delegation arrived in Doha—Speaker and Chief Negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran were all present, negotiating with the Qatari Prime Minister regarding the situation in Hormuz and the enriched uranium reserves, while also exploring possibilities for unfreezing frozen funds in a potential final agreement. Meanwhile, across the ocean, U.S. President Trump stated that an agreement with Iran must be either "great and meaningful" or not at all, reiterating that he would not sign any text that paves the way for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, clearly delineating a red line on nuclear issues. The negotiations remained at a prelude stage, and the strait was only partially softened; Hormuz was at once a bargaining chip for Iran at the negotiation table and a narrow passage for traders like Lytton SA to gamble on high-risk profiteering.

The Shadow of Disruption Persists: The Signal of 32 Ships Approved for Passage

Just a few days before the Strait of Hormuz was almost closed, the Navy of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced: in the past 24 hours, 32 ships had been granted passage through the strait. The number isn’t large, but it’s like a first crack in an impermeable blockade wall. Previously, Hormuz was nearly at a standstill, oil transportation had to be rerouted or rescheduled, and any ship daring to breach the blockade was betting its hull and insurance. Now, these 32 ships named "released" became samples for the world to observe Iran's intentions— the blockade had not been lifted; it was simply starting to loosen selectively.

Reports from a single source indicated that Iranian officials were conveying to the media that the Strait of Hormuz would be "phased open," but there were no details written into the public statement regarding how specific phases would be delineated, the timeline, or under what conditions tightening could occur again. While Iran was demonstrating through the near blockade that it could tighten global oil routes at any time, it was also using this batch of approved ships to show its negotiating counterparts: the right to passage could be allocated precisely, and could be revoked at any moment. For the market, "phased reopening" was not soothing, but a form of structured uncertainty—who would make it to the next list of approved ships, and which flags and sources would be prioritized for release, were directly tied to terms at the negotiation table. The shadow of disruption in Hormuz had not dissipated; the signal brought by the 32 ships implied a high-risk passage controlled by Iran where the flow could be adjusted anytime according to the situation.

A Ship’s 60 Million Gross Profit: The Life-and-Death Gamble of Lytton SA

When Iran turned Hormuz into a faucet that could be tightened at any time with "phased openings," the first to dare to push a ship through was the Swiss trading company Lytton SA. A supertanker loaded with about 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude oil entered this high-risk passage while others were still observing the approved lists and windows for passage. On paper, this was an almost undeniable business: the single-ship gross profit was about 60 million dollars, translating to approximately 30 dollars per barrel of crude oil, a profit level that conventional oil trade could hardly reach; this extraordinary price difference itself was a grey arbitrage space opened up by sanctions and blockades.

However, the numbers that could be entered onto reports merely reflected the upside of this gamble. To achieve an additional 30 dollars per barrel meant accepting all the amplified negative samples: the passage could potentially tighten again at any moment, the probability of accidents increased under heightened tensions, and any new sanctions, inspections, or even misjudgments were enough to turn this tanker into a sample for seizure and material for the next round of sanction escalation. Lytton SA staked its name on this "death route," hedging against the dual uncertainties of policy and firepower with a ship profit of 60 million dollars; this deal was from the very start inscribed into the footnotes of risk premiums, rather than merely being a dazzling profit sheet.

Doha Secret Talks: The Chip Game of Strait Passage and Asset Unfreezing

At the same time that the port of Hormuz shifted from "nearly closed" to "phased reopening," Iran moved another battlefield to Doha. Speaker and Chief Negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf personally traveled with the delegation, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and the Governor of Iran's Central Bank appeared at the Qatari Prime Minister's residence. This configuration super

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