Author: Biteye

Currently, SpaceX's IPO pricing is preliminarily set at 135 dollars per share, aiming to raise about 75 billion dollars, corresponding to a fully diluted valuation of approximately 1.77 trillion dollars, essentially securing the title of the largest IPO in capital market history.

If this scale is realized, Musk's net worth will soar by more than 220 billion dollars, making him the world's first trillionaire.

However, to wear the crown, one must bear its weight. The attention on SpaceX's IPO is not just because it could become the largest IPO ever, but also because the capital market is already in a heated argument over its valuation.

Is SpaceX really worth 1.77 trillion dollars? Looking at the extra 220 billion dollars in his wallet, can Musk sleep well?

Bullish: Underwriters tell a long-term story using Starlink + rocket launches + AI

The bulls believe that investing in SpaceX is not just about looking favorably at the rocket company, but rather about getting a head start in laying out future space infrastructure.

A valuation of 1.77 trillion dollars looks high, but if Starlink, low-cost launches, and AI business continue to deliver, the story at 135 dollars can be supported long-term.

1. Goldman Sachs @GoldmanSachs | X fans: 1.132 million | XHunt ranking: 12015 | A top global investment bank and one of the core underwriters of the SpaceX IPO.

Key point: The valuation of SpaceX cannot be understood only through the lens of traditional aerospace companies; it should incorporate Starlink and future AI business into a long-term growth model

Goldman Sachs estimates SpaceX's revenue will be about 160 billion dollars in 2028, exceeding 470 billion dollars in 2030.

Among them, the AI department is considered the most aggressive part. Goldman Sachs forecasts that SpaceX's AI-related business revenue could reach about 322 billion dollars by 2030.

2. Morgan Stanley @MorganStanley | X fans: 742 thousand | XHunt ranking: 32049 | A top global investment bank and one of the core underwriters of the SpaceX IPO.

Key point: The long-term value of SpaceX comes from the compound growth of "space + AI"; the future revenue ceiling is much higher than traditional aerospace companies.

Morgan Stanley also estimates SpaceX will have about 160 billion dollars in revenue by 2028.

More aggressively, on a long-term forecast: by 2040, Morgan Stanley predicts that SpaceX's revenue could reach 3.4 trillion dollars, with adjusted EBITDA exceeding 2.7 trillion dollars.

If you're buying into the entry point for space infrastructure over the next decade, 135 dollars is undervalued, but it will take a long time to realize.

3. Sacra | An independent research institution focusing on unlisted tech companies, mainly conducting in-depth research and valuation breakdowns.

Key point: The business outlook is bullish, but 135 dollars is not an undervalued price; it looks more like an option to buy into SpaceX transitioning from a space company to a space infrastructure platform.

Sacra estimates that SpaceX's revenue in 2025 will be about 18.7 billion dollars, of which Starlink contributes 11.4 billion dollars and has already become the company's most important profit center.

It believes SpaceX's core advantage lies in vertical integration: building rockets, launching them, deploying satellites, controlling terminals and ground networks, thus forming a cost advantage that competitors find hard to replicate.

If we only look at the current Starlink and rocket launch businesses, 135 dollars is not cheap. If one believes that SpaceX can evolve from a space company into a comprehensive platform covering satellite internet, low-cost launches, and more space infrastructure, this price becomes more acceptable.

4. ARK Invest @ARKInvest | X fans: 816 thousand | XHunt ranking: 1637 | An innovative technology investment firm led by Cathie Wood, with a long-term focus on disruptive technology assets.

Key point: While SpaceX's valuation of 1.77 trillion dollars is very high, viewing it through the lens of 2030 long-term potential is not completely without support.

ARK Invest's SpaceX open-source valuation model shows that SpaceX's expected enterprise value by 2030 is around 2.5 trillion dollars. According to its model, the bull market scenario is about 3.1 trillion dollars, and the bear market scenario is about 1.7 trillion dollars.

ARK's core logic is that SpaceX's value comes not only from rocket launches, but also from Starlink's global satellite internet network, low-cost launch capabilities, and many more space infrastructure businesses in the future.

Based on ARK's forecasts, the IPO price of 135 dollars still has some room for upward potential.

