Surprise upsets are frequent, some have earned nearly ten million dollars, while others have lost over a million.

Written by: Wenser

The World Cup has officially begun, and the prediction market is welcoming opportunities for exponential growth in trading volume.

According to a report by asset management giant Bernstein, the 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to bring up to 10 billion dollars in consumer trading volume to sports betting and prediction markets, as well as over 3 billion dollars in incremental funds. Previously, various prediction markets and exchanges have also launched incentive activities, hoping to attract attention and trading volume. With the opening of the group matches, dramatic upsets, weaker teams holding draws, and dark horses rising have all unfolded, giving players in the prediction markets their own moments of "sudden wealth" and "huge losses".

Odaily Planet Daily reminds readers that prediction market sports events are prone to various surprise situations, so following others’ trades should be done with caution.

World Cup profit representative account: 4 wins, nearly 10 million dollars in profit

First, let's look at the profit ranking, which includes new wallets that have achieved nearly ten million dollars in profit right out of the gate, leading to speculation about insider information, while also making one remark, "Football is round; anything can happen on the World Cup stage."

Player One: 4 wins, single-day profit of 9.24 million dollars

Yesterday, a smart money ( @mintblade ) made a profit of 9.24 million dollars in a single day through predictions about World Cup matches; all 4 of their predictions were successful, achieving a win rate of 100%. In the match between Iran and New Zealand, this participant invested 7.03 million dollars predicting "Iran will not win," and earned 7.34 million dollars from this single prediction. It is worth mentioning that this user ranks first on Polymarket's weekly and monthly profit leaderboard.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@mintblade

Player Two: First bet earns 9.06 million dollars, Spain's shocking no-win is the biggest winner

In the early hours of the 16th, the match between Spain and Cape Verde ended in a surprising draw. A new wallet ( @Fishalive ) spent 4.22 million dollars on Polymarket predicting "Spain will not win the match," and "Cape Verde wins with a -2.5 spread," ultimately increasing 4.22 million dollars to 13.28 million dollars, earning a profit of 9.06 million dollars.

Notably, they purchased about 4.7 million shares of "Spain will not win" at an average price of 9 cents, which settled at 1 dollar after the match, resulting in a profit of about 4.31 million dollars from a single transaction, with a return rate of over 1000%. This user, with a profit of 9.06 million dollars, ranks second on Polymarket's weekly and monthly profit leaderboard.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@fishalive

Player Three: 2 trades, profit of 5.2 million dollars

On the 15th, Polymarket user @LEEEROYJENKINS cumulatively invested 4.73 million dollars, predicting "Turkey will not win" and "Australia with a 1.5 spread," ultimately both trades were successful, earning a profit of 5.2 million dollars. In a single transaction, this user achieved a profit rate of 128%.

It is worth mentioning that although their single highest profit amounted to 4.8 million dollars, their overall trading still incurred a loss of nearly 2.58 million dollars.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/0x99aea8f9a64d0142b6b66a4b9d02a2211d45386f

Player Four: 3rd on Polymarket profit list, over 7.85 million dollars in profit in the past week

Polymarket user @endlessFate earned 4.7 million dollars in the past week. Previously, they had a total bet of 2.48 million dollars in the match between Saudi Arabia and Uruguay, predicting "both teams will draw," "Uruguay will not win," and "Saudi Arabia with a 1.5 spread," ultimately earning a profit of 5.67 million dollars; in the "Australia vs. Turkey" match, they predicted "Australia with a 1.5 spread."

In the ongoing match of "Colombia vs. Uzbekistan," they invested nearly 7.5 million dollars predicting "Colombia will win," currently earning over 2.05 million dollars. They are currently ranked 3rd on Polymarket's weekly profit leaderboard, with profits exceeding 7.85 million dollars. Additionally, it is worth mentioning that this user started participating in predictions on Polymarket in April this year, with an overall profit of over 6 million dollars after several previous losses.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@endlessfate

Current prediction for "Colombia vs. Uzbekistan"

Account’s performance in gains and losses over the past week

For more weekly profit accounts, details can be checked on the official leaderboard: https://polymarket.com/zh/leaderboard/overall/weekly/profit.

World Cup losing representative account: 1 million dollars loss from the upset, over 1.8 million lost betting on Argentina not winning

In the prediction market, where there are winners, there are naturally losers; the opposing side always exists, just in a different identity and form.

Spain vs. Cape Verde: 0:0 draw causing single account loss of 1 million dollars

Polymarket data shows that account @betoor619 (address: 0x70088c990ffae782c699b9250f5aa6cbe4e3c666) bought into Spain winning during the World Cup group match against Cape Verde, which ultimately ended 0:0, resulting in losses of 999,000 dollars for this user.

It is worth mentioning that this user made their purchase at a price of 92 cents, wagering 1 million dollars for a profit of 85 thousand dollars, appearing to be a guaranteed trade, which ultimately resulted in losses due to the 7 incredible saves by Cape Verde's 40-year-old goalkeeper and their extremely strong defense.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@betoor619?tab=activity

Lost the watermelon but didn't pick up the sesame

Messi scores a hat trick, Argentina defeats Algeria, single transaction loss exceeds 1.8 million dollars

On the 17th, before the World Cup match between Argentina and Algeria began, prediction market whale weatherman12 invested 1.81 million dollars predicting "Argentina will not win and Algeria +1.5." If Argentina drew or lost, their two bets would earn a profit of 2.65 million dollars.

However, ultimately, the Argentina team, led by Messi's hat trick of 3 goals, successfully defeated Algeria, ending the match with a score of "3:0." As a result, all of the invested funds for this user were lost.

Profile link: https://polymarket.com/zh/@weatherman12