This is an "informal" column from the Odaily editorial team. The author shares instant thoughts and different perspectives on industry news, data, hot events, and their intricate details; they discuss investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses that are still being validated—they may not be direct wealth codes, and could be merely the questions themselves; observations gained during interactions with industry practitioners are shared; as well as materials that have genuinely enhanced our understanding, regardless of whether they come from internal or external sources.

The content of this column is based on the real investment and observational experiences of Odaily editorial team members, and does not accept any form of business advertisement nor constitutes investment advice (after all, we are just as experienced with losing money). Its purpose is merely to broaden perspectives and supplement sources of information, not to create consensus. You are welcome to join the Odaily community (Telegram group, official X account) to communicate, question, and engage in banter.

Moni (@mich73692)

Introduction: Continue to strive, continue to grow

Share: The listing of SpaceX has drawn significant attention, with some believing that short-term prices are driven more by IPO capital games, market sentiment, AI valuation logic, and institutional allocations, rather than traditional valuation models. However, it always feels like SpaceX is not truly an "AI trendy stock" (the hurried merger with xAI before going public to catch the AI concept), at most it can be considered a tech aerospace stock, so I remain pessimistic in the long term. I experienced purchasing US stocks on Binance, and it was relatively smooth (I suggest transferring funds through wallets). However, to experience buying SpaceX at a price of $220, the outcome is predictable. My preliminary judgment is that it will be difficult to rebound to the previous high point before August.

According to the Kondratiev waves theory, if we take the release of ChatGPT as the starting point of the AI cycle, we are currently indeed in the "early to mid-stage" of the cycle, so I am optimistic about sectors like chips, storage, and photonics in US stocks at this stage. Similarly, according to the Kondratiev waves theory, if we take the birth of Bitcoin as the starting point, it seems we are gradually entering the "mid to late stage" of the cycle. Perhaps the cryptocurrency market has 1-2 more bouts of craziness, but it may gradually move towards the third and fourth phases of Kondratiev waves, similar to the real estate market in 2015-2016.

golem (@web3_golem)

Introduction: Golem's whimsical ideas

Share: I took a look at the SPCX options expiration structure this week, and actually, there are some insights to be gained. SPCX options started trading on June 16. After trading began, call options were significantly bought, as SpaceX's circulating share is already very low (4.2%). Therefore, some analysts speculated that the SPCX options trading would trigger a Gamma Squeeze to push up the SPCX stock price, but unfortunately, this did not happen, and SPCX instead plummeted, with shorts winning.

Back to now, as shown, SPCX is currently priced around $156, but the largest number of open contracts is not on the put side, but concentrated on calls at $170, $180, $200, and even $300, with the highest bullish green pillar near $180 (over 16K). There is no doubt that with only 2 days left until expiration and no major favorable news, $180 is the ceiling.

Conversely, from the structure, $150 remains the most important psychological and technical support level for SPCX. Once breached, attention should be on whether the safety net at $140-145 can hold. Currently, the support appears to be strong, but if Musk makes another bold move, a downward price breach might trigger a negative Gamma effect, potentially dropping below the issue price.

Looking at the chart, $160 is where the bulls and bears are currently battling. The open interest for the $160-$165 strike prices is extremely dense, and considering that there are only 2 days left until expiration, market makers will likely keep the price tightly "nailed" here to continuously squeeze the option premiums from buyers.

However, after experiencing consecutive price drops, a lot of capital is still betting on a sharp rebound in the short term. Thus, if SPCX can effectively break through $165 and stand above $170, there is again the possibility of triggering a Gamma Squeeze.

In summary, we need to remain vigilant in this high open interest area, especially not to open high leverage bets in the "awkward zone" of $155-$160. It’s better to wait until there’s volume stabilizing at $160 or patiently wait for a dip to $145-$150.

However, analysis and action always have their discrepancies, for example, yesterday I was fixated on buying SPCX at $145, but it only dipped to around $147, fluctuating up to $165 during the day; because I was adamant about the low price, I missed out on this fluctuation.

Wenser (@wenser2010)

Introduction: Tea-serving younger brother, crypto soy sauce faction, media observer

Share: 1. Unbelievably, the strategy’s STRC preferred shares were actually a play devised by Saylor using AI, and given the current situation, “American bean bags say: Sorry, there is indeed a death spiral issue.” As a barometer for the entire industry, it currently seems to require experiencing "desensitization from selling coins," and BTC must thoroughly breach the iron bottom of 49k for the next bull market to be possible.

2. Recently, I have seen many people discussing the concepts of "older stocks" and "younger stocks." I believe many Chinese concept stocks fall into this category, even including baijiu stocks, which are "Chinese characteristic targets" that won't last much longer. Still better to play with "younger stocks," cherish life, and steer clear of old stocks.

3. After the first round of the World Cup group stage, major teams have finally recovered their form. The previous strategy applies, buy predictions for the championship, and the odds still have an advantage.

4. With the Ethereum Foundation cutting jobs + ETHlabs being established, the official Ethereum organizational level is finally starting to get serious, but it seems even fixing the roof after losing sheep doesn't count. ETH is expected to first see the previous lows (around 890) in price this year.

Qin Xiaofeng (@QinXiaofeng888)

Introduction: Options enthusiast, meme buyer

Share: Recently, Ethereum has had several fundamental "positive" developments. First, several veteran researchers created an independent non-profit research organization called Ethlabs, and received support from major players like Joe Lubin (co-founder of Ethereum), Bitmine, and SharpLink. Their goal is to help Ethereum accelerate institutional adoption and improve core aspects like scalability, settling, and interoperability. Second, the Ethereum Foundation has also begun to "downsize," gradually reducing its role in direct intervention. Together, these two developments indicate that the Ethereum ecosystem is becoming increasingly decentralized, no longer relying solely on the foundation, with more smart minds being able to operate independently, strengthening the network further.

To be honest, ETH's price looks a bit uncomfortable right now; many people bought all the way down from $4000, missing out on many opportunity costs. However, the fundamentals of Ethereum are solid—it's just undervalued. Long-term, this is a good time to position patiently.

Another thing worth noting is SPCX; I personally plan to buy in early July, when SPCX will be included in the Nasdaq-100 index, leading to some buying pressure; I plan to hold until the end of July, and the earnings report in August is expected to be not very optimistic.

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