Bearish: Independent institutions believe IPO valuation is heavily overstated

The bears do not deny that SpaceX is one of the world's most scarce commercial space assets and do not deny the long-term value of Starlink.

However, they believe that the 1.77 trillion dollar IPO valuation has already incorporated too much of the future growth in advance, especially since the AI business still carries a lot of uncertainties.

1. Morningstar @MorningstarInc | X fans: 238 thousand | XHunt ranking: 98209 | A globally renowned independent investment research institution, regularly using fundamental and DCF models to assess company value.

Key point: SpaceX is a good company, but the IPO valuation is clearly too high.

Morningstar uses a DCF model to give SpaceX a fair value of about 780 billion dollars, only about 45% of the IPO target valuation of 1.77 trillion dollars.

In Morningstar's split valuation, SpaceX's core launch business + Starlink business is valued at about 611 billion dollars, with xAI / AI-related business probability-weighted valuation of about 170 billion dollars.

Morningstar also warns of two risks: Musk is a key figure for SpaceX, and there is a significant "Musk premium" in the company valuation. After the IPO, as the lock-up period ends, early shareholders and employees may bring selling pressure.

Morningstar believes 135 dollars is clearly too expensive, making it unsuitable for urgent purchases, and after the IPO, there may be better entry points.

2. PitchBook @PitchBook | X fans: 48 thousand | XHunt ranking: 49174 | A global data platform for private equity, venture capital, and unlisted companies, covering a large amount of unlisted company valuations and financing information.

Key point: About 1.5 trillion dollars is acceptable, 1.75 trillion dollars is somewhat expensive, but not completely irrational.

PitchBook estimates using a Sum-of-the-Parts model that SpaceX's fair value range is approximately between 1.1 trillion and 1.7 trillion dollars, mainly focusing on launch business and Starlink, without fully relying on the xAI narrative.

The price of 135 dollars is already close to or slightly above PitchBook's upper valuation range, which is not cheap, but if one looks long-term at Starship and Starlink realizing their potential, it cannot be said to be entirely outrageous.

3. New Constructs @NewConstructs | X fans: 5675 | XHunt ranking: - | An independent stock research firm, focusing on financial quality, valuation risk, and reverse DCF analysis.

Key point: SpaceX is not worth participating in at a valuation of 1.75 trillion dollars; investors are advised to avoid the IPO.

New Constructs rates SpaceX as Unattractive. They believe that the implied future growth and profit requirements at a valuation of 1.75 trillion dollars are too high, and SpaceX must simultaneously become one of the highest revenue and profit companies in the U.S. stock market to support this price.

SpaceX has inadequate internal accounting controls, investors have almost no voting rights, a large amount of IPO fundraising may be used to repay debt, non-GAAP figures can be misleading, and there are risks associated with related party transactions.

To support a 1.75 trillion dollar valuation, SpaceX's revenue may need to reach 1.1 trillion dollars by 2035, equivalent to an approximately 50% average annual growth rate over the next decade. Fortune believes this growth rate has almost no historical precedent.

New Constructs' judgment is most straightforward: the risk-reward at this price is not favorable, and investing in the IPO is not recommended.

4. Trefis @Trefis | X fans: 2661 | XHunt ranking: - | An independent valuation platform for U.S. stocks, deriving company target prices through split business models.

Key point: SpaceX is a very scarce company, but the issuance price of 135 dollars is clearly too expensive.

Trefis acknowledges SpaceX's long-term advantages in commercial space, Starlink satellite internet, and low-cost launches, but believes these advantages do not mean investors should ignore the price.

Trefis gives SpaceX a target price of about 79 dollars per share, far below the 135 dollars IPO pricing.

In conclusion

Whether bullish or bearish, both sides basically admit that SpaceX is one of the world's most scarce commercial space companies.

The real controversy lies in whether the price of 135 dollars has any safety net.

The bulls believe that investing in SpaceX is about the long-term story of Starlink, low-cost launches, AI, and future space infrastructure.

The bears argue that 135 dollars has already maximized the expectations in advance.

Currently, the subscription multiple for $SPCX IPO has reached 4 times, indicating that even with significant valuation disputes, enthusiasm for SpaceX remains high.

So the question arises, will you participate in the $SPCX IPO? Do you think Musk can feel at ease with this 220 billion dollars, or will he be restless?