Author: Chloe, ChainCatcher
In SpaceX's recent IPO, what is most worth noting is not that "the rocket company is finally going public," but rather how it has brought together US stocks, AI, cryptocurrencies, and passive fund flows at the same table.
According to reports, SpaceX (SPCX.O) opened at an indicative price of $172 on its first day of trading, with an IPO issue price of $135 per share. This fundraising amount is approximately $75 billion, with a valuation around $1.77 trillion, nearly three times the size of Saudi Aramco's IPO in 2019, making it the "largest IPO in history" according to market discussions.
On June 12, before the market opened, the three major US stock index futures were rising, and SpaceX was seen as one of the most important events of the day; pre-market quote guidance indicated that SPCX might open at between $170 and $175, about 26% to 30% higher than the IPO price of $135. This indicates that the US stock market is treating SpaceX as a "super growth stock with an AI + space + Musk premium," rather than just a simple aerospace manufacturing company.
Bitcoin itself did not skyrocket due to SpaceX's IPO; WSJ reported that Bitcoin was stable around $63,300 before the IPO; however, the crypto derivatives market speculated on SpaceX early on, with SpaceX pre-IPO perpetual futures on Hyperliquid pointing towards an opening price of about $175, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $200 million. This means that while spot Bitcoin remained calm, on-chain/crypto traders viewed SpaceX as the next high beta narrative target.
Large capital is reallocating for a scramble
Is the $75 billion IPO the largest siphon in history? The answer is: if we look only at the primary market of the IPO, it almost is. The $75 billion indicates that funds which might have remained in stocks, ETFs, money market funds, crypto assets, or other tech stocks are being redirected towards a new stock. More critically, reports indicate that SpaceX's subscription demand reached three to four times the supply, with potential demand exceeding $250 billion, meaning that the market is not simply seeing "$75 billion siphoned off," but rather that larger-scale funds are reallocating to scramble for shares.
This siphoning may not immediately lead to a decline in US stocks, as it may also bring about a wealth effect: those who are allocated shares at the opening benefit, index funds may anticipate buying pressure, and retail investors chasing new narratives could amplify risk appetite in the short term. However, the medium-term risk is that if SpaceX quickly gains inclusion into major indices, retirement accounts, passive ETFs, and model portfolios will passively increase their holdings, making ordinary investors' asset allocation more concentrated towards AI/tech giants' narratives. The Guardian's commentary also points out that the wave of SpaceX and subsequent AI IPOs may further bind American investors' financial futures to AI assets.
The best historical mirror here is Coinbase's IPO in 2021. Coinbase went public on April 14, 2021, with an opening price of $381 and a fully diluted valuation of about $102 billion; on the same day, Bitcoin reached around $64,800, its then-high. However, this "crypto finance enters the mainstream capital market" highlight moment later became a short-term top signal: by May 19, 2021, Bitcoin had plunged to around $30,000, nearly halving from its peak. Strictly speaking, from April 14 to May 19 was about five weeks, just under six weeks, but the direction of "almost 50% drop within about five to six weeks post-listing" holds true.
Therefore, saying that SpaceX will follow in Coinbase's footsteps does not mean that once SpaceX goes public, Bitcoin will inevitably collapse; rather, it suggests that when a representative company of an industry enters the public market with a very high valuation, it often means that the narrative has been maximally priced in. Coinbase served as "the coming of age for the crypto exchange and the crypto bull market," while SpaceX represents a "coming of age for the AI, space, and Musk ecosystem." Coming of age is lively, but it does not guarantee there won't be a hangover afterwards.
SpaceX holding Bitcoin may represent another institutional adoption milestone
The opposing view is that Bitcoin is not entirely on the side being drained this time. According to WSJ and Business Insider citing SpaceX's S-1 documents, SpaceX's balance sheet holds approximately 18,712 Bitcoins, at a cost of about $661 million; estimating at a price of approximately $63,300, this gives a market value close to $1.2 billion. This lends credibility to the Bitcoin narrative: it is no longer just an asset of exchanges, mining companies, or strategies associated with "crypto-native companies," but appears on the balance sheet of one of the most watched tech/aerospace giants globally.
However, this endorsement needs to distinguish between "symbolic value" and "financial weight." The $1.2 billion in Bitcoin relative to SpaceX's approximately $1.77 trillion valuation accounts for about 0.07%; it is sufficient to reinforce Bitcoin's image as a corporate treasury asset but is not enough to become a core pillar of SpaceX's valuation. Moreover, research also shows divergences: some studies suggest that institutional adoption alongside ETFs will increase the correlation between Bitcoin and US stock indices, weakening its traditional "risk diversification" role.
According to on-chain portfolio research by 2026, crypto investment returns are more determined by the timing of entry than the allocation model itself. Therefore, SpaceX's IPO presents a double-edged sword for Bitcoin. On one hand, the $75 billion IPO might become a siphon for risk assets, causing some funds to flow from the crypto market to more mainstream, more liquid AI/space stocks; on the other hand, SpaceX holding 18,712 BTC also gives Bitcoin an endorsement from an institutional balance sheet.
In conclusion, the short-term effects of SpaceX's IPO are more about "capital competition" for the crypto market, while the medium to long-term effects for Bitcoin lean towards "narrative endorsement." If SPCX soars post-IPO, the market will claim that capital is leaving cryptocurrencies and turning towards AI + space; however, if more non-crypto companies begin including BTC on their balance sheets, SpaceX's 18,712 Bitcoins may be reinterpreted as another milestone in institutional adoption. This is what makes it fascinating: the same IPO could be both a siphon and a stamp of approval.
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